Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#271

Post by mywittyname » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

latortuga wrote: post #171

chasd00 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TCO is something I haven't thought about. My 4runner needs an oil change, and maybe an air filter, every so often but that's about it. What other maintenance is required for ICE that isn't required for electric?

The list is actually quite long! Oil, oil filter, transmission fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, radiator, hoses, belts/chains, spark plugs, ignition system, exhaust system. I'm sure there more that I have forgotten. You can even consider that brake pads will last way longer due to regenerative braking.

Except for oil and oil filter, those things are "lifetime" on most cars built today. So the service life is >120k miles, 20 years, or needs to be replaced as part of a separate repair. Power steering units are all electric now; outside of trucks, I don't think GM products have drain plugs on their automatics; ignition systems are all solid state. Even oil change intervals are inching up past 10k miles. Modern ICEs are surprisingly light on maintenance.

Tires are the biggest maintenance costs for cars, by a pretty healthy margin. I'm sure all Teslas are hard on tires. The amount of torque those motors put out is crazy, and they have an undersized tire relative to the weight of the car. Primacy MXM4 aren't cheap either, at $300 each for the smallest size offered on a TM3.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#272

Post by rjkennedy98 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

_ea1k wrote: post #214

rjkennedy98 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come…

> There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. The problem is that those issues are exaggerated for Tesla and understated for other makes. This leads to weird volatility with Tesla, IMO, and I think this latest exaggerated surge to a high valuation is a part of that. Execution problems? You mean like…

> The problem is that those issues are exaggerated for Tesla and understated for other makes

Execution problems doesn't mean bad cars, it means not delivering on margins, deliveries, ect. No one is saying Telsa is not a good company. They are saying that its not worth more than GM and Ford combined. I remember when I was investing in weedstocks when Canopy (who made no money) passed in valuation one of the largest banks in Canada who had a net income of like $11 billion. This feels the same way to me. Telsa's market cap is close to $100 billion.

Tesla delivered ~1 million cars. It sells a very specialty product (luxury cars) to people who have the money and ability purchase and maintain such a car. Its a very niche product. GM on the other hand sold over 3 million cars in just China, and it has BETTER self driving tech than Telsa. Aside from that, there are a lot of people for whom a Telsa is just offlimits (such as people like myself who live in urban apartments), or people who don't have the money (such as most of the America and the world). Its not an $1k iPhone its a 40k luxury vehicle.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#273

Post by Cshelton » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:25 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #173

Diederich wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you have time to try to use the remote app to turn the internal heat way up for a while to loosen the ice on the glass?

I did start the car before hand - it sometimes helps. Depends on how severe the freezing is. The sideview mirrors are still an issue though

If you read Tesla's cold weather tips, they recommend turning off the automatic side folding mirrors during the winter. Which I don't see as a big deal at all...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#274

Post by mbbutler » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

aerovistae wrote: post #101

woofcat wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

Chevy and Hyundai already offer EVs with better range than the Model 3 SR+ at a lower cost.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#275

Post by hobofan » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

buttersbrian wrote: post #261

slumdev wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

Isn't this ignoring other parts of the world? Europe single handidly can drive this market. Also large portions of asia that would love affordable electric vehicles (not ness "cars") for their densely populated cities. Never mind the short range cargo vehicle market throughout the world.

Europe currently faces a bit of an chicken and egg problem with the EV market. European manufacturers don't produce meaningful EVs which results in no subsidies that would accelerate the market (or those subsidies are also available to hybrids in their lineup which won't be driven in EV mode). In turn they don't have any incentive to move forward with their EV lineup, as most people are loyal to their local manufacturers.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#276

Post by phkahler » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

tromp wrote: post #240

phkahler wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> That’s because Tesla is a tech company not a car company The traditional car companies specialy is not cars. Its manufacturing and supply chain management. Tesla does seem to be mastering manufacturing, and being more vertical they dont need as much supply chain handling. They are not particularly advanced in tech from what I've seen. They do have a bunch of young motivated engineers that have a lot to learn and t…

> They are not particularly advanced in tech from what I've seen. You may not have seen as far as Sandy Monro [1] [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/16/munro-model-3-electroni...

>> You may not have seen as far as Sandy Monro

I've seen further than that. I did read something a while back that sounded like they have a nicely integrated inverter/motor combo.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#277

Post by isoprophlex » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

plussed_reader wrote: post #156

typon wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

Tesla's were designed to function from Norway to DRC; here's an interesting design question: How do you keep the heater from decreasing your range too greatly in cold environments? No passive heat source on EVs.

I'm joking but.. This Citroen has the answer! A petrol powered heater

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_Berlingo_%C3%A9...

"Heating

In order to minimise battery usage, a petrol driven heater is fully integrated to vehicle. It typically takes 5 to 10 minutes to warm and provides excellent cabin heating."

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#278

Post by dwags » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

I sold my car and now drive one of those Zebra mopeds in SD. Next time I buy a car, it will be electric.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#279

Post by CrazyStat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:30 PM UTC

FireBeyond wrote: post #225

CrazyStat wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles When I bought my Tesla in mid-2018 the alternatives were the Bolt and the Leaf. Both had significantly worse range--I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute for the next year, so range was important. Both were uncomfortably small for me. Neither matched Tesla's driver assist features for my almost entirely highway commute. Neither had fast-charging optio…

> I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute ... Tesla had two superchargers. Oof. The last thing I'd want to add to an already horrible commute is a supercharger stop, or more. > the falcon doors are actually super convenient (as long as they don't break) Kinda a pain in the ass in a garage.

> Oof. The last thing I'd want to add to an already horrible commute is a supercharger stop, or more.

The Tesla had enough range that if I was able to charge regularly I didn't need the supercharger, but it was a nice backup if something prevented me from charging.

Also stopping halfway through the drive and grabbing a snack while at the supercharger wasn't really a bad thing.

>Kinda a pain in the ass in a garage

I have a standard 7ft garage door and they can fully open with about 2 inches of clearance at the top. Not really a pain at all.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#280

Post by Cshelton » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I'm on my second Tesla. Model S (2016 facelift) and now a 2019 Model 3.

Love them. The Model 3 interior is amazing. So simple and elegant. But that is a personal taste.

The only thing I've really noticed on the Model 3 is the road noise. I've owned a BMW before, and it is a bit louder in the Model 3. Some of it is due to not having an "engine noise" to cover some of the road noise up. But it is not a big issue at all with music/radio playing. Sometimes if I'm trying to have a phone call and I'm going over 75/80 Mph (yes, within the speed limit where I live), I'll have to talk louder for sure.

In the end, I would not trade my Tesla for anything. Last year, I rented a Porsche Turbo S for two days because it was something I had always wanted to drive. It was fun, but I wanted my Tesla back afterwards.