Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#171

Post by latortuga » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #90

latortuga wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would never consider purchasing a competing luxury car (BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc) but I bought a Tesla. Tesla has a far lower TCO due to the greatly reduced maintenance. Electric is way more fun to drive than ICE. I feel like the quality is great but again this is coming from someone who has never owned a luxury car, and only ever owned/driven Hondas, Toyotas, and Subarus.

TCO is something I haven't thought about. My 4runner needs an oil change, and maybe an air filter, every so often but that's about it. What other maintenance is required for ICE that isn't required for electric?

The list is actually quite long!

Oil, oil filter, transmission fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, radiator, hoses, belts/chains, spark plugs, ignition system, exhaust system. I'm sure there more that I have forgotten.

You can even consider that brake pads will last way longer due to regenerative braking.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#172

Post by drummer » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

jppope wrote: post #55

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Except that flip phones appear to be making a comeback now.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#173

Post by typon » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:18 PM UTC

Diederich wrote: post #123

typon wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

Did you have time to try to use the remote app to turn the internal heat way up for a while to loosen the ice on the glass?

I did start the car before hand - it sometimes helps. Depends on how severe the freezing is. The sideview mirrors are still an issue though

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#174

Post by notJim » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:18 PM UTC

jppope wrote: post #55

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers is that they can ride the transition from gas -> hybrid -> plugin hybrid -> electric. I hope you're right, but from what I see, it seems unlikely.

Additionally, Nissan has the #4-selling electric car, and Chevy has the #2.

I think you are overstating your case.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#175

Post by kbutler » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:18 PM UTC

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #118

kbutler wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company. If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed. Market cap == (perceived) value. Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it. Like buying a used car and assuming payments: enterpr…

If you borrow $300 billion you still have $300 billion in assets. Unless something unexpected changes, Ford won't be able to realize that Enterprise value. The number of car companies will shrink, not grow, evs are just the wave over the horizon that will really hurt them. Tesla actually has a chance to drastically grow their sales.

Right - $300 billion in assets, plus $300 billion in debts means the company is worth:

  a) $600 billion
  b) $300 billion
  c) $0

If you choose anything other than c, I'd love to sell you some businesses.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#176

Post by igrekel » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:18 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #67

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

I had this issue the first freezing episode of the year. I applied silicon lube on the rubbers and on the lowest part of the window where it get into the door as well as on door handles. Hasn't been an issue since. Warming up the car before use with the phone app also helps but I always forget to do it myself.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#177

Post by vardump » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:19 PM UTC

logicIsTruth wrote: post #108

kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

> they have horrible reliability

Any references about this? So far I've only found evidence they're functionally highly reliable.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#178

Post by toohotatopic » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:19 PM UTC

mattlondon wrote: post #130

typon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad owns a Civic and a Lexus, this has never happened in the past 25 years of living in Canada (and temperatures keep rising over the years). It's happening due to the door design of Tesla where the glass does not have a frame around it. I made the purchase knowing these issues could arise - but let's not try to make it seem like these issues happen to all cars.

In my experience the doors on my 2006 civic used to freeze shut all the time in UK winters (not hugely cold either: 0 to low negatives degrees-C). Also happens on my current 2010 Toyota if it gets cold enough. These have traditional door frames but the ice often builds up between the frames and seals I guess. Bit of brute force was enough to pull them open. Windows need to be defrosted before you can open them too.

Rub talcum powder on the black isolation and your door should not freeze shut anymore.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#179

Post by lithos » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:19 PM UTC

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105

jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

The iPhone hit in a market where competitors have mutually agreed to hide away from regulator attention as long as possible.

That is most certainly not the state of the car industry.

And you can see how "old industry" will play with old wet cell batteries and newer batteries in data center spaces (newer batteries are considerably safer in reality with each cell monitored, with the battery wall automatically removing problematic cells, and requiring less than a fifth of the space of wet cells). However wet cell manufacturers have been really good at manipulating and adding regulations that make newer batteries untenable to have since regulations are purposely broad enough that each inspector you bring in will cited the same regulation as having a different meaning.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#180

Post by addicted » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:19 PM UTC

zwischenzug wrote: post #148

_jal wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.) Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I think this is hindsight talking. I remember thinking (and hearing): 'Way too expensive' 'I want a tactile keyboard' 'Nice, but I don't need one' and so on.

The only commonwealthidespread complaint was about the lack of 3G and copy/paste.

However, the overwhelming response to the iPhone was extremely positive. Even from non Apple sources.

RIM didn’t think the iPhone was possible when it was first released. Google instantly changed the direction of their Android project when the iPhone was released.