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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#261

Post by buttersbrian »

slumdev wrote: post #246
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

Isn't this ignoring other parts of the world? Europe single handidly can drive this market. Also large portions of asia that would love affordable electric vehicles (not ness "cars") for their densely populated cities. Never mind the short range cargo vehicle market throughout the world.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#262

Post by Agenttin »

FireBeyond wrote: post #220
nordsieck wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon. Depending on where you live, there are sometimes EV charging spots in apartments/condos. To me, this is pretty clearly a supply/demand issue. Today, there aren't enough EV drivers for condos to care, but as the percentage of people who own EVs increases, more places will install chargers. It's the exact same process that resulted in gas…

And you'll start to see free charging evaporate (or appear in the form of rising rent/HOA fees). Condos can afford to "subsidize" a couple of free spots for a complex, but they're not going to be saying "free electric charging for hundreds of vehicles".

You'll probably end up paying to have one installed at a dedicated parking spot and get the power charged to you. It's going to be the equivalent of renting a spot in a carport instead of a standard uncovered parking. Most of the Apartments I've rented have had covered or garage parking available, I've never paid the extra for it, but it's there.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#263

Post by sergiosgc »

auiya wrote: post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

Porsche planned to build 30k to 50k Taycans. It is a market test by Porsche, not a real competitor to the model S.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#264

Post by [deleted] »

FireBeyond wrote: post #225
CrazyStat wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles When I bought my Tesla in mid-2018 the alternatives were the Bolt and the Leaf. Both had significantly worse range--I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute for the next year, so range was important. Both were uncomfortably small for me. Neither matched Tesla's driver assist features for my almost entirely highway commute. Neither had fast-charging optio…

> I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute ... Tesla had two superchargers. Oof. The last thing I'd want to add to an already horrible commute is a supercharger stop, or more. > the falcon doors are actually super convenient (as long as they don't break) Kinda a pain in the ass in a garage.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#265

Post by mrnobody_67 »

pbreit wrote: post #154
daxorid wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on y…

Ferrari is at 8. Edit: not sure why the downvote. Ferrari has a $32.7b market cap on $3.7b in annual revenue for 8.8x. Tesla has $93b market cap on $24.5b in annual revenue for 3.8x.

It's a fact, but needs context. Specifically, it ignores the fact that Ferrari is profitable ...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#266

Post by cdkee »

auiya wrote: post #249

In the US, what sells the most (sadly) are pickup trucks and SUVs. The numbers aren't even close. The big automakers here know this, and have tailored their product lines accordingly. Ford is basically kept afloat singularly by F-series pickup sales, and have cancelled many sedans entirely. They have an entire range of different sized trucks and SUVs for every market segment. Same with Chevrolet. Now pan over to Tesl…

People have been saying this for years. However, none of the other players have built a compelling product with widespread appeal or adoption. The E-Tron? iPace? Taycan? All have been more or less dead on arrival from an adoption and sales standpoint.

Honda announced recently that they will be focusing on hybrid technology, not full electric. Toyota is backing their Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. GM has the Bolt, a single full-electric offering. The Model 3 doesn't really have any meaningful competition at the moment IMO. Tesla has forced the industry to change and from where I'm standing no competing product has managed to holistically match the value proposition Tesla brings.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#267

Post by vardump »

CrazyStat wrote: post #182
sixQuarks wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually don't consider Tesla a car company. They are a software company with world-leading expertise in energy production and storage. Vehicles are currently what they're mostly focused in applying this technology to, but that will change in the future. The stock price reflects the likelihood that Elon will accomplish the goals he has set out. If they solve self-driving, that by itself will be worth over 100 billi…

> If they solve self-driving, that by itself will be worth over 100 billion dollars. Sadly, as a Tesla driver, I don't think this is coming anytime soon. There are still significant issues with Tesla's hardware, like the cameras getting blinded when the sun is at a low angle.

> like the cameras getting blinded when the sun is at a low angle.

That sounds like a pretty serious issue for a vision based system. I wonder how lidars do in that condition.

In Europe, I'd also be worried about ability to detect crossing cyclists (when they have right of way) and pedestrians in bad weather conditions, like in mist or when it's snowing heavily.

Perhaps front sideways pointing radars could help with that a bit?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#268

Post by mmaurizi »

OrangeMango wrote: post #219
bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

> Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options The building that I live in is going to run out of physical space for electric meters long before it has issues with electrical capacity. My neighbor opted to forgo having a charger for his Model 3 and instead put one into the garage of his weekend home (he doesn't drive much during the week so he'll be ok). Given existing equ…

Isn't the solution to put smart meters that can track usage on a common meter and bill the condo owners for their share of the electrical bill?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#269

Post by bryanlarsen »

slumdev wrote: post #246
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

Which is why the cybertruck announcement was so huge. The styling dominated the headline, but IMO the biggest news was the pricing. $40K for a full size medium duty crew cab pickup is cheaper than the equivalent gasoline truck.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#270

Post by [deleted] »

addicted wrote: post #187
MrPowers wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Enterprise Value is absolutely not the “value” of the company. The Enterprise value is the actual amount a company will cost you if you buy it at Market Cap. IOW, if you buy a company for a $100bn but it has liabilities of another $100bn that means it’s cost to you is actually $200bn, because you will also have to pay that additional $100bn. That’s why cash reduces the EV of a company, because if you pay $100bn for a…

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