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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#181
Here is another possibility: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CCMP:IND

The whole market was up 25-30% (Nasdaq). Now, as a trader, you know that there are companies that follow the market return, or accentuate it (from both directions).

TSLA being a tech company meant that you got better returns (50%) which are not too far from the Nasdaq returns. Apple returns were even crazier for a company its size: +100%!

tl;dr: We are in a bull-market.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#182

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I actually don't consider Tesla a car company. They are a software company with world-leading expertise in energy production and storage. Vehicles are currently what they're mostly focused in applying this technology to, but that will change in the future. The stock price reflects the likelihood that Elon will accomplish the goals he has set out. If they solve self-driving, that by itself will be worth over 100 billi…

> If they solve self-driving, that by itself will be worth over 100 billion dollars.

Sadly, as a Tesla driver, I don't think this is coming anytime soon. There are still significant issues with Tesla's hardware, like the cameras getting blinded when the sun is at a low angle.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#184

My gut feeling is that this is a short spike because of all the people who wants to take a bite at rising stock price. At some point people will realize that this is a ridiculous amount of money for a share of a company which is yet to prove that the company is massively profitable. When the price collapse, it will be a steep down curve.

My take as well. At the end of 2019 the financial spam changed from "TESLA IS SINKING! SELL!" to "TESLA IS AWESOME! BUY!".

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#185
Does anyone else feel like HN is somewhat ironically a highly risk adverse community? (I say ironically because you'd think a community of those working in new tech would be more risk seeking than your average person)

Seems like every time an individual stock is brought up there's 10 people claiming you're "gambling" with a disproportional amount of risk if you do anything but buy the index for every person that dares buy a company stock.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#186
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

I think that you are close, but its more like Tesla is Apple now and the rest of the industry is trying to be Android. Where Tesla dominates the US with a proprietary charging network, others are slowing inching (or millimetering?) forward with open charge networks and a variety of new designs.

Eventually they are bound to catch up on volume. But by then, might Tesla have a significant desirability advantage? And in the auto-market, desirability is an amazingly effective proxy for assessing margin advantages.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#187
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company. If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed. Market cap == (perceived) value. Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it. Like buying a used car and assuming payments: enterpr…

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Enterprise Value is absolutely not the “value” of the company. The Enterprise value is the actual amount a company will cost you if you buy it at Market Cap.

IOW, if you buy a company for a $100bn but it has liabilities of another $100bn that means it’s cost to you is actually $200bn, because you will also have to pay that additional $100bn. That’s why cash reduces the EV of a company, because if you pay $100bn for a company that has $50bn in cash, you effectively paid only $50bn (which is the EV).

Market cap is the value of a company.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#188
post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I have had 3 electric cars: Chevy Volt, Tesla Model 3, and Jaguar IPace. The Volt was the worst quality, but a total cost of ownership over 3 years of around $11K, including lease payments, insurance, and gas, but excluding charging. The IPace is worse than the Tesla at around the same cost. It's worse range is really difficult if you don't have a fast charging setup. The software is obviously not built by a software…

How come you decided to buy the IPace? By all accounts it seems to be a terrible car.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#189
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would never consider purchasing a competing luxury car (BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc) but I bought a Tesla. Tesla has a far lower TCO due to the greatly reduced maintenance. Electric is way more fun to drive than ICE. I feel like the quality is great but again this is coming from someone who has never owned a luxury car, and only ever owned/driven Hondas, Toyotas, and Subarus.

TCO is something I haven't thought about. My 4runner needs an oil change, and maybe an air filter, every so often but that's about it. What other maintenance is required for ICE that isn't required for electric?

In theory, the electric car should require less long term maintenance as well, as there are dramatically fewer moving parts. These items wouldn't emerge in the first five years (and you probably have less to worry about in a Toyota) but eventually things just start going a little wrong, even with a healthy maintenance schedule. These mechanical failures are less likely in a simpler vehicle.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Hold market cap constant. Borrow $1 trillion. Burn the cash. Is the company now more or less valuable? By your formula, how has the enterprise value changed?

Absolutely.

Enterprise Value is a metric used for acquisitions to determine the real cost of acquiring a company (that’s why cash lowers enterprise value, since it helps pay off some of the cost of acquiring the company, and liabilities increase the enterprise value because those are additional amounts of money you will Have to pump into the company).

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