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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#211

Post by Dylan16807 »

mwerty wrote: post #153
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Steve Ballmer points out iphone's "disadvantages": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs The bet is that the advantages outweigh the negatives.

I don't understand your air quotes.

Being hundreds of dollars more expensive is objectively a disadvantage.

"not a very good email machine" sounds right, in comparison to something like a blackberry.

And that's it, he only listed those two things. He didn't try to make up fake reasons.

Something being better does not mean the disadvantages somehow don't exist.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#212

Post by Slartie »

ecwilson wrote: post #137
samsonradu wrote: post #45

Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.

Apple is up 100% in the last year for no good reason.

Apple is up 100% because it's kind of the safe haven among tech companies. It actually has the earnings to justify its market value even when using conventional P/E ratio evaluations. This means that if the current oversupply of "fantasy" in the stock markets, especially the tech markets, should ever run out, Apple will most likely be much less affected than most other companies.

Lots of tech-interested investors realized this and decided to take some of the gains made with more risky bets into this "safe haven", because this lets them continue to invest in a tech company at least. And that's why the stock is up regardless of any new groundbreaking product from Apple.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#214

Post by _ea1k »

rjkennedy98 wrote: post #47
klhiouyert98 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't fight meme magic. Old skool investors don't understand this yet. They see Elon smoking pot and they short. They see him dancing, they short again. They see his bumbling presentation skills and smashed CyberTruck windows, have a laugh and put one more billion against him. And then they open his twitter and you can imagine what they do when they see him posting absolute units of a sheep... https://fortune.com…

I feel this is a very small part of it. There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software. And it could go on and on. Tesla, lets face it, is a cult stock. If you believe in the valuation, that's fine, but there have been plenty of bubbles over the years and especially recently (bitcoin and weedstocks come…

> There are many legitimate reasons to short Tesla, including execution problems, car maintenance support, increasing competition, their poor self-driving software.

The problem is that those issues are exaggerated for Tesla and understated for other makes. This leads to weird volatility with Tesla, IMO, and I think this latest exaggerated surge to a high valuation is a part of that.

Execution problems? You mean like the delayed VW ID.3? These problems happen all the time. Reliability issues... hmm Ford had major transmission problems on the Focus, Honda had transmission problems on the Accord a few years back and Nissan has struggled with CVT issues for years. But these don't make the press all that much, because they are boring.

But Cybertrucks and an occasional battery fire? Those are front page news, and each creates wild exaggerated swings.

Overall the extra attention helps Tesla, of course.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#215

Post by AnthonyMouse »

woofcat wrote: post #115
aerovistae wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

>You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Not really. BlackBerry basically invented the smartphone, and introduced it to market success. We're talking pre-2008 BlackBerry is Tesla today. Tesla basically invented the EV, and is leading the market.

I think where the analogy breaks is that Tesla didn't invent cars. Electric cars are new as a viable thing and have some advantages and disadvantages, but they're not a difference in kind, like a Blackberry/smartphone was over a thing that only makes phone calls. They compete directly with the old thing on the traditional terms, like performance and fuel cost.

People are going to start preferring electric cars. They're faster and more efficient and battery improvements are likely to continue to reduce their disadvantages (up front cost and range). The traditional carmakers could make a strong commitment to electric cars right now, the question is will they? It's like asking Microsoft to embrace Linux in 1999. They could do it, and they might be better off if they did, but you can certainly see why they might drag their feet in a way that makes them worse off in the long run.

They also have a huge problem with dealer incentives, because the dealers make most of their money on service and electric vehicles need less service, but the dealers are the ones choosing which cars to promote to anybody who walks in the door. It's no use to make a great electric car if any time somebody comes in looking to buy it, the dealer convinces them not to.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#216

Post by FireBeyond »

bdamm wrote: post #103
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

I love the implicit assumption that electric vehicle adoption will run rampant, but at the same time, electricity costs will remain "negligible" and charging/pricing won't adapt to the increased demand...

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#217

Post by coder1001 »

MBCook wrote: post #74
qaq wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are ramping up rapidly?

It’s just that every time it seems like they might be about to start to get stable they launch some new vehicle and we go through another period of ‘ramping up’. The older vehicles don’t seem to get stable even though the S has been out for years now. People use the 3 (or truck or...) as the excuse for why things are still a bit rough.

For a company breaking new grounds and pushing EVs, I would give them at least another 10 years. It is not ideal, but you have to take into account that it takes time to build your network (charging/service centers etc.). That's why if the money comes, the rest will fall into place (in time of course!).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#218

Post by tempsy »

samsonradu wrote: post #203
tempsy wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh Tesla was $180 six months ago. That's a 185% gain. Far more than the S&P. Few large cap companies have gained that much in such a short amount of time. Don't rain on the Tesla parade. Or discount the price movement as "in line".

Sure, but you’re kind of cherry-picking, as it was $300+ in January. Tesla has always been more volatile than peer tech stocks, having crashed about 40% before this surge.

Either way it's a story about the short term spike since roughly a month ago. The price movement is not in line with the broader market or all tech stocks. It's well above it.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#219

Post by OrangeMango »

bdamm wrote: post #103
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

> Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options

The building that I live in is going to run out of physical space for electric meters long before it has issues with electrical capacity. My neighbor opted to forgo having a charger for his Model 3 and instead put one into the garage of his weekend home (he doesn't drive much during the week so he'll be ok).

Given existing equipment on the market now, our building can support maybe 10-15% electric cars. If you are designing a new building, there is no limitation. Our condo board has been searching for a solution and has found some things that are "promising", but nothing that will solve our problem before we run out of space. Again, this is a physical space limitation for the meters, not electrical capacity. And it's a problem where the solution will have to interface with the existing built environment and the existing electrical grid and the existing safety codes, etc. If all you pay attention to are single family homes with garages, you'll never know this is an issue until sales take a nosedive in big cities.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#220

Post by FireBeyond »

nordsieck wrote: post #113
jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon. Depending on where you live, there are sometimes EV charging spots in apartments/condos. To me, this is pretty clearly a supply/demand issue. Today, there aren't enough EV drivers for condos to care, but as the percentage of people who own EVs increases, more places will install chargers. It's the exact same process that resulted in gas…

And you'll start to see free charging evaporate (or appear in the form of rising rent/HOA fees). Condos can afford to "subsidize" a couple of free spots for a complex, but they're not going to be saying "free electric charging for hundreds of vehicles".
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