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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#201

Post by bdamm »

sokoloff wrote: post #149
bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

Many people's car payment is $0.

Then the car is a trade-in downpayment. Sure, if you can't afford a $20,000 car then there are very few Tesla options for you.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#202

Post by _ea1k »

hogFeast wrote: post #91
oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

I don't think your conclusion is inaccurate at all. Yes, enterprise value reflects total business value...but the EV of these companies is pretty similar given the discrepancies in actual profit. Part of Telsa makes sense, they are staking out a corner of the market that isn't big now but will be in the future. But the price you are getting for this risk makes zero sense (there was a very non-zero chance of them goin…

> The upside is whatever Ford or GM is now...and they are worth more than that.

I like Tesla as a car company and agree with this sentiment as an investor. There's a reason that I sold my shares, and also a reason that I never had very many. :)

Having said that, I'd like to add Toyota and BMW to your list of comps. BMW in particular demonstrates that there may be at least some potential for upside, IMO.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#203

Post by samsonradu »

tempsy wrote: post #160
samsonradu wrote: post #45

Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.

Uh Tesla was $180 six months ago. That's a 185% gain. Far more than the S&P. Few large cap companies have gained that much in such a short amount of time. Don't rain on the Tesla parade. Or discount the price movement as "in line".

Sure, but you’re kind of cherry-picking, as it was $300+ in January. Tesla has always been more volatile than peer tech stocks, having crashed about 40% before this surge.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#204

Post by sergiosgc »

Slartie wrote: post #155
bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized, which had been the case for a long time with a lot of EV charging spots over here, although only by accident - at least about 50% of the comparable gas price per mileage. Can be even more than 100% in some corner cases, but I think 50% is a good approximation, assuming you charge mostly at home.

I drive a hybrid and charge at home. My stats on electricity costs, after almost two years, is that my electric kilometers cost me 1/3 of my gasoline kilometers. For reference, it's in Portugal where electricity cost 0.2€/kWh and gasoline 1.5-1.6€/L.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#205

Post by Dylan16807 »

zwischenzug wrote: post #148
_jal wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" That reaction really only came from makers of competing phones. (RIM execs famously refused to believe the battery life was possible, Balmer threw very unconvincing dismissals.) Everyone else was standing in line to buy one.

I think this is hindsight talking. I remember thinking (and hearing): 'Way too expensive' 'I want a tactile keyboard' 'Nice, but I don't need one' and so on.

"Too expensive" is a perfectly fine thing to think about a product like that, and is very far away from thinking nobody wants it.

Qwerty keyboards were always a niche, and "nice, but I don't need one" is reasonably classified as an underestimate of the product but it's still approval.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#206

Post by bryanlarsen »

kbutler wrote: post #158
MrPowers wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Hold market cap constant. Borrow $1 trillion. Burn the cash. Is the company now more or less valuable? By your formula, how has the enterprise value changed?

> Is the company now more or less valuable?

More. Normally burning a trillion dollars would have taken about a trillion off the market cap, so if it held steady that means a trillion dollar gain somewhere else.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#207

Post by sokoloff »

bdamm wrote: post #201
sokoloff wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people's car payment is $0.

Then the car is a trade-in downpayment. Sure, if you can't afford a $20,000 car then there are very few Tesla options for you.

I can afford any production car. I choose not to allocate money that way and I’m far from unique there.

We drive 10K miles per year across two drivers. My daily electric (LEAF) costs me $0.05/mi for energy (and I love it). My wife’s SUV costs $0.10/mi for gas and a few pennies for oil (and she loves it). She pays $600/year max for fuel. That covers about a month of Tesla car payment.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#208

Post by Merad »

latortuga wrote: post #171
chasd00 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TCO is something I haven't thought about. My 4runner needs an oil change, and maybe an air filter, every so often but that's about it. What other maintenance is required for ICE that isn't required for electric?

The list is actually quite long! Oil, oil filter, transmission fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, radiator, hoses, belts/chains, spark plugs, ignition system, exhaust system. I'm sure there more that I have forgotten. You can even consider that brake pads will last way longer due to regenerative braking.

EV's definitely have an advantage in terms of maintenance, but I suspect it's a bit overstated. Most of the things you listed get checked during normal maintenance and might require replacement or adjustment once or twice during the car's lifetime. The big elephant in the room (and possibly an equalizer) is battery lifetime. How long will the battery really last, and how much will replacements cost?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#209

Post by bryanlarsen »

kbutler wrote: post #175
NotSammyHagar wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you borrow $300 billion you still have $300 billion in assets. Unless something unexpected changes, Ford won't be able to realize that Enterprise value. The number of car companies will shrink, not grow, evs are just the wave over the horizon that will really hurt them. Tesla actually has a chance to drastically grow their sales.

Right - $300 billion in assets, plus $300 billion in debts means the company is worth: a) $600 billion b) $300 billion c) $0 If you choose anything other than c, I'd love to sell you some businesses.

(B). The company is worth $300 billion to the bondholders, and $0 to shareholders, giving a total value of $300 billion.

And that's assuming the company is being liquidated. Most companies with viable businesses are worth a lot more than their assets because the big part of the valuation is assumed future earnings.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#210

Post by twblalock »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

As a followup for those who gave feedback, did you ever have a problem with parts availability after being involved in an accident?
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