Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#161

Post by zeroxfe » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #67

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

I live in Toronto too -- just use the app to turn on climate control 5 - 10 mins before driving. Works like a charm!

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#162

Post by CrazyStat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

logicIsTruth wrote: post #108

kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

> multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles

When I bought my Tesla in mid-2018 the alternatives were the Bolt and the Leaf. Both had significantly worse range--I was looking at a 180-mile roundtrip commute for the next year, so range was important. Both were uncomfortably small for me. Neither matched Tesla's driver assist features for my almost entirely highway commute. Neither had fast-charging options along my commute route; Tesla had two superchargers.

The situation has changed a bit in the last 1.5 years, but still nobody else matches Tesla's range or charging network.

I'm not sure what metric you're using for quality, but Tesla won me over on features, not name.

> Tesla's are pretty ugly

Subjective. The X is a bit strange, but the falcon doors are actually super convenient (as long as they don't break). The S and 3 exteriors are both very nice looking in my opinion, though I'm not such a fan of the spartan interior on the 3.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#163

Post by saturdaysaint » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #90

latortuga wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would never consider purchasing a competing luxury car (BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc) but I bought a Tesla. Tesla has a far lower TCO due to the greatly reduced maintenance. Electric is way more fun to drive than ICE. I feel like the quality is great but again this is coming from someone who has never owned a luxury car, and only ever owned/driven Hondas, Toyotas, and Subarus.

TCO is something I haven't thought about. My 4runner needs an oil change, and maybe an air filter, every so often but that's about it. What other maintenance is required for ICE that isn't required for electric?

The gp was comparing to luxury performance cars, which typically eat through brakes, tires and suspension equipment 2 - 4x as quickly as a non-lux/performance car like your Toyota. They also typically require premium fuel and have unimpressive gas mileage. I'm skeptical of Electrek claims that they're a better value than an Accord or Civic, but for a performance car/status symbol, they really do look to be a solid value.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#164

Post by throwawayhhakdl » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:15 PM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #95

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on y…

That’s a pretty stupid quote.

I mean, yes, context matters, and there are cases where things are overvalued (obviously), but the reason prices rise is because revenue (profit) is expected to grow. All of those “basic” assumptions seem to assume that there is 0 growth. The arbitrary ten year payback period doesn’t make sense either.

It’s like saying a baby can’t possibly get a job, and ignoring the fact that some babies grow up into adults. I’m sure a more clever analogy exists but that’s the best I have on hand.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#165

Post by woofcat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:16 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #116

woofcat wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain i…

Tellingly, though, Blackberry failed not in the face of emerging competition from the existing establishment (e.g. Nokia and Palm) but because it got one-upped by another, even more innovative platform by a newcomer to the mobile market. I mean, I agree that at some point Tesla is going to get beaten. But to argue that GM or Toyota will do it seems... less likely.

In a sense yes, the mobile phone market shifted from being phones to mobile computers, and a computer company dethroned them.

For all I know as cars become more integrated with computers we'll see an iCar, or a Google Car which will shake up the industry. Currently major car brands view tech companies as their competition in the long run.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#166

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:16 PM UTC

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#167

Post by sajithdilshan » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

My gut feeling is that this is a short spike because of all the people who wants to take a bite at rising stock price. At some point people will realize that this is a ridiculous amount of money for a share of a company which is yet to prove that the company is massively profitable. When the price collapse, it will be a steep down curve.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#168

Post by addicted » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105

jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

The iPhone was also ridiculously profitable.

The original iPhone sold for $600 and a 2 year AT&T contract.

The iPhone had a ton of pricing headway to make itself more attractive.

Tesla is almost the exact opposite.

Now, this isn’t an argument against Tesla or its stock price (that’s a different argument altogether). This is an argument against the idea That Tesla and the iPhone are in any way comparable.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#169

Post by CrazyStat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

igrekel wrote: post #157

logicIsTruth wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

Having tried all reasonably priced EVs, its not a question of style. My original plan was to get a Leaf but I ended up buying a Tesla. It just drives better than the other cars and you get a much better car with a larger second row, more practical cargo space with a Tesla than the other EV options. That is without mentioning that you have to wait months to get a Leaf plus or a Kona electric. The latest VW may be inte…

> "The name" is nearly a liability to me.

Yes, same here. I also initially wanted a Leaf, in part because I don't really want my car to be so conspicuous--before the Tesla I drove a tan Corolla, about as inconspicuous as you can get. But the Leaf (and Bolt, which was the other EV option at the time) simply didn't make sense.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#170

Post by cagenut » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:17 PM UTC

rhacker wrote: post #151

While this is great for a variety of reasons... I'm lamenting on the cybrtrck. Initially after the release I was kinda excited. Lately I have been wishing it just looked like a regular truck and did things that regular trucks can do - especially since I'm big on RVs: Cab over (fuck out of luck there). Fifth wheel? (Bed is probably not standard and probably no one will have the knowledge of putting in the rails or a p…

thats not how you ship a v1

what is it about cars that make all software engineers turn into junior product managers.