Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#151

Post by rhacker » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

While this is great for a variety of reasons... I'm lamenting on the cybrtrck. Initially after the release I was kinda excited. Lately I have been wishing it just looked like a regular truck and did things that regular trucks can do - especially since I'm big on RVs: Cab over (fuck out of luck there). Fifth wheel? (Bed is probably not standard and probably no one will have the knowledge of putting in the rails or a puck system.

In other words we're looking at best travel trailers. I'm also sceptical they're going to the enough standard tow package equipment. I just have this feeling that no one that works at Tesla owns trucks and tows things. (And when I say no one, I just feel like if 10% of the staff owns a dually that's not enough).

If they don't put up a standard compete like Rivian, they're going to lose HUGE in this category.

One last secondary gripe here - they keep saying it has more utility than a regular truck but here I am pointing out all the things it can't do that a typical truck can. Beyond that, can you even ATTACH a snow plow?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#152

Post by slg » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

SEJeff wrote: post #126

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

In addition to the very large market opportunity for their stationary storage batteries and solar panels / solar tiles. You can sell those big grid scale megapacks to virtually every government in the world. You can't necessarily sell Tesla cars to every person in most of the third world (or western first world for that matter!).

There is also the potential taxi and trucking businesses if they ever nail self driving. These side businesses are what a lot of people are missing in the comments only talking about Tesla's car business. They are diversifying in a way that some other car companies aren't. I'm not 100% sure that the self driving tech will get where it needs to be for this to become viable anytime soon, but the same applies to Uber and they have a market cap near $60 billion largely based off that same upside.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#153

Post by mwerty » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

jansan wrote: post #89

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Steve Ballmer points out iphone's "disadvantages": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs

The bet is that the advantages outweigh the negatives.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#154

Post by pbreit » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #95

oliverx0 wrote: post #11

According to Robinhood: “Tesla's stock has jumped 35% over the past month, becoming the most valuable American car company ever. GM and Ford produced a combined 39x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019, but the electric carmaker is now more valuable than GM and Ford combined. Oh, and Tesla lost almost a billion dollars over the past year while GM and Ford made over $10B in profit. Investors care more about future profit…

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on y…

Ferrari is at 8.

Edit: not sure why the downvote.

Ferrari has a $32.7b market cap on $3.7b in annual revenue for 8.8x.

Tesla has $93b market cap on $24.5b in annual revenue for 3.8x.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#155

Post by Slartie » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:10 PM UTC

bdamm wrote: post #103

jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

At least in Germany, that math doesn't add up. Electricity is - if it's not heavily subsidized, which had been the case for a long time with a lot of EV charging spots over here, although only by accident - at least about 50% of the comparable gas price per mileage. Can be even more than 100% in some corner cases, but I think 50% is a good approximation, assuming you charge mostly at home.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#156

Post by plussed_reader » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:10 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #67

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

It was -5C in Toronto last night. This morning, I couldn't get into my Model 3 because the door glass was frozen. I got some hot water from the washroom and poured it over the glass and got it unstuck. Then I couldn't drive because the sideview mirrors were stuck folded. Got some more hot water and got them unstuck. Maybe the car is designed for California weather only, but in the winter i've had these types of issue…

Tesla's were designed to function from Norway to DRC; here's an interesting design question:

How do you keep the heater from decreasing your range too greatly in cold environments? No passive heat source on EVs.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#157

Post by igrekel » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:11 PM UTC

logicIsTruth wrote: post #108

kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

Having tried all reasonably priced EVs, its not a question of style. My original plan was to get a Leaf but I ended up buying a Tesla. It just drives better than the other cars and you get a much better car with a larger second row, more practical cargo space with a Tesla than the other EV options. That is without mentioning that you have to wait months to get a Leaf plus or a Kona electric. The latest VW may be interesting but it didn't exist at the time. I don't see where the higher quality electric vehicles are coming from.

It is a very polarizing car, some strangers will go up to you and tell you how Tesla will go bankrupt, you'll have no one to service the car, it will lose all its value and other things like that. "The name" is nearly a liability to me. It is just a car, it is useful.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#158

Post by kbutler » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:12 PM UTC

MrPowers wrote: post #111

kbutler wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, those other claim holders represent reductions in the value of the company. If I borrow $300 billion (heh) and call myself a car company, that doesn't make me a more valuable company than Ford and Tesla combined - my net worth hasn't changed. Market cap == (perceived) value. Enterprise value is the COST TO PURCHASE the company, if I'm considering buying it. Like buying a used car and assuming payments: enterpr…

The enterprise value is the value of a company. enterprise_value = market_cap + debt - cash Different companies are capitalized differently - some use all equity, some all debt, some a mix. Not sure I agree that other claim holders represent reductions in the "value of the company". The same company can be capitalized different ways - the enterprise value for that company should be unchanged.

Hold market cap constant.

Borrow $1 trillion. Burn the cash.

Is the company now more or less valuable?

By your formula, how has the enterprise value changed?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#159

Post by Robotbeat » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:13 PM UTC

aj7 wrote: post #34

The correction will be precipitous. There is no reason to believe that even at the 1M vehicle level, they can be so profitable, when engaged with direct competition with other experienced producers, to justify such a market capitalization. The same cost issues will affect all companies, and I believe some Tesla technical advantages will erode.

I think the reason why Tesla is valued highly is that they won't stop growing at 1M vehicle production rate. (Whereas GM and others like it are stagnating or even declining in vehicle production: https://www.statista.com/statistics/225326/amount-of-cars-so... )

They're selling mostly cars in their home market which is dominated by trucks and crossovers. They have a mass market crossover coming to market this year and a truck soon after. Overseas, they just built their first new factory in the biggest EV market in the world (China) that seems to already be doing well, and they're already starting to clear land on their European factory (whose market ought to be bigger than the North American market as well).

The wild card is climate action. If the world has to severely cut back on fossil fuels, electric vehicles will be enormous, and Tesla's are the most compelling by a large margin, in spite of several attempts by large carmakers. There's also the storage market, the solar roof market (granted, mostly a California thing for now for Tesla), grid storage market (fairly large and likely to get much larger if climate action becomes critical), and the Semi truck (which is MUCH more compelling than other electric trucks, by an even larger margin than, say, the X is versus the e-tron).

So I think long-term they have a decent chance of producing millions of vehicles and with significant revenue from non-passenger-vehicles like grid storage and long-haul trucking. If there's a 50:50 chance of global climate mobilization, that's a 50:50 chance of market conditions basically perfect for Tesla... and even without that (as in right now), they seem to be capable of being marginally profitable and still growing. So the upside is high and the downside is low.

I haven't mentioned autopilot or self-driving because I think the case for Tesla's value is strong without that more questionable argument.

I hold no individual stock.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#160

Post by tempsy » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

samsonradu wrote: post #45

Just to provide some context, most indexes and large tech companies are at an all-time-high. It’s not just Tesla ‘doing great’.

Uh Tesla was $180 six months ago. That's a 185% gain. Far more than the S&P. Few large cap companies have gained that much in such a short amount of time.

Don't rain on the Tesla parade. Or discount the price movement as "in line".