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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#231

Post by jayd16 »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

I really doubt dashcams and gps will be required in the next decade but I bet installing them will get you a discount of some kind.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#232

Post by Spooky23 »

RivieraKid wrote: post #180
mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

The GPS thing is unlikely, what would be the rationale of that? This would be a very unpopular policy.

Taxes and demand based tolls.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#233

Post by throwawayhhakdl »

petters wrote: post #220
RivieraKid wrote: post #175

> Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies Why? I don't see what would be the benefit of that. Fiat currency already is digital. And - at least where I live - domestic transfers are instant.

Giving each citizen an account at the central bank. Then everyone will have access to "real" money digitally (not only via cash, which is currently the case).

who exactly does that help?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#234

Post by arnaudsm »

ianai wrote: post #162

The predictions about China are a little confusing. I know they’ve copied lots of foreign tech, but have they demonstrated any ability to source original research and development that had no external links? This read a little like what China would want the 2020s to look like.

I agree. Except for mass manufacturing and stolen tech, most chinese tech is smoke and mirrors at the moment. Chinese research is famously low-quality given that most researchers are paid by the paper.

I hope their fusion and quantum experiments are real, and not PR lies like the soviet union used to do in the 80s.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#235

Post by chefkoch »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #185
golergka wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best the world can hope for Saudi Arabia is the status quo. As authoritarian and barbaric as they are, the problem is, Saudi's internal opposition isn't some liberal freedom lovers – it's much more radical religious fanatics that would turn the country in (in essence) ISIS, but with oil and wealth. The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of w…

>The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately. I doubt it. Saud family were interested in fighting the Ottomans, as were the British in WW1, and their interests aligned then. And during WW2, once it was found to provide access to oil, it only made sense for the west to make sure a stable…

> prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people.

Isn't the wealth distributed to the saudis to keep them happy and inline?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#236

Post by opportune »

I don’t really buy into 4-6.

I don’t see any benefit for a country to turn its currency into a crypto asset. Either they are relinquishing a great deal of control in democratizing their financial system (also exposing themselves to attack), or it’s a crypto in name only that doesn’t seem any better than digital cash through banks except for a buzzword.

Decentralization is hit or miss. You get economies of scale with centralization that are hard to beat. I only see decentralization being useful for certain applications (namely, anything that needs to be censorship resistant/ can’t rely on the centralized infra for some reason) like it already is being used for.

Meat won’t be a delicacy unless we are not counting lab grown meat. Absolutely no way. I would be willing to take a huge bet on this. People all over the world love meat, it’s one of the first things people start spending on when they hit middle income (globally speaking). Plant based alternatives will become a lot more popular especially once they become cheaper, and we will probably start eating mostly lab grown meat, but meat will be consumed, at least by stubborn, older red-blooded Americans wary of technology and set in their ways that the author likely has little exposure to.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#237

Post by streblo »

RivieraKid wrote: post #180
mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

The GPS thing is unlikely, what would be the rationale of that? This would be a very unpopular policy.

If you ride a rented scooter from e.g. Lime or Bird, your GPS location is being streamed in real-time to many of the departments of transportation in the cities in which they operate[1][2]. It's not a quantum leap to assume cars will follow, especially if they're autonomously operated by some central service, doubly so if they're rented (e.g. from Uber) and not individually owned.

1. https://slate.com/business/2019/04/scooter-data-cities-mds-u... 2. https://blog.remix.com/mds-gbfs-and-how-cities-can-ask-for-d...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#238

Post by NeedMoreTea »

almost_usual wrote: post #214
ianai wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doomed to fail based on what?

Witness what’s going on in Hong Kong? There’s plenty of speculation that what’s happening there is being funded or supported by an opposing party in China. Older generations are also implicitly supporting protestors there very carefully. The young college kids are who everyone sees but there is a lot happening behind the curtain. China has had multiple generations of unrest. It isn’t just the young generation that is…

The older generation in Hong Kong, if my friends there are in any way representative (all adults at 97 handover, like me) in what they tell me, simply hold the same resentments they did in 98, 99, 00 etc for the changes China has made to their home and how it is governed, and the constant chipping away at what they have. Some of those friends have been out on the marches and protests across the years, not just 2019's. First demo in favour of universal suffrage was probably in 98 when China dismantled the electoral system for the LegCo and replaced with the pro-Beijing weighted system. Universal suffrage of the Chief Exec was promised right back then.

It doesn't need an opposing mainland party to explain HK. There may be, but I see little evidence for it.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#239

Post by amelius »

ken wrote: post #161
PaulAJ wrote: post #32

Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).

I assumed that was covered by #8 ("The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy"), somewhat by #9 ("Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions"), and mostly the second half of #5 ("a killer decentralized consumer app"). Network effects of centralization explain why current big companies prefer to build centralized services -- but the next big idea never comes fr…

> We've already got a billion tiny data centers -- the powerful computers and smartphones in our houses and pockets.

With asymmetric up/download speeds.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#240

Post by arnaudsm »

bransonf wrote: post #209

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade i…

I agree except with your last sentence. They have the biggest total pollution, but their pollution per capita is actually low compared to eastern countries, and they are investing and legislating aggressively for clean tech.
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