151–160 of 692 posts
> The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. I don't think so. WWII was a war between two fronts. Climate change affects countries very differently. The ones not affected much will unlikely contribute. My guess is that everyone to his own in this one. > experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders wh…
I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…
My favorite concept of that discussion was virtual guardians to protect your flow - look, you can interrupt that developer but you’re gonna have to defeat his virtual dragon first.
Some of the points made here I agree with, probably slightly more accurate that the other warped predictions I’ve seen so far. However, I question that predictions /2 and /6 seem to be wildly far-fetched that it’s as if the author based his predictions from a damaged magic mirror. /2) While the tech is there for automation, Several safety and regulatory requirements the AI technology is not transparent enough to comp…
Just look at how comical this stuff is:
> Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today.
In one decade? Dominating the whole world and meat becoming a delicacy. That's such a bad prediction it's borderline sad. Maybe over the course of 50-100 years. It would take a decade just to scratch the surface of that prediction. It'll take decades just to scale up the necessary food production changes and distribution required by that prediction. He entirely ignores the massive investment required, the slow moving nature of it, the entrenched gatekeepers that dictate food policies, and the very slow moving nature of changing global consumer taste & demand (more likely to occur via aging out and new young people adopting, rather than true mass adoption by existing people that have all been eating meat for the entire lives; that will take a long time).
> Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies, will become the dominant capital markets for all types of financial instruments.
Things at that scale, dominated as they are in finance by giants with vested interests and tightly regulated and influenced directly by military muscle, do not change that much in the span of ten years or less. Another absurd, impossible prediction. This is Fred going overboard on a crypto binge.
He might as well have said in his list that we'll all be piloting flying cars in ten years. It's the exact same bullshit worthless futurism fantasy backed with the exact same supporting basis (vapor).
> China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower leveraging its technical prowess and ability to adapt quickly to changing priorities
In ten years the US will still have the only global projection military and will still have the world's largest economy. Another obvious error of projection by Fred and a bad one at that. If everything goes right for China, in 30 years they could theoretically occupy a dominant superpower position. That's best case scenario. However what is most likely is that China will split the world in half with the US and never achieve such an overwhelming position and that they'll suffer stagnation due to well understood problems they're already sinking under (demographics, debt, increasingly extreme authoritarianism).
Basically none of what he lists in item #1 will occur in the next decade. Most of it is so impossible to occur in the span of just ten years, that again, it's super far fetched. Someone should have screened all of this for him before he hit publish.
There are two wealth in this world: financial wealth, and demographic wealth. Both are limited by natural resources, so it should come as no surprise that they are declining. Humanity will be confronted with the principle of reality.
I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…
The climate crisis will be exacerbated by the increasing centralization of large cities. Humans are tending towards centralized population hubs, and away from rural areas. This will be the main catalyst for adopting greener infrastructure. Fear of permanent climate change will not be the catalyst, as that is a long term repercussion of not solving the pollution problem, and humans have never been good about preparing…
I'm not following your logic. Yes, humans are leaving rural communities for cities, but I'm not sure how that exacerbates climate problems...unless they're all moving to New Orleans.
Agree with all, except the crypto currency bit. Asia (China) would not have an incentive politically to run with it, as it would remove traceability and control of money flow. Not to mention online currencies pitfalls.
Crypto currencies have failed to be useful as currencies, so I'm not sure why governments would be so eager to try them.
All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…
Your last point got me thinking about people sitting in a dark room waiting for autonomous cars to have trouble on the road then alert them to intervene, turning 1 driver:1 car into 1 driver:20 cars.
I would take a pessimistic view on #8: > Mass surveillance by governments and corporations will become normal and expected this decade and people will increasingly turn to new products and services to protect themselves from surveillance. The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy. I'd take this a step further and fear that not only will it become the norm, even making use…
This already happens.
For example, in the US good credit is often necessary to rent an apartment, open a bank account, get insurance, or even land a job. In order to maintain "good credit", one needs to make sure their financial activity is reported to the bureaus. If you do everything using more-private cash or debit transactions you lose out.