What Will Happen in the 2020s • Hacker News Board

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#61

Post by throwaway5752 » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

neonate wrote: post #45

https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2...

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#62

Post by FreeHugs » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

PaulAJ wrote: post #32

Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).

    1 big data centre is cheaper
    than 1000 little ones

There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. Utilizing them might very well be cheaper then building and maintaining a new datacenter.

    everyone buys and sells through
    Amazon because thats where you
    find the most buyers and sellers

Not everyone. Not even the majority. Even in the USA which is Amazons biggest market, their market share is less then 50%. Individual onlineshops are also moving billions. Even the small ones built with Shopify are moving billions when you combine their revenue. And then there is Ebay, Facebook Marketplace, Alibaba, Rakuten, Zalando ... all moving billions worth of goods.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#63

Post by gfodor » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work:

By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing device (glasses, contacts, perhaps neurological etc) all day which allow software to proxy most aspects of their visual and audio perception, perhaps more.

Among the many results of this change, the most profound will be the loss of physical co-presence as a factor for interacting with other people. People will routinely 'beam in' each other (similar to FaceTime conceptually, but with no visual or auditory perceptual deficiency vs being together in person) in varying contexts for varying purposes.

The technical miracle aside, this will cause a fundamental shift in the way we think about what it means to "be" with other people -- the dependence upon physical co-locality will be no longer something we place highly in our mental model for spending time with others, other than children.

This will affect nearly every industry in terms of economics, some sectors potentially catastrophically like long distance transportation, but the biggest effect will be degree to which we will become able to empathize with others around the world and create novel, deeply impactful forms of interacting with others in a physical and emotional sense.

I suspect, perhaps hope, that the dominating result will be that, in combination with new forms of media based upon these new technological marvels, we will be able to greatly reduce or eliminate the tribalist tendencies we have for one another when those 'others' are out-of-reach for us to talk with, hug, dance with, and learn from.

In 2030, you'll be able to hug anyone on Earth instantly, and that's something to be optimistic about.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#64

Post by anonytrary » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

The climate crisis will be exacerbated by the increasing centralization of large cities. Humans are tending towards centralized population hubs, and away from rural areas.

This will be the main catalyst for adopting greener infrastructure. Fear of permanent climate change will not be the catalyst, as that is a long term repercussion of not solving the pollution problem, and humans have never been good about preparing for things in advance.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#65

Post by chiefalchemist » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

trentnix wrote: post #18

voidfunc wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GenX is tiny and has failed to progress forward precisely because it is so small compared to the Boomers and Millennials. Also by the end of the decade parts of GenX will be approaching 60.

"Failed to progress forward" - what are you talking about? The United States - and really the world as a whole - has enjoyed its most prosperous time in all of human history during Gen-X's window of contribution.

Yes. But that prosperity came with a massive balloon payment in the form of climate change. What's label prosperity today will be "Grand ma, WTF were y'all thinking?"

Long to short, the jury is still out on the actual success of Gen-X.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#66

Post by petulla » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #61

neonate wrote: post #45

https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2...

Time is running out: please help the Internet Archive today. The average donation is $45. If everyone chips in $5, we can keep our website independent, strong and ad-free. That's right, all we need is the price of a paperback book to sustain a non-profit library the whole world depends on. We have only 150 staff but run one of the world’s top websites. We’re dedicated to reader privacy so we never track you. We never…

Thanks for this nudge. I signed up for a recurring donation.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#67

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:54 PM UTC

lettergram wrote: post #13

I kind of doubt most of these. My prediction: 1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. 2. we will have further centralization of the internet 3. Solar will only account for 10k Gw 4. Agree that nuclear will make a massive resurgence 5. Gas will still be the dominate power source for mobile transportation, but less so. Thi…

[deleted]

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#68

Post by ivan_gammel » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:54 PM UTC

chukye wrote: post #31

6 is a big NO. The most part of diseases of this decade are caused by plant based diets. Humans need meat, without it we get sick. B12 can't be found in plants, there are plenty studies that shows how sick we get if we eat ONLY plants.

It is a technical problem, not a law of nature. B12 and other nutrients will be produced by plants, insects or bacteria in sufficient supply by the end of the decade, given the amount of interest vegetarian diets receive. Some investment will come from space companies, which need to shorten the food chain.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#69

Post by dashundchen » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

chacha2 wrote: post #51

chukye wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. They need to supplement B12 and some other nutrients that are not found in plants.

They're not found in meat either. B12 comes from bacteria out of dirt.

In fact industrial animal agriculture frequently has to supplement b12 to animals as they are commonly deficient.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#70

Post by emayljames » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

Agree with all, except the crypto currency bit.

Asia (China) would not have an incentive politically to run with it, as it would remove traceability and control of money flow. Not to mention online currencies pitfalls.