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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#91

Agree with all, except the crypto currency bit. Asia (China) would not have an incentive politically to run with it, as it would remove traceability and control of money flow. Not to mention online currencies pitfalls.

Crypto currencies have failed to be useful as currencies, so I'm not sure why governments would be so eager to try them.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. >6. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution why do people make these kinds of predictions. they're so uninformed it's beyond the pale. china and SA are two of the most authoritarian and simultaneously well-funded (effective and efficient) governments on the planets -- we're no…

> free health-care and tertiary education. Probably because there is no such thing. The people who vote against them realize that you’re still paying for them via taxes and that you’ll be destroying the entire market. Destroying the market with the best healthcare research and the market with much of the best academic research shouldn’t be taken lightly.

in your effort to reiterate a cliche you've completely missed my point. nationalized health care has broad support:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412545-70-...

and yet we can't get organized enough to pass it.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#93

The climate crisis will be exacerbated by the increasing centralization of large cities. Humans are tending towards centralized population hubs, and away from rural areas. This will be the main catalyst for adopting greener infrastructure. Fear of permanent climate change will not be the catalyst, as that is a long term repercussion of not solving the pollution problem, and humans have never been good about preparing…

I thought it was the other way around? Don't people in cities have a lower carbon footprint because of public transportation, smaller homes, and other things that can be shared?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#94
post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

What are your thoughts considering that VR was supposed to be the next big thing in the 90s already (at least from what I remember hearing...) and what are your thoughts regarding human chemistry?

The tech track towards full perceptual override in this current generation of VR is fairly well understood and has been on track, though slightly delayed, for approx 7 years now, with the current Oculus Quest device being the best available, and something many of us in the industry felt was almost a dream possibility a few short years ago. So I'm fairly optimistic that the tech will mature to a point where it is effortless to have fully convincing perceptual software proxying all day in 10 years.

I think the bigger unknown questions are around the impact of this technology. It seems hard to understate how much of a change it will be, particularly if there is a path towards young people being able to use it at a young age.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#96
My predictions:

1. China overtakes the USA GDP by 2029

2. Trump wins reelection

3. The United States has a recession by 2021

4. Inflation becomes an issue in the United States because of high debt, increased military spending as a result of great power competition and huge pension debts/promises coming due with baby boomers retiring. The best investments (other then great startups of course) becomes Gold (because of the proclivity to favor spenders over savors.)

5. The United States will focus on big infrastructure spending.

6. Google develops a competitor to Huawei's Safe City project for the United States and its geopolitical allies, this will be a great benefit to our society

7. Humanity will reach mars

8. Humanity will turn the corner on Carbon pollution

9. San Francisco reaches a breaking point and elects moderates whose focus is building more housing.

10. The United States will join the TPP

11. Chinese culture and media breaks out and becomes popular in a similar way Hollywood and American culture is popular in other places

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#97
post #74
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are indeed people who have medical conditions that make their life dangerous with a plant-based diet. For people without such conditions (the majority of people), science on negative effects of plant-based diet seems to focus on certain deficiencies (such as deficiency of zinc and iron, or omega-3 EPA and DHA fatty acids). These deficiencies can be avoided by consuming specific plant-based sources, such as cert…

Nice discussion folks.. BUT, there is an argument that never makes sense to me "the nature ecosystem could never sustain current amounts of meat consumption", so how can nature sustain amounts of PLANT consumption IF we all change it to plant-based diets? This does not make sense since for 1 piece of meat we need to eat dozen of different plants; plants as food have a huge impact in nature too.

The animals eat a lot more plants for a pound of meat they gain than humans would need if we only ate the plants. We are in the first day of this year and already over 120 million animals have been killed in the US for food. Approximations on amount of animals killed each year for food in the USA vary, but it is in tens of billions. Can you imagine the strain natural ecosystem would need to sustain to support tens of billions of new animals every year? We are already on the edge when feeding those animals with industrial crops.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#98
post #74
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are indeed people who have medical conditions that make their life dangerous with a plant-based diet. For people without such conditions (the majority of people), science on negative effects of plant-based diet seems to focus on certain deficiencies (such as deficiency of zinc and iron, or omega-3 EPA and DHA fatty acids). These deficiencies can be avoided by consuming specific plant-based sources, such as cert…

Nice discussion folks.. BUT, there is an argument that never makes sense to me "the nature ecosystem could never sustain current amounts of meat consumption", so how can nature sustain amounts of PLANT consumption IF we all change it to plant-based diets? This does not make sense since for 1 piece of meat we need to eat dozen of different plants; plants as food have a huge impact in nature too.

Your logic breaks down when you consider the fact that humans will never consume as much plant matter or water as livestock.

In fact, the creation of meat is a wasteful process, requiring up to 25kg of grain and 15,000 litres of water to produce 1kg of steak. [1]

1: http://waterfootprint.org/media/downloads/Report-48-WaterFoo...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#99

I kind of doubt most of these. My prediction: 1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. 2. we will have further centralization of the internet 3. Solar will only account for 10k Gw 4. Agree that nuclear will make a massive resurgence 5. Gas will still be the dominate power source for mobile transportation, but less so. Thi…

I think it’s more likely that the west will collapse than that China will, to be honest. Nobody in the west believes in their institutions any more and the uk and us folded like a house of cards with just the lightest push from Russia in 2015-2016. The economy of the west is still strong for now, but if we continue blindly following this nationalist path we’re going to end up the way we ended after our last dalliance with nationalism, except this time with nuclear weapons.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#100
post #5
post #3

>9/ We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade. And as typical in such pieces, GenX gets forgotten...

Straight from "those who have the most experience" to "those who yell the loudest". Can't say I'm looking forward to it.

I'm not sure if you realize this, but as time passes people get older, and they usually gain experience. Soon, Gen X-ers will be the ones with the optimal experience/dementia ratio.

Also, yelling the loudest is problem the predates human history.

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