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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#161

Post by ken »

PaulAJ wrote: post #32

Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).

I assumed that was covered by #8 ("The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy"), somewhat by #9 ("Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions"), and mostly the second half of #5 ("a killer decentralized consumer app").

Network effects of centralization explain why current big companies prefer to build centralized services -- but the next big idea never comes from existing big companies, anyway.

My 30,000' view of computing history is that big companies, as a rule, don't create big ideas that survive. They pick up small ideas that work and scale them up (Gall's Law). Git and HTTP and Python didn't come from Microsoft or Google or Amazon, but those companies took them once they were already popular and made them scale -- in large part by making them work well in a centralized architecture.

The software that comes next won't win because FAANG like it better for building centralized architectures. It'll win because everybody and their dog will be using it at home. Then companies like FAANG will see that and pick it up and try to centralize it. Then the cycle will repeat.

We've already got a billion tiny data centers -- the powerful computers and smartphones in our houses and pockets. All we need is the right software, and the desire to not have every service delivered free-with-ads-over-the-web from big corporations.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#162

Post by ianai »

The predictions about China are a little confusing. I know they’ve copied lots of foreign tech, but have they demonstrated any ability to source original research and development that had no external links? This read a little like what China would want the 2020s to look like.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#164

Post by doc_gunthrop »

gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

> In 2030, you'll be able to hug anyone on Earth instantly, and that's something to be optimistic about.

This sounds sad and absurd. Hugging someone in person is a much more visceral experience than via AR/VR.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#165

Post by gswdh »

chukye wrote: post #89
warent wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how you reconcile this with the existence of healthy individuals who have eaten nothing but plants for decades. I myself have not eaten meat in about 5 years, and I just had a health check-up with full blood work. My doctor said "whatever you're doing, keep doing. You're healthy and I don't recommend changing a thing."

I bet you live in San Francisco :D /jokes a side; for you to be healthy without eating meat you need to eat a large variation of plants, it's not only one, it's not only one meal by day. It's not easy and have a great impact in nature too, meat have all we need and is simpler. Also, humans that are fed only with meat are able to eat once a week (or less).

You’re a nutcase.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#166

Post by mymythisisthis »

dagss wrote: post #144
gfodor wrote: post #63

I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing d…

The internet is already a huge step up in communication from 20 years ago. Turns out people use that to find ideologically likeminded people meaning tribalist movements everywhere are stronger now than before internet came along. 90's were full of optimism about how tribalism could be overcome that is completely vanished now. From the same technological situation you describe I can only think of how people would use…

The Internet had temperately killed technical clubs like HAM radio, wood working shops etc., as people got into coding and could collaborate remotely. Around 2008 lots of Makerspaces started to open, but not nearly enough, the maker movement has stalled though.

We need to rethink the ways schools operate, from 8am-3pm they can be for kids. After 4pm they can be adult learning hubs, maker spaces, DIY bicycle repair shops etc.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#167

Post by wallace_f »

ianai wrote: post #140
chillacy wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the numbers nuclear is very safe but it does have asymmetric risk and most importantly a bad reputation. Next gen nuclear should be a marketing rebrand in addition to new tech. So Yang is right to focus on thorium.

Wish these billionaires with good intentions would invest in marketing to revamp public nuclear sentiment. There’s clearly the possibility of progress given how effective other political campaigns are.

If most billionaires are optimizing for social image / good will, your idea makes no sense to most of those people.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#169

Post by nradov »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

Our current cellular data infrastructure isn't nearly reliable enough to allow routine use of remote operated vehicles in public roads. What happens when a construction crew accidently cuts the backhaul fiber and takes out a whole group of base stations? And no, that problem won't be solved by 5G networks or satellite service.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#170

Post by [deleted] »

buboard wrote: post #153

What about demographic collapse in the west/china? will it not overshadow a lot of this? Esp coupled with demographic looming catastrophe in africa. Poor countries becoming increasingly unsustainable at a time when the developed ones will be least able to help.

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