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Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

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Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you really trying to say? That black and Hispanics families are disproportionally a higher risk of defaulting but should still get loans they cannot afford? Is that your argument? Loans are not grants nor gifts. You're not doing anyone a favour by giving them a loan they cannot afford to repay. There are other ways to subsidize education rather than distorting the lending market.

You are expected to pay student loans based on future income not based on whether your parents are affluent enough to pay them.

Agreed. So I assume you’d be opposed to a policy that has the effect of requiring parental co-signing and discriminates in part based on the income and affluence of the parents?

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#292
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not saying that only the outcome matters, I’m saying that the government’s financial investment on the student loan program is seeing high positive returns right now, despite the default rate on those loans.

Because you’re calculating that the income levels attained (and income taxes paid) by the specific cohort who attended college are caused by their attendance, rather than merely correlated with it. If they’re caused, the program should take credit for the returns on that investment. If that cohort of people (generally more ambitious, societal/educational rule following, and possibly more intelligent [at least more “b…

I’m not arguing causation, and I’d be happy rephrasing to say that the investment sees returns precisely because higher income taxes are strongly correlated with degrees. What causes attendance is important to the question of whether investment in college is a return from the point of view of the student, but it’s not particularly important from the point of view of the government and whether the student loan program is paying off today. Whether the government is seeing returns is not a causation vs correlation issue, it’s just a fact.

I’m looking at the raw data, not through the lens of a model that discounts absolute income & savings differences to try to answer a hypothetical question about what college is worth to the individual.

In the case of income & taxes, it’s important in this particular case (that of student loans and income taxes) to look at the raw unadjusted income, because that is what the government sees. It doesn’t matter if tuition is cutting into graduates’ savings, because the government gets it’s income taxes before people get a chance to save (or even spend!).

Your second point is hypothetical, since studies trying to control for IQ and parents’ education and all the other factors we can think of are still showing positive economic returns for college graduates. This paper is asking the question, ‘how can we calculate the return on investment in college’ from the point of view of a student, and trying to rule out factors that give you more income without going to college. However, that is not the same thing as asking ‘what would happen if everyone stopped going to college?’.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#293

This is a really interesting addition to the literature if you dig through it, with subtle distinctions between income gains and wealth gains and interactions with demographics. It's not a simple "college ain't what it used to be" story. The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Increasing tuition is a…

> The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Is it? Permit this armchair economist a theory: People with degrees tend to use those degrees in pursuit of career development. Career development causes people to move to "cluster" regions e.g. Silicon Valley, New York "Cluster" regions tend to have a high c…

Why do you specify degree-holding entrepreneurs instead of simply degree-holders? That might hide some survivorship bias.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#294
post #283
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sorry, but what you’re saying here doesn’t make sense. If, after controlling, college premium is zero, it means that if nobody at all went to college, the wages and thus also the tax receipts would be the same. It could be that in that scenario different people would make these wages than now, as the distortionary effect of college wouldn’t then deprive them of it in favor of some graduate from better school, but…

> If, after controlling, college premium is zero, it means that if nobody at all went to college, the wages and thus also the tax receipts would be the same. No, that’s not true, you’re missing a very important point. Taxes come out of income, they aren’t extracted after you control for everything, they are extracted on your income, and the income for 4-year degree holders is 2x the income of non-degree holders on av…

You keep missing what I’m saying. Sure, the degree holders make much more, but the real question is, why they make more.

Do they make more because they learned valuable skills allowing them to do valuable jobs that otherwise wouldn’t be done? Then yes, the government extracts part of the extra productivity they generate that wouldn’t have been generated but for the education.

Or maybe do they make more because the college degree certifies them as quality people, which signals their value as good workers, leading to employers choosing them over other people? In that case, college education doesn’t make the workers any more productive. No extra value is produced because of college education. However, the college educated workers in that world still make more than not educated workers. All college does then is to determine who gets to do the higher income jobs. If nobody went to college in that world, those exact same jobs would be done anyway, it’s just employers would have to use different signals for employee quality than college degree.

I believe that our world is much closer to the latter than to the former. College is mostly quality certification to signal value, and it’s not building human capital through teaching people skills that make them more productive. This is shown by papers like above, where they find that after controlling for other explanatory variables, college premium is zero or close to zero, but also by common sense: a typical college graduate forgets 95% of the material in class, and the remaining 5% is often not likely to be used anyway, since most degrees are not teaching any practical work skills anyway (except for the job of being a college professor), and on top of that a lot of people don’t even work in a job they have a degree for.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#295

I have a degree from a no-name university in New Zealand. I'd do it again for a few pragmatic reasons. 1: Lots of companies will reject you on sight without a degree. I don't think it's a good thing, but it is reality. 2: With a degree your ability to move overseas dramatically improves. I moved to America after graduating. I flat out couldn't have done that without a degree. Points based systems immigration systems…

> • Grad school, in general, seems to be a rip off In usa they are used as a path to immigration. 90% of grad students are foreigners.

> 90% of grad students are foreigners.

Nowhere near that in total over all fields and even in STEM where the percentage is the highest it is about 80%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/education/edlife/american...

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#296

I have a degree from a no-name university in New Zealand. I'd do it again for a few pragmatic reasons. 1: Lots of companies will reject you on sight without a degree. I don't think it's a good thing, but it is reality. 2: With a degree your ability to move overseas dramatically improves. I moved to America after graduating. I flat out couldn't have done that without a degree. Points based systems immigration systems…

For knowledge workers who could have begun a similar career without college, the cost of the degree should also include the money they would have made by working 4 additional years at the end of their career (probably one of the highest points?)

The Opportunity Cost would have been incurred while they were in college, not 30+ years after. There are too many variables in play when projecting that far out in the future, but you can make good estimates as to what would have happened in the past as an alternative to the 4 years spent in college.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very. They may very well take into account your grades and SAT score to determine feasibility of repayment. You act as if the SAT score is a predictive of future success. Do you know how easy it is for parents of means to pay for “sat tutorials” that will help their kids improve their scores significantly? Ask me how I know. They may and why shouldn't they? This will deter expensive colleges and push students to chea…

College Board suggests that going from 0 to “6-8 hours” of prep is good for about 90 points and to 20 hours is good for only an additional 25 points. It would seem folly to take the test with 0 prep and there’s a Khan Academy free prep course that you could use for the 20 hours of prep. Given that, I’m not so sure that intensive prep is going to boost someone’s score significantly beyond basic prep.

Again of course the College Board has every reason to perpetuate the myth that the SAT is about college readiness and not about how much access you have to tutorials.

Do you really think some free online tutorials are as good as $100/hour private tutor who is a college professor that we got for my son or in my case having a mother who was not only a high school Math teacher but also taught SAT tutorials? Do you really think the latter had no bearing on me having to highest SAT score in my school and the second highest in the district with 800 seniors?

I’m not bragging. I didn’t exactly live in a top ranked school system in the small town south.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are expected to pay student loans based on future income not based on whether your parents are affluent enough to pay them.

Agreed. So I assume you’d be opposed to a policy that has the effect of requiring parental co-signing and discriminates in part based on the income and affluence of the parents?

Of course I’m opposed to that.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. So I assume you’d be opposed to a policy that has the effect of requiring parental co-signing and discriminates in part based on the income and affluence of the parents?

Of course I’m opposed to that.

My apologies. I crossed your upthread content with another poster’s.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#300
post #294
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If, after controlling, college premium is zero, it means that if nobody at all went to college, the wages and thus also the tax receipts would be the same. No, that’s not true, you’re missing a very important point. Taxes come out of income, they aren’t extracted after you control for everything, they are extracted on your income, and the income for 4-year degree holders is 2x the income of non-degree holders on av…

You keep missing what I’m saying. Sure, the degree holders make much more, but the real question is, why they make more. Do they make more because they learned valuable skills allowing them to do valuable jobs that otherwise wouldn’t be done? Then yes, the government extracts part of the extra productivity they generate that wouldn’t have been generated but for the education. Or maybe do they make more because the co…

There are two separate “premiums” calculated in the paper. One of them is income, and one of them is wealth (accumulated savings).

Only the wealth premium is going to zero, the income premium is currently still quite high and is stable.

Only the income premium matters to income taxes, the wealth premium that is going to zero does not affect income taxes directly in the short term.

The only premium that the student loan program cares about in the short term is the income premium, and the income premium has not gone down.

The question of why this all happens is indeed interesting and important, however not relevant to what I’ve been talking about here, that student loans are on balance repaid by the college income premium.

In short, the college premium from the point of view of the government’s income is not the same as the college premium to the student. It’s possible for the government to see a favorable financial return on student loans at the same time the student sees negative value in their degree.

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