Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#261

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:06 PM UTC

macspoofing wrote: post #228

scarface74 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How “discerning” could you be when making loans to teenagers with no income and no credit history? The only thing that would happen is that the banks would force all loans to be co-signed. Guess who is statistically unlikely to get loans in that scenario?

>How “discerning” could you be when making loans to teenagers with no income and no credit history? Very. They may very well take into account your grades and SAT score to determine feasibility of repayment. >The only thing that would happen is that the banks would force all loans to be co-signed. They may and why shouldn't they? This will deter expensive colleges and push students to cheaper alternatives like trade…

Very. They may very well take into account your grades and SAT score to determine feasibility of repayment.

You act as if the SAT score is a predictive of future success. Do you know how easy it is for parents of means to pay for “sat tutorials” that will help their kids improve their scores significantly? Ask me how I know.

They may and why shouldn't they? This will deter expensive colleges and push students to cheaper alternatives like trade schools, community colleges and state schools. What's wrong with that?

So only the rich should go to the good schools?

People who can't pay back loans? I don't follow your point. Are you saying that loans should be made without consideration of feasibility of repayment?

Student loans are or should be based on the ability to pay back loans based on future earnings. Most loans are based on credit, prior repayment history and income - three things that students don’t have.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#262

Post by malvosenior » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:07 PM UTC

dahart wrote: post #258

malvosenior wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correlation does not equal causation. There's a very broad spectrum of people who do not have degrees. It's very likely that if you took those same people earning degrees and had them enter the workforce instead, they'd have equal or greater pay.

That isn’t supported by the data we actually have. Please take a look at Figure 3 on page 39.

That data doesn't reference the point I'm making. What I'm saying is that it's very possible that if the same people that got bachelor degrees instead entered the workplace, they'd have equal or greater lifetime earnings.

To put it another way, earnings are correlated with an individual's talent and drive. Currently, many of those people end up getting degrees. It's a correlation, it's not the degrees that are causing the jump in earnings, it's the individual's skills.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#263

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:07 PM UTC

macspoofing wrote: post #241

rayiner wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the policies you propose would have a disproportionate impact on black and Hispanic students, who generally come from families with less means to qualify for credit. Policies that disproportionately channel these students to trade schools and community colleges is a political non-starter.

What are you really trying to say? That black and Hispanics families are disproportionally a higher risk of defaulting but should still get loans they cannot afford? Is that your argument? Loans are not grants nor gifts. You're not doing anyone a favour by giving them a loan they cannot afford to repay. There are other ways to subsidize education rather than distorting the lending market.

You are expected to pay student loans based on future income not based on whether your parents are affluent enough to pay them.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#264

Post by throwaway100773 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:10 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #194

throwaway100773 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that trades don’t scale like all of the things you mention. Even if you own a very successful plumbing company, your ability to scale is constrained by geography, labor costs and finding people you can trust to manage your company. Not to mention, there are market forces working against the plumber trying to scale, and the plumber’s ability to affect policy is proportional to the ability to scale. Anecdo…

> The issue is that trades don’t scale like all of the things you mention. The UK famously has a plumber worth $100 million - Charlie Mullins.

Wow. I didn’t know that. Certainly an exception to my statement.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#265

Post by mattbillenstein » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:13 PM UTC

I made a very simple one spreadsheet model just yesterday after talking about this with a friend:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KpmT8JdF-0CKyRk8_DL7...

Every student should do a cost/benefit analysis of what a degree from a given institution will be worth to them - too many students fall into massive debt they can never pay back.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#266

Post by amiga_500 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:13 PM UTC

mooreds wrote: post #154

amiga_500 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI would just feed directly into rents because that's how prices are set. UBI would require land value tax to ensure the public value is capture for public spending. UBI alone is a land speculator wet dream and Yang is totally wrong to be pushing it without LVT. Yes in the middle of nowhere it can help, but most people are in cities and rents will rise there to current rent + UBI amount.

I always wondered about that. I used to rent in a city with a relatively tight supply of rentals and thought that a UBI would fall right through to the landlords. Any good links to read about the land value tax component?

From your reply you are obviously not stuck at the "rents are the cost to the landlord + 10%". Good!

Have a look at this 10 minute video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gD_dZvPwAj0

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#267

Post by rossdavidh » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:16 PM UTC

dahart wrote: post #258

malvosenior wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correlation does not equal causation. There's a very broad spectrum of people who do not have degrees. It's very likely that if you took those same people earning degrees and had them enter the workforce instead, they'd have equal or greater pay.

That isn’t supported by the data we actually have. Please take a look at Figure 3 on page 39.

That doesn't say anything about which is cause and which is effect, which is what is relevant for an increase in college education to make a more productive workforce.

In fact, the labor productivity growth rate does not seem to have significantly changed at all, even as the percentage which is college educated has gone up a lot: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDYGTH

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#268

Post by vonseel » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:16 PM UTC

kortilla wrote: post #180

vonseel wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suddenly makes you feel very bad for all the people out there making $15-20ish an hour.

Not sure you understand. 1099 income means they aren’t an employee. That’s not the arrangement for people making $15-20. Those folks are regular employees so they receive that income after benefits, payroll taxes, etc. As a 1099 employee you need to be clearing at least double the equivalent employee hourly wage because there is so much overhead. Remember, a contractor doesn’t get a single day of paid vacation.

No, I understand perfectly fine and I’ve been in both situations. I’m just saying, it sucks to be a contractor with overhead and make a decent amount without accounting for the additional expense, but it REALLY sucks to be at the bottom of the income totem pole and make peanuts (in an expensive American city).

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#269

Post by vonseel » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:18 PM UTC

kortilla wrote: post #177

caenorst wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They seems obvious to you now but they weren't at that time. Not that I am a Zuck fan at all but he deserve credit for that and that probably demonstrate some creativity and vision from him. No ?

MySpace existed. Facebook didn’t really add much beyond that to think that others wouldn’t have come up with the same idea in Zuck’s absence. In fact, the lawsuits from the Winklevos twins would seem to imply just that.

I would have said the same thing.

I think the main value add - looking back on how I perceived FB when it came out and why a lot of us started using it - was branding and a cleaner, fresh design. And the newsfeed was a new concept...

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#270

Post by vonseel » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:20 PM UTC

JshWright wrote: post #211

caenorst wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They seems obvious to you now but they weren't at that time. Not that I am a Zuck fan at all but he deserve credit for that and that probably demonstrate some creativity and vision from him. No ?

The point is that even without Facebook, he would have access to a significant amount of wealth.

Because he was a Harvard student from a likely well-off family?