Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#251

Post by dahart » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:33 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #250

dahart wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The student loan system will cost the government $170 billion in losses over 10 years I don’t doubt this, but it’s a statement that focuses only on losses and completely ignores the economic benefits of the educated workforce. $170 billion over ten years is on the order of 1% of education spending. Since graduates and postgraduates are earning, on average, roughly 2x and 3x non-graduates respectively, the extra inc…

Once the job market got better a couple years ago, the percentage of job postings which required a college degree dropped. In other words, the "requirement" was mostly a way of filtering, not something that actually increased productivity. Speaking as a person with two degrees myself, I can say that non-degreed programmers seem to be just as productive as those with degrees. In fact, CS majors in particular have a pr…

Productivity isn’t the metric that determines whether the government recoups student loan defaults, income is. And the income of graduates is still multiples that of non-graduates, as shown by the data in this article.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#252

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:36 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #226

brownbat wrote: post #195

This is a really interesting addition to the literature if you dig through it, with subtle distinctions between income gains and wealth gains and interactions with demographics. It's not a simple "college ain't what it used to be" story. The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Increasing tuition is a…

You have three parties: schools, financial institutions, and teenagers. You have four - parents. Students can’t get a loan without filling out FAFSA which requires their parents involvement. Parents could guide children in the right direction.

[deleted]

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#253

Post by ak217 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:37 PM UTC

macspoofing wrote: post #241

rayiner wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the policies you propose would have a disproportionate impact on black and Hispanic students, who generally come from families with less means to qualify for credit. Policies that disproportionately channel these students to trade schools and community colleges is a political non-starter.

What are you really trying to say? That black and Hispanics families are disproportionally a higher risk of defaulting but should still get loans they cannot afford? Is that your argument? Loans are not grants nor gifts. You're not doing anyone a favour by giving them a loan they cannot afford to repay. There are other ways to subsidize education rather than distorting the lending market.

- The others are trying to tell you, in good faith, why they think such a move would be politically intractable. Grandstanding rhetoric doesn't help your argument.

- Not requiring your parents to be rich is otherwise known as intergenerational upward mobility. If the effect of the current system is to externalize the costs of upward mobility on the rest of the society, then that's probably worth paying (to a point). The bigger problem is that government-issued loans suppress market pressure on colleges to operate efficiently.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#254

Post by xyzzyz » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:46 PM UTC

dahart wrote: post #247

rayiner wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The three parties are schools, teenagers, and the government . More than 90% of existing student loans, and nearly all new loans, are issued by the government. The student loan system will cost the government $170 billion in losses over 10 years, because interest doesn’t cover money written off due to hardships and loan forgiveness. The non-dischargability of student loans protects the government from further losses.…

> The student loan system will cost the government $170 billion in losses over 10 years I don’t doubt this, but it’s a statement that focuses only on losses and completely ignores the economic benefits of the educated workforce. $170 billion over ten years is on the order of 1% of education spending. Since graduates and postgraduates are earning, on average, roughly 2x and 3x non-graduates respectively, the extra inc…

> Since graduates and postgraduates are earning, on average, roughly 2x and 3x non-graduates respectively

The original paper that this whole discussion is happening in the context of literally says that the college premium is very low, and for non whites practically zero. The whole issue is that society-wide, college education doesn’t increase the wages of people. Yes, the college educated people make much more than those without a degree, but the question is how much they’d make on average if those same people didn’t get a degree, and as the paper argues, only a little less if at all.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#255

Post by utopian3 » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:52 PM UTC

shrubble wrote: post #168

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$60 or even $90/hour isn’t that great if its all 1099 income. It isn’t bad either, but the extra payroll taxes and the need to buy an individual plan (if your partner doesn’t get you into a group plan) make it pretty normal.

In this specific case, hospitals do tend to offer good health care plans. Further I don't believe it is possible for a hospital with all its specialized equipment to 1099 its nurses (doesn't pass the IRS '20 questions' test on contracting).

Look up agency nurses [0]. When they're paid hourly being begged for work (as OP mentioned), it's usually for a nurse who has specialized skills that can hop between hospitals/ER/offices. Essentially, they're contractors of the agency, and the hospital pays the agency. Can't recall if they're W2 or 1099 though

[0] https://allnurses.com/what-quot-agency-nursing-quot-t441525/

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#256

Post by malvosenior » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:53 PM UTC

dahart wrote: post #251

rossdavidh wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the job market got better a couple years ago, the percentage of job postings which required a college degree dropped. In other words, the "requirement" was mostly a way of filtering, not something that actually increased productivity. Speaking as a person with two degrees myself, I can say that non-degreed programmers seem to be just as productive as those with degrees. In fact, CS majors in particular have a pr…

Productivity isn’t the metric that determines whether the government recoups student loan defaults, income is. And the income of graduates is still multiples that of non-graduates, as shown by the data in this article.

Correlation does not equal causation. There's a very broad spectrum of people who do not have degrees. It's very likely that if you took those same people earning degrees and had them enter the workforce instead, they'd have equal or greater pay.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#257

Post by avisser » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 3:56 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #235

brownbat wrote: post #195

This is a really interesting addition to the literature if you dig through it, with subtle distinctions between income gains and wealth gains and interactions with demographics. It's not a simple "college ain't what it used to be" story. The biggest puzzle is how to explain why recent grads still command significantly higher incomes than nongrads without accumulating significantly more wealth. Increasing tuition is a…

The three parties are schools, teenagers, and the government . More than 90% of existing student loans, and nearly all new loans, are issued by the government. The student loan system will cost the government $170 billion in losses over 10 years, because interest doesn’t cover money written off due to hardships and loan forgiveness. The non-dischargability of student loans protects the government from further losses.…

> The non-dischargability of student loans protects the government from further losses.

This one feels like a "true in theory, but not practice." Since the change was recent, we don't know how it will turn out, but it seems _very_ likely that some percentage of folks will die with outstanding student loans. If tuition keeps rising, it will be a non-trivial amount of money.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#258

Post by dahart » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:00 PM UTC

malvosenior wrote: post #256

dahart wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Productivity isn’t the metric that determines whether the government recoups student loan defaults, income is. And the income of graduates is still multiples that of non-graduates, as shown by the data in this article.

Correlation does not equal causation. There's a very broad spectrum of people who do not have degrees. It's very likely that if you took those same people earning degrees and had them enter the workforce instead, they'd have equal or greater pay.

That isn’t supported by the data we actually have. Please take a look at Figure 3 on page 39.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#259

Post by vharuck » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:04 PM UTC

dustinmoris wrote: post #221

vharuck wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> University is the concept of someone teaching you a topic and then you being able to claim you are qualified in this topic. University is supposed to be learning from the experience of experts. Having a person with experience on hand cuts down the time needed to learn things. Online articles and tutorials aren't a dialogue. Online forums are good, but often can't promise somebody will care about your education. Uni…

I respectfully disagree with all your points. Unless you are privileged enough to attend an ivy league university you will not be taught by experts of a field. The majority of university teachers across the world are average people of average skill who often failed to achieve success in the open market and then defaulted back into a comfy uni job. Also there’s no evidence for your claim that 4 years university get yo…

I've taken classes at two small private colleges and a community college in the US (total of seven years, mostly part-time, for an undergraduate). None were on the usual elite list. But you're right that I don't know much about universities in other countries.

>Unless you are privileged enough to attend an ivy league university you will not be taught by experts of a field. The majority of university teachers across the world are average people of average skill

Average skill of an expert in the field is good enough. Not an "expert among experts," but an expert nonetheless. And most people will end up as experts of average skill, so that's fine. I majored in math, and all my professors knew more about the subject, knew how it was used, and had their own research going on. Again, not an elite college, so they weren't big projects, but these people weren't just failures who found a cushy job. As a student, "more skilled than me" is all I needed. Anything they knew beyond what I should learn in college wasn't useful to me. It only mattered they knew how to teach it to me.

>Also there’s no evidence for your claim that 4 years university get you better skilled than 4 years of self disciplined learning and work experience.

Alright, you got me there. Do you have links to non-anecdotal and contrary evidence? Otherwise, I'm going study-hunting.

Re: Is College Still Worth It? The New Calculus of Falling Returns [pdf]

#260

Post by dahart » Sat, Dec 28, 2019, 4:05 PM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #254

dahart wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The student loan system will cost the government $170 billion in losses over 10 years I don’t doubt this, but it’s a statement that focuses only on losses and completely ignores the economic benefits of the educated workforce. $170 billion over ten years is on the order of 1% of education spending. Since graduates and postgraduates are earning, on average, roughly 2x and 3x non-graduates respectively, the extra inc…

> Since graduates and postgraduates are earning, on average, roughly 2x and 3x non-graduates respectively The original paper that this whole discussion is happening in the context of literally says that the college premium is very low, and for non whites practically zero. The whole issue is that society-wide, college education doesn’t increase the wages of people. Yes, the college educated people make much more than…

No, income taxes are extracted before the premium is calculated. I’m not talking about the wealth premium that a degree gives you, I’m talking about the income taxes that the government extracts from people who have degrees, which is completely unaffected by the recent downward trend in the wealth premium that this paper is calculating. This is a case where the absolute, uncontrolled data is very important to differentiate from the adjusted, controlled data.