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If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

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41–50 of 184 posts

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#41

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

MZM velocity of money of USD is 1.3

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Bitcoin is (at least theoretically) a currency. You're comparing it to a commodity or store of value. The power of a currency is the ability to trade it for goods and services. If that is no longer happening with Bitcoin it has morphed into something else entirely.

> Because Bitcoin is (at least theoretically) a currency. Bitcoin is many things, but pinning it as a currency is very reductionist. It can be used as a currency, but in its current form, it isn't very practical (lighting is aiming to, and will likely succeed in fixing that). It is IMOH very much more useful for all the other use cases (eg store of value, doing away with government brain-hared management of fiat curr…

If they didn't want to be a currency they likely should have not used terms like Wallet and have their landing page say "Bitcoin is an innovative payment network and a new kind of money."

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#43
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never owned or traded bitcoin, but as I understand it the main attraction is that it's like the gold standard (of course for people who don't understand why the gold standard was a bad idea).

It's nothing like the gold standard. What made the gold standard a bad idea does not apply to Bitcoin.

You mean that there is a cap on the supply that cannot keep pace with the growth of the real economy?

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#44
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's one of the standard metrics to judge any currency. Bitcoin is not advertised as an asset but as a digital currency. But it has clearly become primarily an asset, given the minimal uses of it as a currency.

Once transaction fees exceeded $20 back in 2017, it was pretty clear Bitcoin was an asset not a currency. Horrible properties for a currency. Usual properties for a collectible asset.

I'd argue that IRS tax treatment of Bitcoin as an asset (and thus making every currency-like purchase - even when exchanging for good or services - a taxable event) is another significant factor.

Fees may have made this inevitable, but having to deal with taxes has definitely made me much more wary of using it for small purchases. Bitcoin tax accounting is tedious, and I think once a company solves non-custodial record keeping for the purposes of automated tax accounting, it will increase velocity of spending.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#45
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it actually gold that's being traded, or papers/promises/options/whatever-else-but-physical-gold saying 'x amount of gold' is actually traded?

Well, physical Bitcoins aren't being traded either. Because there aren't physical Bitcoins.

Actual custody is being traded though.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#46

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

I have a hard time believe its anything other than market makers providing the illusion of trades. Have you seen the price swings? If there was real volume and real transactions asides from trades, how would such insane swings be possible?

I don't have a crystal ball to claim I know what happens but swings are often due to futures trades and exchanges interested in liquidating longs and shorts.

I understand why exchanges are interested in wash trading but I don't know why market makers would provide any illusion since each transaction costs in order of 0.075% of its value.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#47
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Bitcoin is (at least theoretically) a currency. You're comparing it to a commodity or store of value. The power of a currency is the ability to trade it for goods and services. If that is no longer happening with Bitcoin it has morphed into something else entirely.

I've never owned or traded bitcoin, but as I understand it the main attraction is that it's like the gold standard (of course for people who don't understand why the gold standard was a bad idea).

Gold standard is great for individuals who want to store wealth, but a bad idea for a fiat currency with policy goals like increasing spending, investment and economic velocity. Deflationary currencies are good stores of value, but slow the economy (because why invest/buy now if your money gets more powerful the longer you refrain from spending it).

I think Bitcoin is similar to the gold standard, and its popularity lies in the mismatch of goals between government desires for fiat issuance and individuals for storing value.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#48

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

There's no such thing as a "market cap" for Bitcoin - seriously, give me a definition of "market cap" for Bitcoin that makes any sense at all compared to something like the future value of cash flows from UNH equity.

Not my definition but the accepted one is price times number of bitcoins mined so far. Of course by selling 1% of all bitcoins you would clean all order books. However, George Soros used only a few billions to bet against the British pound.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#49
post #40

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

Bitcoin is not a stock though. Forex markets do $5 trillion in daily volume against an $80 trillion base. For example.

Forex market are highly leveraged so it is better to compare them to Bitcoin Futures then. Bitcoin Futures have about $7 bil of volume today for $133 bil market cap (so the factor is similar). Obviously, trillions and billions are not on the same scale and I have no clue whether the factor should remain the same.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#50
post #41

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

MZM velocity of money of USD is 1.3

Today, Bitcoin has little to no adoption as a currency, that is true.
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