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Views from an Egyptian

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Re: Views from an Egyptian

#71

Post by sliverstorm »

jacquesm wrote: post #3
csomar wrote: post #2

I don't agree. It's not the whole population that will make the true revolution. They'll help, but are not the main stream of the revolution. Read my comment here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2151468 Western Media has made false rumors that this is the Facebook revolution of young people. Yeah, Facebook played a major role, but wasn't the key. There is torture in these countries. To break police torture, you…

> To break police torture, you MUST torture them. I hope you meant that in a figurative sense and not in a literal one, if you meant that literally then I'm sorry, but that's absolutely not the case. You break a bad regime by doing better, not by becoming like them. I sincerely hope that El Baradei will get his way and will be allowed to lead a transition government he seems like a decent fellow and has done a lot of…

Gandhi: "Nonviolence is a weapon of the strong"

I sure don't blame the Egyptian people if they aren't feeling very strong right about now.

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#72

Post by jbooth »

jacquesm wrote: post #55
michaelchisari wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Iranian left also had no blueprint for moving forward. They were able to destabilize and oust the Shah, but they didn't know how to fill the power vacuum. The mosques did. They were not a marginalized fringe political wing, they were a cultural and religious force that quickly leveraged their position to move into the political sphere. Thirty years later, the situation in Egypt is different. The secular centrists…

> their ability to seize control and establish a theocratic dictatorship is minuscule, at best. Ok, that's a good thing then. Is Iran financing them? Or do they have local support? What are the relative proportions supporting these factions in the population?

I'd speculate that Iran isn't financing them, because I've never heard an allegation, they're Sunni, and they don't have a record of blowing up Israelis or Americans.

Not sure on the popularity thing. I'd say plurality support, off the cuff, based on recent history, but a big portion of that support is "anyone but Mubarak" moreso than "sharia law rules". All gut feelings on my part though.

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#73

Post by jacquesm »

jbooth wrote: post #72
jacquesm wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> their ability to seize control and establish a theocratic dictatorship is minuscule, at best. Ok, that's a good thing then. Is Iran financing them? Or do they have local support? What are the relative proportions supporting these factions in the population?

I'd speculate that Iran isn't financing them, because I've never heard an allegation, they're Sunni, and they don't have a record of blowing up Israelis or Americans. Not sure on the popularity thing. I'd say plurality support, off the cuff, based on recent history, but a big portion of that support is "anyone but Mubarak" moreso than "sharia law rules". All gut feelings on my part though.

Ok, thanks.

I've been researching them a bit further and it definitely seems they would command a majority of the votes at the moment so I really have no idea why people are so quick to write them off.

Agreed on the 'anyone but Mubarak', if this thing does not blow over Mubarak will be a very lucky man if he manages to even reside in Egypt, if he is forced out and does not flee abroad in time he's as good as dead.

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#74

Post by [deleted] »

jacquesm wrote: post #73
jbooth wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd speculate that Iran isn't financing them, because I've never heard an allegation, they're Sunni, and they don't have a record of blowing up Israelis or Americans. Not sure on the popularity thing. I'd say plurality support, off the cuff, based on recent history, but a big portion of that support is "anyone but Mubarak" moreso than "sharia law rules". All gut feelings on my part though.

Ok, thanks. I've been researching them a bit further and it definitely seems they would command a majority of the votes at the moment so I really have no idea why people are so quick to write them off. Agreed on the 'anyone but Mubarak', if this thing does not blow over Mubarak will be a very lucky man if he manages to even reside in Egypt, if he is forced out and does not flee abroad in time he's as good as dead.

[deleted]

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#75

Post by hugh3 »

baguasquirrel wrote: post #69
yummyfajitas wrote: post #33

This is where I become ashamed of my government: "“Mubarak has been an ally of ours in a number of things. And he’s been very responsible on, relative to geopolitical interest in the region, the Middle East peace efforts; the actions Egypt has taken relative to normalizing relationship with – with Israel. … I would not refer to him as a dictator.” - Joe Biden http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0127/Joe-…

FWIW, we were in opposition to Libya and Cuba for how long, and it didn't get us anywhere. We need a real poli-sci explanation for why certain leaders are sticky, and why certain regions seem to have more than their fair share of despots.

We need a real poli-sci explanation for why certain leaders are sticky

Some people are just better at being despots than others, just as some people are better at being actors, CEOs, basketball players or programmers.

Give me unquestioned power over some tin-pot little country and I'd probably be chased out of my palace within two weeks. But a really good (in the sense of efficacy, not morality) despot knows just how to crush dissent among the masses using just the right amount of force while keeping all his generals (and anyone else with the power to depose him directly) dependent on a drip-feed of favours and constantly afraid of a knife in the back. It's a delicate balancing act, I'm sure, and some folks are just really good at it.

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#76

Post by hugh3 »

cema wrote: post #14
yardie wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must also realize that while Gandhi did not use direct violence he did use the threat of violence as a bargaining tool. The British realized the choice was to either work with him or end up confronting more radical fringe groups that weren't opposed to terrorism. The antithesis to this was the battle of Algeria. The french ratcheted up the level of suppression to protests to such a degree that they won the battle…

Gandhi was dealing with the British, who were relatively benevolent at the time. Egyptians (and other Arab peoples) are dealing with local despots, who are desperate.

Precisely. Nonviolence as a strategy only works when you're dealing with someone who has ethical qualms about, y'know, just killing you.

It has worked maybe two or three times in history.

Re: Views from an Egyptian

#77

Post by three14 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #70
iujyhgftrgh wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Dear Egyptian Police and Military. The US government gives Egypt $1.5 Billion every year. That's what is paying your salary. If you want to get paid, just get out of the way. And replace him with who ? We had a nice pet leader in Iran once, he used to buy weapons and nuclear reactors from us. He did torture people and his secret police weren't terribly nice. Then he got overthrown and for some reason the people that…

And replace him with who ? That's really up to the Egyptian people, no?

Come on. Even in the U.S., the people get to pick between a couple of none-too-attractive choices. It wouldn't be shocking for 51% of Egyptians to pick a theocracy given a bunch of poor choices, but that doesn't mean that's what most people want.
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