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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#201

Post by kleton »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196
Animats wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

In non-coastal America, most of the pickup trucks you see on the road are empty.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#202

Post by 0xffff2 »

Cshelton wrote: post #162
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

>The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countries like China (already happening), India (already happening), and others. Autonomous ride networks, especially in dense urban areas, will also take a massive market share. The need for individuals to own vehicles will decrease in urban and even suburban environments. Couple that with almost any good or service you need being delivered to your door "instantly", the vehicle is no longer needed. The rise of remote working will also contribute to this. Yes, some people like their SUVs/Trucks, but that will pail in comparison to the reduction elsewhere.

You give no reason at all why you think any of this is true.

>Towards the end of the decade, we will also have short length, all electric aircraft operating.

This is quite optimistic. Realistically, this market is yet to be proven viable at all, and even if it is it's likely to be much more than a single decade (assuming you didn't actually mean the "end of the decade" coming two months from now) to reach beyond the prototype stage.

>Natural Gas growth long term... no way. Not happening. Within this decade, we will see the price of solar and batteries drop to levels never before imagined.

Again, why? All of this is pie-in-the-sky optimism without any attempt at justifying it.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#203

Post by nickserv »

alan wrote: post #191
mxschumacher wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels. Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either. Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

I never figured out why the cobalt has to come from the Congo. There are cobalt mines in North America that are sitting idle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt,_Ontario

It's cheaper when you don't need to follow labor and environmental regulations.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#204

Post by asteli »

Animats wrote: post #185
ben010783 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series! American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. [1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Plus, no propshaft or exhaust to get hung up on things, and you can get the CoG lower, improving handling. Plus, a level of traction control that simply isn't possible with ICE. I'm excited.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#206

Post by clomond »

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #198
Cshelton wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely disagree. While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time". - The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countri…

Most of your reasoning hinges on spread of electric cars and electric planes. If that doesn't come to pass, oil will still be in huge demand. EVs have been in existance for almost a decade and now and they're still only 1% of US car sales: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-electric-veh... If you extrapolate their upward line forward, it'll take an extremely long time before % of EVs becomes greater than…

Discussion around if something that is in the works "may not happen" and therefore negates a particular thesis is wishful thinking. It is a real risk which should be considered, particularly if one's livelihood is dependent on the continued market dynamics of Oil & Gas.

Re: Your point on electric car adoption.

Your notion of linear adoption is not backed by history. Any kind of breakthrough technology follows adoption in the form of an 'S-Curve'. Example: http://www.foresightguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Scu...

In addition to that: everyone is so focused on % of the installed fleet being electric. The key metric that is more important is "what % of passenger car kilometers driven are electric". A relatively small electric car fleet run by a ridesharing service, driving around 80% of the time can displace lots of ICE passenger car miles.

When you factor in that fleets use TCO for purchases rather than purchase price / monthly payments (like most consumers do) electric vehicles become economical sooner due to the economics of operating electric vehicles.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#207

Post by hinkley »

olivermarks wrote: post #173

It's hard to know what to believe anymore. There were endless articles about 'peak oil' a few years ago.

We had articles about this in the 80's too.

What happened then? Better mapping tools to identify oil-bearing structures, and better catalysts to crack oil. Those catalysts have been worked on since then and they're many times bigger now (I can't recall why this matters).

At some point we developed horizontal drilling. All these things were too expensive when oil was cheaper. What other processes are waiting in the wings?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#208

Post by ben7799 »

kleton wrote: post #201
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

In non-coastal America, most of the pickup trucks you see on the road are empty.

That's true in coastal America too from what I can tell.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#209

Post by asteli »

Ancalagon wrote: post #187

I feel like there is literally no way for the average person to win this fight. I can't even avoid plastic and oil use in my day-to-day life because I live too far from the only farmers market in town, because its too expensive to live any closer. The only way I can see that I could "win" is by buying a large plot of land and essentially returning to living an 1800s style agricultural lifestyle, but even that would p…

The people who make money in industries that pollute would love for you to keep buying into the myth of personal responsibility. We saw this with cigarette and drink companies with the "Keep America Beautiful" campaign, a wildly successful PR move that shifted the blame for litter 100% to the consumer.

"Vote with your wallet" is valid, but it also takes the heat off of our elected representatives and regulators. We need to hold them to account for their failure to force companies to factor destructive externalities into their accounting. Vote with your vote, to hit companies in their wallets.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#210

Post by appleiigs »

aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA wrote: post #194
mxschumacher wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure the distinction matters, because all industry eventually serves consumers.

The distinction is crucial with respect to regulating pollution standards.

Regulation isn't the answer.

First, politics will never allow it. Look at the political environment in US, Great Britain...

Then when regulation is put in place, it isn't effective. Loop holes, grand-fathering, unintended consequences, incompetent gov't agencies.

And then even if one country goes green, it won't help if the rest of the world is spewing air pollution and dumping plastic into the oceans.

The probability of all this getting aligned to make regulation effective is zero.

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