how reliable are these projections? Replace VW with TSLA and the Tesla naysayers / TSLAQ will claim the company is doomed...
VW is much larger than Tesla, has more money and already way over 100+ facilities around the globe. Tesla has 3
VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
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Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will la…
On the other hand if the base models are cheaper to produce means that they can bring more premium features to a broader market.
But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#33This is good news, but VW is ultimately motivated by the threat of Dieselgate litigation and fines. Let's hope this isn't some flash in the pan, Tesla has shown the feasibility, but an EV future really needs one of the big conglomerates onboard as well. Multiple companies competing will drive batteries well under ICE drivetrains economically in short order.
I don't know how much Dieselgate has affected VW's bottom line but what I do know is that as a consequence of the scandal: - new cars now come with 6 years warranty which is more than anything anywhere in that price range - their second hand car program is great, includes 2 years of manufacturer warranty. Last time I wanted to buy a compact I very seriously considered getting a 2015 VW Golf diesel, it includes all fu…
> - new cars now come with 6 years warranty which is more than anything anywhere in that price range
As someone who took advantage of this deal, this no longer applies starting in 2020.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/08/01/volkswa...
Also it's fairly well known that 2019 GTIs (a pretty popular car) has a serious defect that has already started the process to begin a formal recall. It's believed that VW modified the car to meet emissions standards, and essentially broke the car in the process so badly they can't fix it. Most dealerships just buy back the car if you mention the problem.
https://www.golfmk7.com/forums/showpost.php?p=835026&postcou...
So I feel like VW is still doing some shady shit regarding dieselgate.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster. The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will la…
On the other hand if the base models are cheaper to produce means that they can bring more premium features to a broader market. But even that strategy will only last for so long. Whenever autonomous fleets take over they'll sell even fewer vehicles per person.
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Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#35I'm planning to buy a new car in two years, and I'm really excited about the possibilities of electric cars then. What I really want is a mid-sized hatchback, with interior form similar to my current Subaru Forester (and a zillion other similar light-duty quasi-SUVs). It's such a popular form factor, and Tesla isn't there on it.
The unfortunately truth is many of the Electric Vehicles centered sites in US are Tesla fan sites more or less.
If EVs have to truly succeed they have to be coming from more than one brand.
- Mitsubishi Outland PHEV - Hyundai Ionic series - Chevy BoltEV
Lincoln Aviator PHEV, Prosche Cayenne Hybrid covering luxury SUV segment.
There are tons of EVs and PHEVs out there which pretty much cover a large swath of vehicle size already.
The problem is these sites that are supposed to promote Electric Drive train jerk-off weeks on Tesla rumors and Elons tweets.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#36Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Tesla builds ~400,000 per year out of a single factory. If VW were producing 3.2 million/year by the end of 2022 that would seem like a lot to me. Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well. Even going from where they are to 2 million pe…
The Zwickau factory I mentioned a couple of times produces 297k ICE cars a year (1350 a day, 220 days a year), and aims for 330k EV cars in 2022 (1500 a day, 220 days a year).
Source: https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Elektroautos-Im-VW-W...
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#37I'm planning to buy a new car in two years, and I'm really excited about the possibilities of electric cars then. What I really want is a mid-sized hatchback, with interior form similar to my current Subaru Forester (and a zillion other similar light-duty quasi-SUVs). It's such a popular form factor, and Tesla isn't there on it.
>light-duty quasi-SUVs
is that not exactly the niche that the Model X is trying to serve?
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#38I'm planning to buy a new car in two years, and I'm really excited about the possibilities of electric cars then. What I really want is a mid-sized hatchback, with interior form similar to my current Subaru Forester (and a zillion other similar light-duty quasi-SUVs). It's such a popular form factor, and Tesla isn't there on it.
Is that the form factor the model Y is supposed to fill?
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#39I'm planning to buy a new car in two years, and I'm really excited about the possibilities of electric cars then. What I really want is a mid-sized hatchback, with interior form similar to my current Subaru Forester (and a zillion other similar light-duty quasi-SUVs). It's such a popular form factor, and Tesla isn't there on it.
The unfortunately truth is many of the Electric Vehicles centered sites in US are Tesla fan sites more or less. If EVs have to truly succeed they have to be coming from more than one brand. - Mitsubishi Outland PHEV - Hyundai Ionic series - Chevy BoltEV Lincoln Aviator PHEV, Prosche Cayenne Hybrid covering luxury SUV segment. There are tons of EVs and PHEVs out there which pretty much cover a large swath of vehicle s…
Hybrids are ‘meh’ to me. A ton of EV advantages are dismissed or tossed out the window once you mix in a gas engine.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#40Infiniti goes all electric starting 2021-2022. I bet pretty much all of these car manufacturers are doing more or less the same shift.