VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
bloomberg.com
VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
1–10 of 193 posts
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#2Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#3This is good news, but VW is ultimately motivated by the threat of Dieselgate litigation and fines.
Let's hope this isn't some flash in the pan, Tesla has shown the feasibility, but an EV future really needs one of the big conglomerates onboard as well.
Multiple companies competing will drive batteries well under ICE drivetrains economically in short order.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#4Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
It's at least a long-term economic commitment, not just prototypes or compliance cars. Those factory lines need production to offset the investment.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#5Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years.
There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#6Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
I think that’s actually quite a lot. Car factories are expensive and take a long time to build and optimize.
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#7Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Some of them are factories they remodel from ICE to EV, so those decrease the delta by 2. For example the Zwickau site that starts EV mass production on Nov 4 (but ramps up on EV and down on ICE over the next ~2 years until it's fully EV).
Apparently the same is true for 2 US factories, so that's 3 EV factories and -3 ICE factories.
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#8Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
According to [1] the entire VW group owns 61 plants worldwide. However this also includes motorcycle factories and plants which make various parts which are used by ICE and electric cars (i.e. metal casting, injection molding, gearboxes, etc.).
8 Factories are quite a lot when you think that VW has only 3 electric vehicles in the pipeline (id.3,id.crozz and id.buzz) and also does not own any battery manufacturing plant.
It's a very risky move for VW. Margins on ICEs are way higher and VW factory staff is way pricier than tesla's. They can't really burn cash the same way since going belly up would be way more devastating. That's why other big manufacturers like toyota are similarly cautious.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_facto...
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#9Shifting to hybrid or full EVs was laudable five or ten years ago, increasingly less so since then. Neither producers nor consumers in the auto market care about LCA's that look at REMs and battery impact. Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid.
The only solution to the climate catastrophe was a massive change in the economy, supply chain, and western consumer culture. Hybrid car technology was a viable wedge or mitigating factor five or ten years ago. Now our only option is to adapt
Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback
#10Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?
Tesla has 2, so that's 4x in just three years. There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
> There is no reason for VW to not build more, if the demand is there. If the demand is not there, then it can become a financial disaster.
The problem is that EVs are going to cannibalize the legacy auto industry. It takes far less people [1], far less parts (typical combustion engine has ~2k moving parts, a Tesla powertrain has ~17), just a much smaller supply chain overall [2] to deliver EVs. And these EVs will last much, much longer than your traditional combustion vehicles.
Legacy automakers are fighting over the smaller pie that will be left over, hence the handwringing. Innovator's Dilemma [3]. Governments should be looking at the auto industry the same way they look at coal: upskill those who will stay, transition out those who a redundant. It's quite worse than coal, actually. Coal only employs ~50k people in the US. The auto industry employs over 7 million.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/gm-strike-highlights-how-shi...