VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback • Hacker News Board

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#21

Post by windsurfer » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:22 PM UTC

d1zzy wrote: post #17

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #3

This is good news, but VW is ultimately motivated by the threat of Dieselgate litigation and fines. Let's hope this isn't some flash in the pan, Tesla has shown the feasibility, but an EV future really needs one of the big conglomerates onboard as well. Multiple companies competing will drive batteries well under ICE drivetrains economically in short order.

I don't know how much Dieselgate has affected VW's bottom line but what I do know is that as a consequence of the scandal: - new cars now come with 6 years warranty which is more than anything anywhere in that price range - their second hand car program is great, includes 2 years of manufacturer warranty. Last time I wanted to buy a compact I very seriously considered getting a 2015 VW Golf diesel, it includes all fu…

When your sales revenue is $260 billion, something costing $30 billion is a significant chunk.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#22

Post by raaaaraaaa12 » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:22 PM UTC

VW is betting hard on EV cars - I guess that German goverment will cooperate and will invest heavily into EV infrastructure ...otherwise it will be huge failure.

VW will finally solve problem with other brands within VW group - Skoda and Seat are sucessful brands and often cannibalize VW models (Skoda Kodiaq vs VW Tiguan, VW Passat vs. Skoda Superb etc...). VW presented recently strategy for next few years where they said that Skoda will become 'low-cost' brand and Seat will be more 'luxurious'.

Skoda is allowed to have only 2 EV models in next few years - minicar Citigo and Octavia (midsize sedan/combi), nothing else will be allowed (except few hybrid models) so it will be easier for VW brand to become EV leader in EU in next few years.

Also in the case there will be crisis VW will throw it's cheaper brands 'under the train' in order to survive :/

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#23

Post by _ea1k » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:25 PM UTC

CameronNemo wrote: post #2

Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?

Tesla builds ~400,000 per year out of a single factory. If VW were producing 3.2 million/year by the end of 2022 that would seem like a lot to me.

Of course, if/when Tesla ever builds a European plant it may be much smaller than their current footprint. That isn't uncommon for Europe, so if I had to hazard a guess, the VW plants will average less than 400k/plant as well.

Even going from where they are to 2 million per year over the next few years would be a great accomplishment, though. And that certainly seems feasible, if not necessarily likely. ICE companies have an even worse track record than Tesla at keeping promises on electric vehicle schedules.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#24

Post by l1k » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:25 PM UTC

pgeorgi wrote: post #7

CameronNemo wrote: post #2

Is it just me or does that seem low? How many ICE factories do they have currently? How many are they adding or renovating in these next couple years?

Some of them are factories they remodel from ICE to EV, so those decrease the delta by 2. For example the Zwickau site that starts EV mass production on Nov 4 (but ramps up on EV and down on ICE over the next ~2 years until it's fully EV). Apparently the same is true for 2 US factories, so that's 3 EV factories and -3 ICE factories. https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...

Zuffenhausen is now also a mixed ICE/EV factory and EV production has already started there last month. (Porsche is no longer an independent company but merely a VW brand.)

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#25

Post by krn » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:28 PM UTC

VW's electrification efforts are primarily not about competing with Tesla in the US, but about not losing its 24% market share in Europe, where it has multiple non-premium brands, such as Seat and Škoda.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#26

Post by beat » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:30 PM UTC

I'm planning to buy a new car in two years, and I'm really excited about the possibilities of electric cars then. What I really want is a mid-sized hatchback, with interior form similar to my current Subaru Forester (and a zillion other similar light-duty quasi-SUVs). It's such a popular form factor, and Tesla isn't there on it.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#27

Post by raaaaraaaa12 » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:34 PM UTC

krn wrote: post #25

VW's electrification efforts are primarily not about competing with Tesla in the US, but about not losing its 24% market share in Europe, where it has multiple non-premium brands, such as Seat and Škoda.

and they really need to have low average emissions... that's clearly defined goal which needs to be fulfilled.

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#28

Post by 0xcase » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:37 PM UTC

organsnyder wrote: post #13

pgeorgi wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Plus you're only as clean as your electric grid. "The Zwickau plant is supplied with electricity by Volkswagen Kraftwerks GmbH. For a few years now, this company has been offering pure green electricity sourced from hydroelectric power plants, wind farms, and solar parks. This green electricity is TÜV-certified. Even though it costs a little more, Volkswagen Sachsen (with the Zwickau, Dresden, and Chemnitz sites) h…

That doesn't account for the energy used to charge the cars during their lifetime, though. Thankfully, in general the United States energy grid is getting less CO2-intensive.

yes, this is a huge concern. If these cars are powered by coal or other dirty energies it doesn't make sense. Most charger networks here are powered 100% by renewables though

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#29

Post by beambot » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:37 PM UTC

meritt wrote: post #19

calvinbhai wrote: post #14

how reliable are these projections? Replace VW with TSLA and the Tesla naysayers / TSLAQ will claim the company is doomed...

You're curious whether or not it's realistic for an 82-year-old automotive company with 122 worldwide production plants who produced 11.1M cars last year compared to Tesla's 254k can have just 8 facilities producing electric cars in ~2 years from now? That seems like a fairly reasonable goal to me.

Inertia is a pain in the ass. VW has a lot of inertia...

Re: VW’s $50B Bet on an Electric Hatchback

#30

Post by raaaaraaaa12 » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 6:38 PM UTC

meritt wrote: post #19

calvinbhai wrote: post #14

how reliable are these projections? Replace VW with TSLA and the Tesla naysayers / TSLAQ will claim the company is doomed...

You're curious whether or not it's realistic for an 82-year-old automotive company with 122 worldwide production plants who produced 11.1M cars last year compared to Tesla's 254k can have just 8 facilities producing electric cars in ~2 years from now? That seems like a fairly reasonable goal to me.

- hard constraint for VW could be to ensure there will be enough batteries from their suppliers

- lacking infrastructure in cities