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U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#191

Post by cat199 »

newfriend wrote: post #133
knowledge102 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The threat from China has been existent and ignored for the past 30 years, the same 30 years that China rose from 3rd world country to the superpower it is today. The change in attitude began with Trump. He was to first president to bring the threat of China to the mainstream political discourse. Since then, China is so objectively a threat to the U.S. economically, militarily and through their direct actions of mani…

Great comment. It has absolutely been a problem for decades, and most likely a well-known one. I was recently watching a collection of old jokes from Saturday Night Live from the 90s, and came upon this from Weekend Update in 1996: > Following the surprise withdrawal of his nominee Anthony Lake, President Clinton has chosen acting CIA director George Tenant to head up the agency. Now all he needs is the approval of t…

probably a reference to this whole thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_campaign_fi...

some posit that this (may have) helped elect the clintons who in turn moved for the WTO/trade liberalization.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#192

Post by bavell »

deogeo wrote: post #183
pesmhey wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obama was manufacturing the pivot to Asia. The TTP would have given a lot of power to corporations to combat China. This presents its own set of problems though. Clinton was adamant that her grandchildren would not be speaking Chinese. China has been acknowledged as a threat since 2008 really, by everyone really, just, sometimes people need a very visual and visceral demonstration of action (no matter how less-optima…

> The TTP would have given a lot of power to corporations to combat China. It would have given a lot of power to corporations, period. The same corporations that lobbied for so many anti-consumer and anti-democracy provisions, that both Trump and Sanders agreed it was awful, and ultimately caused the TPP to fail. As for Clinton and the democrats - I wouldn't count on them to oppose China. Even after it was revealed B…

TPP was awful just on it's copyright content alone, nevermind the other purported garbage in there. Here's [0] the EFF on TPP copyright.

[0] https://www.eff.org/issues/tpps-copyright-trap

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#193

Post by AlexCoventry »

gaukes wrote: post #163
rjzzleep wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the US can anymore. What Trump did was idiotic. There was a lot of power that world thought the US has, but doesn't seem to have. By issuing all these threats and not being able to follow through with them Trump essentially showed the world that the US isn't as omnipotent as everyone thought it would be. Subsequently Asias reaction to absolutely do not do any business with Huawei as the US ambassador as…

Although it seems like a lot, the US reaction was maybe a 2/10 before trump and dialed up to a 4/10 after trump. There’s MUCH more the US can do if they really wanted to. Consider: 1. China is an export-driven economy. 2. The majority of trade flows through ocean trade routes. 3. The US navy patrols and controls the majority of water routes around the world. But, extreme escalation on either side could push this beyo…

> no party wants that.

Trump would benefit enormously from a shooting war.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#194

Post by isoskeles »

dragontamer wrote: post #172
Consultant32452 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's too early to tell. Wars of any kind, including trade wars, are a short term cost hoping for a long term gain. If the Chinese economy is hurt more than the American economy that is one level of success. Then, if manufacturing moves back to the US and other Western hemisphere nations that's another level of success.

> If the Chinese economy is hurt more than the American economy that is one level of success On the contrary, if the US economy was hurt, then its a failure. The point of "America First" is to care most about America, not about hurting others. > Then, if manufacturing moves back to the US and other Western hemisphere nations that's another level of success. No. The only success is if manufacturing moves back to the U…

The trade war, as far as I understand, started largely because companies were complaining about Intellectual Property being stolen. Although I figure the larger reason is China is a threat to American global influence, and we're trying to make sure we're the dominant country.

Regardless, I don't know how you quantify "if the US economy was hurt" in a consistent and accurate way. I'm sure some would want to use the S&P 500 or our GDP as a single measure. Neither of these things would immediately account for whether the obvious goal (not having IP stolen) or less obvious and quantifiable goal (dominance and global influence) are maintained, or suppose there's some other goal I don't know about, but it's more complex than saying we produced more value this year than last year.

I picture someone saying, "Look the S&P 500 went down, therefore the 'trade war' failed, see!" I'm not saying you would say that, I just think your definition, "if the US economy was hurt, then its a failure" leaves room for vague interpretation, where virtually any metric could be selected as proof of failure.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#195

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

99_00 wrote: post #117
AlexCoventry wrote: post #85

Has this kind of strategy ever worked, in trade negotiations? It seems about as likely to be effective as a bombing campaign: It'll reduce the other side's effectiveness, but from a negotiation perspective it'll only cause them to dig in harder.

China doesn't want a deal. They only want to continue to exploit the US. So the US is gradually decoupling from them.

"Exploit the US" by providing cheap labor to US firms? It's scary to see jingoistic rhetoric spreading on HN. China is the new enemy du jour, and lots of people here seem to be itching for a conflict.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#196

Post by tzs »

bduerst wrote: post #115
learc83 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obama's response to contain China was the TPP. It could have been more (or less--no way to know) effective than Trump's, Obama just didn't tweet about it.

Kind of - Japan ratified the TPP, and Obama just said he'd talk about it. Regardless, you're still right. In lieu of the TPP falling apart, China created it's own version to control APAC trade and fill the power gap, called RCEP. The trade war and the "America First" attitude has only incentivized China to speed up the negotiations, which if successful, will control something like half the world's global GDP. The nex…

> Kind of - Japan ratified the TPP, and Obama just said he'd talk about it

What do you mean by "just said he'd talk about it"?

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#197

Post by quotz »

dragontamer wrote: post #130
sremani wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TPP was bad idea, it was so anti-worker I am surprised that a Democrat is supporting it. I do not have to say about the settlement system of TPP. It was stupid, literally having parallel legal system outside of all the current legal system. TPP died for good reasons because it for technocrats by technocrats.

And under Trump, the steel tariffs have basically forced Ford and GM to stop making sedans in the USA and instead make them in Mexico. Ford Focus: moved to China (Ironically). Ford Fusion: Cancelled. GM Volt: Cancelled. Harvey Davidson: moving to Europe. Things aren't exactly simple, and I am not convinced that the tariffs + tax cuts have helped the American worker at all. US Manufacturing is down for two months in a…

Youre thinking in the short-term. Of course there are going to be short term economic losses for the US when Trump announced the bans and the tariffs. But its only short term until the west figures out how to defeat the communists. In the long term, theres gain, not just in the economy of western countries, but most importantly gain in human rights, human dignity, and most of all, liberty! China's oligarchs would get mad at the CCP when the economy starts going to shambles and when they cant take their money out of the country.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#198

Post by Consultant32452 »

voldacar wrote: post #186
Consultant32452 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's basically one company making all this fentanyl. We know where it is, we know where the CEO lives. He's walking around free and in the open in China.

It seems hard to believe that the rise of fentanyl could be traced to only one company/individual - could you be more specific about the person/people you're referring to?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-22/deadly-ch...

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#199

Post by sumanthvepa »

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. If I were the US govt., I would invest every available dollar and minute on building up a technological lead, because, oh boy it is going to need every last bit of advantage it can get. And even that may not be enough.

For the world, this may not be a terrible outcome, (although don't get me wrong -- no trade war would be the best outcome.) . For one thing, it breaks monopolies across the tech stack from E-commerce all the way to semi-conductor manufacturing equipment. That competition between US and Chinese companies can only benefit the world. It's happening in 5G already.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#200

Post by NotSammyHagar »

trhway wrote: post #103

if US wants to put pressure on and punish China, then instead of shooting itself in the foot and everywhere else with tariffs US could have just offered say 10K Green Cards (each coming with $1M resettlement bonus) to the top China researchers&engineers in any industry in China that US would want to cripple as a punishment. At $1M per such a top head it would be a steal for US, and for China it would be a very painfu…

This won't work for a lot of reasons. People make more than that even in china if they are top engineers. The green card maybe would be attractive.
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