161–170 of 225 posts
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This really isn’t answering the question. If a company is supply constrained, why would they be reducing prices? That’s literally the exact opposite of what should happen.
Increase the price of any car in the US by over 30%, and I guarantee you'll be suddenly "demand constrained" for that vehicle by your definition.
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People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…
And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? Never mind the fact that the Tesla beats every other EV on the road for a moment. The killer feature is the supercharger network. Are other manufacturers going to build 12000-15000 chargers all over the country that can top off the battery in 10-15 minutes before or after they build a decent car? You can’t take these other cars on anything…
On any CCS charger. Here are some examples of Taycan road trips:
- https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/porsche-taycan-makes-408-m...
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Amazon made a profit in 2003 and literally every year after that. Amazon can be forgiven for losing $1.6 Billion in the 2001 recession, but their pathway to profitability was rather short all else considered. Amazon has famously low margins, but those low margins commanded a mighty profit for decades. They are not the company you want to compare against Tesla. Tesla's strategy is supposed to be luxury vehicles at hig…
Cash Flow positive every year since 2003, not necessarily profitable. (Though the were profitable for some of those years, they weren’t necessarily).
2003: $35 Million profit
2004: $588 Million profit
2005: $359 Million
2006: $190 Million
2007: $476 Million
2008: $645 Million
2009: $902 Million
2010: $1,152 Million
2011: $631 Million
2012: $(39) Million 2013: $274 Million
2014: $(241) Million 2015: $596 Million
2016: $2,371 Million
2017: $3,033 Million
2018: $10,073 Million
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Aside from 2012 and 2014, Amazon was both profitable AND cash flow positive. Amazon was Cash flow positive all 15 years in this time period as well. But I'm talking net profit / net loss here.
IMO: there's no valid comparison to Tesla here. Amazon is not the company you want to compare against Tesla's performance.
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Anyway, yes, Jeff Bezos sacrificing one year or two years of profits (over 15 years) for greater long-term growth could make sense. That doesn't actually mean its healthy for Tesla to consistently lose money for 10 years straight.
I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!
Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…
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This is what you want to be looking at: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-inc...
Looking at it, it is revenue, gross profit and net income are all increasing by double digit percentage, every year. Still Tesla is spending a lot more, but less every year compare to the revenue. They are expanding quite quickly (new factory in China starting to produce this month), maybe too quickly ? It would be interesting to see during the next 6 months, how the production in China affects Tesla results.
Answer: a $5 Billion factory costs $0 in terms of profit. Its a capital-expenditure, affecting Cash Flow (not profits). Depreciation is how factories "wear out" in the income statement.
Tesla is not selling enough cars to make up for its $5 Billion investment in the Gigafactory. After many years, Tesla will only have made ~$4 Billion from a $5 Billion factory, by the time it has to replace all the equipment and pay $5 Billion again. (Made up numbers to roughly estimate what is going on here).
Tesla needs to make more cars out of the factory it has already built if they want to be able to rebuild the factory by the time all the parts wear out.
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Cash Flow positive every year since 2003, not necessarily profitable. (Though the were profitable for some of those years, they weren’t necessarily).
Amazon was profitable for nearly all years after 2003. 2003: $35 Million profit 2004: $588 Million profit 2005: $359 Million 2006: $190 Million 2007: $476 Million 2008: $645 Million 2009: $902 Million 2010: $1,152 Million 2011: $631 Million 2012: $(39) Million 2013: $274 Million 2014: $(241) Million 2015: $596 Million 2016: $2,371 Million 2017: $3,033 Million 2018: $10,073 Million ---------- Aside from 2012 and 2014,…
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Good thing they have another factory coming online this quarter :-)
I would be surprised if gigafactory 3 cars are exported from China. From what I understand, most domestically produced, internationally branded vehicles are sold within the county. (Audi, VW, Mercedes all manufacturer cars in China for domestic consumption)
But GF3 is what will push them from 8,500/wk ultimately to above 10,000/wk, and depending on exactly how quickly that ramp happens in Q4 will determine whether they end the year with 360k, or 380k cars sold.
They will head into 2020 at or close to an annualized production rate of 500k, which is what Elon predicted back in February. [1]
Assuming no further increases at Fremont, this requires GF3 to be producing at a rate of ~2,250/wk. Tesla has stated they expect to be producing between 1,000 - 2,000 cars per week at GF3 by the end of the year, rising to 3,000/wk in 2020. So more likely there are still some gains to be made in Fremont before the end up the year in order to hit 500k annualized.
By comparison Fremont was making 2,250/wk roughly 1 year after the first TM3 was produced (July 2017 - July 2018). This goes to show how much faster the production ramp can be the second time around. Unlike the first time when Tesla had never mass produced s vehicle before and was expecting “production hell”.
[1] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664?s=21
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Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
For the first ~10 years of existence they were barely a company. That Tesla has almost nothing in common with today's Tesla, not even Elon Musk. Not sure time since incorporation is the best metric.
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This is what you want to be looking at: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-inc...
Looking at it, it is revenue, gross profit and net income are all increasing by double digit percentage, every year. Still Tesla is spending a lot more, but less every year compare to the revenue. They are expanding quite quickly (new factory in China starting to produce this month), maybe too quickly ? It would be interesting to see during the next 6 months, how the production in China affects Tesla results.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Looking at it, it is revenue, gross profit and net income are all increasing by double digit percentage, every year. Still Tesla is spending a lot more, but less every year compare to the revenue. They are expanding quite quickly (new factory in China starting to produce this month), maybe too quickly ? It would be interesting to see during the next 6 months, how the production in China affects Tesla results.
Ask yourself: how much does a $5 Billion factory affect net-income. Answer: a $5 Billion factory costs $0 in terms of profit. Its a capital-expenditure, affecting Cash Flow (not profits). Depreciation is how factories "wear out" in the income statement. Tesla is not selling enough cars to make up for its $5 Billion investment in the Gigafactory. After many years, Tesla will only have made ~$4 Billion from a $5 Billio…