Am I the only one who thinks the Wall Street is playing dirty? Right before the report they increase the expectations so tesla miss, if they wouldn't increase it that should be a beat, same with eps last quarter. It feels like they force the news headlines to be 'tsla miss'. Or maybe I'm a bit fanatic, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
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Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are people really unable to tell the difference between when something is possible versus when it's likely? Maybe it's just my perspective as a physicist, but the gulf between those two things can be immense. Considering the factory coming online very soon, I think the situation is looking pretty good, actually.
Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.
Having to ship cars to the other side of the planet to the largest electric car market on the planet and pay super high import duties while not having access to local labor (etc) seems like a pretty thorough ball-and-chain on prices compared to what GF3 will enable.
Additionally, they have a significant update to the high end Model S & X coming (three motors), the 2020 Roadster, the Model Y, the Semi, and the Pickup all announced, some of which likely has suppressed demand for their current offerings, which they've been too busy ramping up Model 3 production for to ship. So I think demand is not a problem. And considering they're doing this at a time when their EV credit is nearly completely gone and gas prices are at a near-all-time-low, I think they're doing remarkably well.
...especially considering they don't have a moderately-priced SUV/truck/crossover available yet. None of the top 6 best-selling cars/trucks in the US are actual cars. Model 3 is doing remarkably well considering it's not an SUV, crossover, or a truck.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#43That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.
Good thing they have another factory coming online this quarter :-)
This month
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#44Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
So 2008 didn't happen I guess. I guess nobody in their right mind would buy and sell loans which aren't guaranteed. And I guess usable mass market EV's existed before 2018 and I guess Tesla is just running a scam .
What does 2008 have to do with anything? A company that hasn’t made a profit for 16 straight years, especially valued at billions of dollars, should be considered a extremely risky investment
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#46They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
Amazon was kind of similar
Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now.
I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities. It is the behemoth that it is because of the compounded value added over 14+ years. I see Tesla equally driven and able to take advantage of the things it puts in place now.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#47They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.
The street was expecting much higher than 100k. Down 4& after hour.
Currently Tesla's valuation is higher than both BMW and Mercedes. No doubt, they're enjoying rich multiple due to other forward-looking business units, but they're not generating any money. Their car business is what's keeping the light on.
On long term, Tesla's car business is uncertain. The first-mover advantage is eroding quickly as legacy mfrs are stepping up.
It's an extremely competitive business. And with $45k model flooding the market, the novelty factor of the brand is going to wear off very quickly.
Look at the new Porsche Taycan. To me, that's the new Model S.
Jung,
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…
Amazon made a profit in 2003 and literally every year after that.
Amazon can be forgiven for losing $1.6 Billion in the 2001 recession, but their pathway to profitability was rather short all else considered.
Amazon has famously low margins, but those low margins commanded a mighty profit for decades. They are not the company you want to compare against Tesla. Tesla's strategy is supposed to be luxury vehicles at high margins and relatively (relative to Ford / Toyota / its other competitors) low production.
In contrast: Amazon is low margins while out-producing its competition. A very, very bad comparison.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
TSLAQ is actually quite happy with this number, with the stock down 5% AH. The multiple on this stock has it pegged to be an extreme growth company, but 5% annualized delivery growth with shrinking ASPs is decidedly not a "growth" number. TSLAQ is wrong that it's a fraud and/or insolvent. But they're absolutely right that its valuation is absurd and needs to eventually come down to meet reality.
I think the promises around FSD are fraud, especially since they took a lot of money for it on basically just an over-optimistic hunch of being able to deliver it.
Did you pay for it.
Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3
#50They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
Let's also note that it's down 30% from peak this year. And that the price is heavily based on hypothesized future performance. And that Musk took a hype-driven strategy that, while getting him low-cost capital and a lot of free marketing, also has downsides. In particular, it creates a population of skeptics, and increases volatility when negative events cause former believers to become skeptics.