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Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#111

Post by jcfrei »

Keloo wrote: post #41

Am I the only one who thinks the Wall Street is playing dirty? Right before the report they increase the expectations so tesla miss, if they wouldn't increase it that should be a beat, same with eps last quarter. It feels like they force the news headlines to be 'tsla miss'. Or maybe I'm a bit fanatic, please correct me if I'm wrong.

What's the incentive for Wall Street "to play dirty"? Analysts at investment banks need to retain good relationships with the CEOs of the companies (they are not allowed to disclose any market relevant non public information but it still helps tremendously with their work) as well as the investors (by making good forecasts and retaining them as clients).

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#112

Post by [deleted] »

new_realist wrote: post #102
toomuchtodo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay. This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.

Tesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or so of significant problems.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#113

Post by [deleted] »

xkjkls wrote: post #63
gniv wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…

Amazon has been cash flow positive since 2003. Amazon has a unique negative cash flow cycle where they collected revenue significantly prior to paying their accounts payable. As long as they are constantly growing, it is basically like running a business on a credit card. Tesla is in a completely different situation. Cars require massive upfront investment before their revenue is realized, and given the results just…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#114

Post by kevstev »

kire2345 wrote: post #79
kevstev wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The operational problems can't be understated either. Customer service experiences that are all over the map (Ranging from they came out to my driveway and fixed my car to its been in the shop for 3 months with no end in sight), production issues, QC issues, engineering issues... for every way they tend to "surprise and delight" they also tend to find ways to horrify by not nailing the basics. And you only get to pla…

Please have a look at Tesla's revenue growth. It is a pretty clear hockey stick graph. See in this article: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/24/teslas-incredible-growt... The problems with customer service and production quality are to be expected if you scale at the speed that they currently do.

If you take a look at their quarterly production numbers, things don't look so rosy- they jumped from ~25000/quarter in Q4 2017 to 80k/quarter in 2018, but have not really moved the needle that much since then- this past quarter was 96k (96,155 if you want to get pedantic). Its fine growth for sure, but certainly not in a hockey stick matter- it makes me wonder where the disconnect is- how and when are they booking the revenue, and can this be expected to continue to jump if production isn't growing accordingly.

All the while, they are still losing money. This is not just about cash flow, this is about actual earnings. You have to look into where the disconnect there is as well to make a bull case.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#115

Post by sockgrant »

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #110
threeseed wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.

The Taycan is more expensive and has 100 less miles range than the S. The VW ID.3 is ugly, and it's long range version is 100 less miles than the Model 3 long range version. Neither have Tesla's charging network either. Range and charging is the most important thing about an ELECTRIC car. 100 miles is a big gap, and every car coming out has that gap.

Not to mention the Model S is faster 0-60 and cheaper.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#117

Post by threeseed »

caconym_ wrote: post #69

I've practically stopped hearing about Tesla in the news, which must mean they're doing great. Great job, Tesla folks!

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed.

Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on.

And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every review the best EV car money can buy. VW has the ID.3/ID.4 coming out shortly which look seriously good and they have plans for 70 models to be released in the coming decade. You have startups like Rivian which are attracting significant outside funding and disrupting segments. And at the cheaper price points you have dozens of Chinese manufacturers entering the fray.

Tesla is about to have the fight of their life and all while they are losing hundreds of millions each quarter.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#118

Post by erulabs »

threeseed wrote: post #94
s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has a major headstart and noone is near them or gaining on them. It's actually simpler. The attack campaigns negatively influence the stock.

Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.

The Taycan is $150k - it is not a mass market EV.

The VW ID.3/4 are not coming to North America.

The eTron, last month sold 434 units in the US. The Model X sold 1,675 in the same month in the US. The Model 3? 20,250. The I-PACE sold 160 units and the EQC isn't being sold yet. The eTron has been a massive sales disaster, sales are not growing. https://insideevs.com/news/369439/august-audi-e-tron-sales-u... https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-septemb...

I'm not trying to say Tesla has no risks at all, but you have to _really squint_ to not seem them as the clear market leader currently. The Model 3 simply has no competitors today - and to invoke the Taycan is about as disingenuous as it can get.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#119

Post by xkjkls »

__coaxialcabal wrote: post #77
xkjkls wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon has been cash flow positive since 2003. Amazon has a unique negative cash flow cycle where they collected revenue significantly prior to paying their accounts payable. As long as they are constantly growing, it is basically like running a business on a credit card. Tesla is in a completely different situation. Cars require massive upfront investment before their revenue is realized, and given the results just…

Semantics, but “negative cash conversion cycle”, not “negative cash flow cycle”.

You are correct; I type without proofreading

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#120

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

ianferrel wrote: post #52
gniv wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…

Amazon made their first quarterly profit 7 years after founding and their first annual profit 2 years later. That's longer than average, but it's also a lot shorter than 16 years.

Comparing pre-IPO Tesla to post-IPO Amazon is going to skew some things. I think it's better to compare post-IPO Amazon (1997) to post-IPO Tesla (2010).
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