Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

ir.tesla.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 225 posts

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#151

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

threeseed wrote: post #137
et2o wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

I wouldn't say 100% committed. VAG sells 10,000,000+ cars/year worldwide, so if they sell 100,000+ etron/Taycan/egolfs/etc this year, then they're maybe 1% committed. Hopefully the ID.3/4 will improve that, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Back in 2010, Audi said they would produce the etron by the end of 2012, which apparently is German for 2018. ;)

https://www.wired.com/2010/03/audi-electric-vehicles/

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#152

Post by cameldrv »

threeseed wrote: post #150
danhak wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.

In the EU for example Ionity is a superior charging network to Tesla's. And Tesla gets their batteries from the same place that everyone else does i.e LG. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-sai...

In the EU Ionity has 150 locations and Tesla has 400.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#153

Post by danhak »

threeseed wrote: post #150
danhak wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.

In the EU for example Ionity is a superior charging network to Tesla's. And Tesla gets their batteries from the same place that everyone else does i.e LG. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-sai...

There are currently 474 supercharger stations in Europe vs. 150 for Ionity: https://supercharge.info/charts

The link you provided refers only to the LG supply deal exclusively for Model 3 / China.

Tesla owns the largest battery production facility on the planet (Gigafactory 1 in Sparks NV) which supplies battery in partnership with Panasonic.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#154

Post by millettjon »

pembrook wrote: post #10
HenryKissinger wrote: post #4

Yet $TSLA has lost ~5% in after hours trading. Wat.png Edit: Wasn't aware of the 100k expectation.

Remember, stocks don't move based on headlines. They move based on expectations. If the market priced the stock based on an expectation they'd deliver 100,000 vehicles, 97,000 is a miss.

If the expectation was 100,000 then that was based on the headlines of Elon's leaked email...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#155

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

grizzles wrote: post #145
threeseed wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

S and X models are just the model 3 chassis with a different body & trim. Those are the parts of the car that are easy to change. Effectively they are selling the same product at 3 different price points. That's retail 101.

>S and X models are just the model 3 chassis with a different body & trim.

That's incorrect.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#156

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

mlpinit wrote: post #116

Tesla fan here but I have to point out that this headline seems very favorable. Other headlines indicate that despite the new record, the expected deliveries count was 99k. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-co...

That market "expectation" was increased to 99K just this week, after the email from Musk was leaked with a mention of 100K deliveries.

Don't trust these market "targets": these are mostly published and (silently) changed to pleased some analyst's clients and make the SP price to move in a preferred direction.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#157

Post by xkjkls »

wpietri wrote: post #50
xkjkls wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

Let's also note that it's down 30% from peak this year. And that the price is heavily based on hypothesized future performance. And that Musk took a hype-driven strategy that, while getting him low-cost capital and a lot of free marketing, also has downsides. In particular, it creates a population of skeptics, and increases volatility when negative events cause former believers to become skeptics.

Tesla's hypothesized future performance has continuously been pushed out longer and longer. The consensus 2020 EPS was $18 in 2013, and by today it is a negative number. You can't push out future performance for eternity.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#158

Post by clouddrover »

et2o wrote: post #127
threeseed wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

> Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon

Volkswagen will be delivering a lot of EVs in 2020. They're targeting everything from the low end (SEAT Mii) to the high end (Porsche Taycan).

Here's Volkswagen's EV lineup for the next 18 months:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (will be replaced by the ID.3, but still available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also a new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Cross Turismo variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/

And they'll have more models out in 2021, more in 2022, etc. Volkswagen means to be the biggest EV maker in a few years. They have both the investment and the scale to achieve it.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#159

Post by kire2345 »

kevstev wrote: post #114
kire2345 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please have a look at Tesla's revenue growth. It is a pretty clear hockey stick graph. See in this article: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/24/teslas-incredible-growt... The problems with customer service and production quality are to be expected if you scale at the speed that they currently do.

If you take a look at their quarterly production numbers, things don't look so rosy- they jumped from ~25000/quarter in Q4 2017 to 80k/quarter in 2018, but have not really moved the needle that much since then- this past quarter was 96k (96,155 if you want to get pedantic). Its fine growth for sure, but certainly not in a hockey stick matter- it makes me wonder where the disconnect is- how and when are they booking t…

I agree that the growth is likely to slow down somewhat in 2019. On a years view they produced about 253.000 cars in 2018 and will likely land at 360.000 in 2019. Nevertheless it is still 30% Growth YoY.

I would argue that slow down is mainly due to the nature of the production ramp, which goes exponential in the beginning but is now starting to flatten out. As it flattens though margins should continue to get better. If they get additional factories like the one in China it should reinvigorate the growth rate.

For me the bull story goes something like: they sunk a lot of money building out their very first mass producing production line, making a lot of mistakes on the way. Although they have some quality and service and margin issues people still keep buying their cars, which is the most important. Fixing the margin and other secondary issues is just a matter of time and continuous optimization.

So the most important of Musks hypotheses that people like buying electric cars if they are better in every important category is pretty much proven by now.

The second, that they are able to produce them at a profit is still to be proven, but economies of scale play a big role in that and they are first beginning to really leverage those.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#160

Post by jm4 »

et2o wrote: post #127
threeseed wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

And where the heck do you charge a Taycan or any other EV that’s not a Tesla? Never mind the fact that the Tesla beats every other EV on the road for a moment. The killer feature is the supercharger network. Are other manufacturers going to build 12000-15000 chargers all over the country that can top off the battery in 10-15 minutes before or after they build a decent car? You can’t take these other cars on anything but local trips if you can’t charge quickly. Most public chargers only charge at about 30 mph.
Post reply on HN