Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3 • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#141

Post by caconym_ » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:34 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #137

et2o wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

> as we've seen with the Taycan and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

The Taycan is not really competing with anything but Tesla's highest-end and presumably lowest-volume products, and the ID.3 and 4 don't exist as production cars yet (AFAIK).

Competing with them is obviously possible but these aren't very good examples.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#142

Post by agumonkey » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:37 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #78

slg wrote: post #20

That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.

Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

Honestly, unless they're doing really stupid things, they were announced dead every month during the previous years. Incapable of scaling etc etc.. Now they do. I think they'll do fine. (unless they do stupid things)

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#143

Post by danhak » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:38 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #137

et2o wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#144

Post by electriclove » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:39 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #137

et2o wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

Seems you think Tesla is going to fail due to the legacy car companies producing better EVs. Though I disagree, I would be ecstatic to see something like this happen. Sadly, as of today, I can't purchase any of those compelling vehicles you've mentioned.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#145

Post by grizzles » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:39 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #78

slg wrote: post #20

That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.

Demand mix is a huge problem though. Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit. Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

S and X models are just the model 3 chassis with a different body & trim. Those are the parts of the car that are easy to change. Effectively they are selling the same product at 3 different price points. That's retail 101.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#146

Post by llsf » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:40 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #122

ccorda wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last 4 quarters of free cash flow, seems quite sustainable: June 30, 2019 590.40M March 31, 2019 -944.80M Dec. 31, 2018 880.66M Sept. 30, 2018 831.52M

This is what you want to be looking at: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-inc...

Looking at it, it is revenue, gross profit and net income are all increasing by double digit percentage, every year. Still Tesla is spending a lot more, but less every year compare to the revenue. They are expanding quite quickly (new factory in China starting to produce this month), maybe too quickly ? It would be interesting to see during the next 6 months, how the production in China affects Tesla results.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#147

Post by omgwtfbyobbq » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:40 PM UTC

new_realist wrote: post #102

toomuchtodo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gigafactory 3 in China comes online this month. Manufacturing lines are already validated. I’d expect an increased step up in quarterly deliveries going forward. Also, no more Fremont->China ocean shipping delay. This puts Tesla on track to build and deliver 500k+ vehicles a year next year. This does not include energy storage sales out of GF1 in Nevada.

Tesla has never been able to bring a production line online without a year or so of significant problems.

Tesla's never copied an existing production line either though. The Model S, X, and 3 lines were all novel for Tesla. The Shanghai line should be a copy of the 3 line from Fremont for the most part.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#148

Post by jryle70 » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:40 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #74

graiz wrote: post #17

They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.

Simple. Everyone is getting into EV. There isn't a car company around right now that doesn't have an electric model coming out in the next couple of years. And so Tesla has nowhere to go but down.

Not sure I understand your logic. EV vehicles account for just over 2% of US vehicles sales in 2018. Globally it'd be more but still minuscule compared to ICE ones. The competition is getting fierce, but they compete for a bigger and bigger cake. If anything there are nowhere to go but up.

Tesla is the leader, not a follower in the segment. They have advantage of manufacturing, charging network, battery, software, and last but definitely not least their brand. If anything some laggards will lose out, for example Chrysler or Mazda.

Tesla booked about 110,000 orders this past quarter. That's a very healthy demand. [0]

[0] https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladelivering-record-cars-q...

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#149

Post by thethrowboat » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:41 PM UTC

et2o wrote: post #127

threeseed wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually they aren't doing so great. Everything has changed. Before last year it was basically just Tesla and a few token cars e.g. Leaf in the electric vehicle space. Now every car company is jumping in and any detractors e.g. BMW CEO are being swiftly moved on. And so Tesla is now competing against the most highly capitalised, profitable and experienced companies in the world. Porsche Taycan is based on every revie…

People have been making that exact argument for years. There have been so many "Tesla killers" that I've lost count. None have panned out. The Taycan is roughly twice as expensive as the equivalent Model S Tesla and has greatly inferior range and, among people likely to buy electric cars, presumably less brand value. People haven't forgotten VW's emissions scandal. Let's not forget they haven't even shipped a single…

Atleast in Europe i3 is selling almost as well as all Tesla models together. http://carsalesbase.com/car-sales-comparison/

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#150

Post by threeseed » Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 10:43 PM UTC

danhak wrote: post #143

threeseed wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you seemed to have completely missed my point. Car companies have been doing nothing for years. But now for the first time they are all 100% committed to EV. And as we've seen with the Taycan, EQC and the ID.3/4 they can easily compete with Tesla.

No one can “easily compete” with Tesla until they’ve secured 50GWh+ scale battery production and built out a global high-speed charging network that approaches the supercharger network’s coverage.

In the EU for example Ionity is a superior charging network to Tesla's. And Tesla gets their batteries from the same place that everyone else does i.e LG.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/tesla-sai...