America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#201

Post by kls » Sun, Sep 22, 2019, 11:10 PM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #186

kls wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because, I have for the past 44 years been in a hurricanes path on a pretty regular interval. It has not changes with the exception of a single year where I got hit by 4 of them. After that for the past 14 years it has returned to that interval where about once ever 8 years I either get winged or direct hit by a hurricane. Unfortunately the last one was a major hurricane. It's been 2 years so in about 6 I will get wi…

You've only lived through nearly 1.5 climatic periods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate#Definition The plural of anecdote isn't data.

And I was not alive in the 1930's (absolutely the worst decade for major storms). But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in...

Those where the two generations that saw the most sever storms. I am sorry but it's going to take a lot more data that the fact that the Keys got hit by a Cat 4 and the Bahamas got hit by a CAT 5 right near the peak of a cycle to convince me that this is somehow irregular when I have seen it every 8-9-10 years of my life on interval. Especially when I absolutely know there is science behind the 9 year cycle and have lived thru it. The article does a disservice because I live in the Keys and I absolutely know for a fact that the exodus is due to affordable housing. I talk to locals every day that are leaving, not a single one has mentioned the storm as a reason other than the fact that affordable housing has gotten even more expensive. The article is false on it's face no if and's or buts about it.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#202

Post by BurningFrog » Sun, Sep 22, 2019, 11:23 PM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #185

BurningFrog wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked it up, and current sea level rise is around 3mm/year, which adds up to a foot per century. More than I thought, but hardly a non outrunnable flood. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

Did you ignore the rest of the link you posted by mistake? > Higher sea levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges push farther inland than they once did, which also means more frequent nuisance flooding. Disruptive and expensive, nuisance flooding is estimated to be from 300 percent to 900 percent more frequent within U.S. coastal communities than it was just 50 years ago. The mean sea level rising isn't o…

> Did you ignore the rest of the link you posted by mistake?

No I intentionally read all of it. But you knew that :)

> The mean sea level rising isn't out-runnable, but the storm events can be.

Some low lying areas should probably be abandoned. My point is just that it happens very slowly, and can be planned for.

I also suspect some of that increase is because of bigger populations living near the coast.

> Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average

This is true regardless of climate change. Some land rises, other sink.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#203

Post by tmaly » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 12:28 AM UTC

shadowprofile77 wrote: post #76

Presumably I'll get downvoted for this but here it goes.. I know that news sites like to link anything they can to climate change in the global human-caused sense because it might create more clicks but how is this a "climate exodus" in that sense? It's more a case of people having built homes in a very flat, easily flooded place that has always been really, really shitty for living due to the dangers of extremely ba…

I saw worse in the Philippines several years ago. Bodies were piled like sardines after a category 5 typhoon. Its the nature of flat land to flood with bad storms

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#204

Post by justsubmit » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 1:06 AM UTC

qqqwerty wrote: post #183

justsubmit wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Reminding folks that climate change will result in more frequent and extreme weather events after/during extreme weather events is not lying. 1. That claim certainly isn't science, because it's neither reproducible nor falsifiable. 2. If it's not science, what is it?

I don't care if it fits your narrow definition of science. If a planet destroying meteor is hurtling towards earth, is that reproducible or falsifiable? Should we do nothing until you personally are convinced that it has been scientifically proven that it will destroy the planet. If we convert our entire energy and transportation sectors to renewable energy and climate change turns out to be a hoax, we still get clea…

> I don't care if it fits your narrow definition of science.

1. That's not my definition of science--it's the definition of science.

2. If your argument is not based on science, what is it based on?

> If a planet destroying meteor is hurtling towards earth, is that reproducible or falsifiable?

That scenario would be a matter of Newtonian physics, which any astronomer could run the numbers for. Newtonian physics is indeed reproducible and falsifiable, as demonstrated by the many objects launched into the solar system, as well as the astronomical observations and predictions over the centuries.

It's disingenuous to compare climate change alarmist claims based on primitive, already-falsified computer models to simple, proven Newtonian physics.

> Should we do nothing until you personally are convinced that it has been scientifically proven that it will destroy the planet.

Should we do what you demand when you demand it because you personally are convinced that the planet is going to be destroyed? (N.B. Earth will certainly be destroyed, either when impacted by a large celestial body or when the sun expands. Earth would not be destroyed by a minor GATA increase.)

> If we convert our entire energy and transportation sectors to renewable energy and climate change turns out to be a hoax, we still get cleaner cities, cleaner air and a cleaner environment.

If it might be a hoax, shouldn't we consider why such a hoax would be perpetrated? Might there be ulterior motives? What would be the implications of those motives?

> That is a perfectly acceptable consolation prize considering the potential risks.

Your analysis presented here is completely one-sided. It does not mention any drawbacks or side-effects. It is not impartial, it is not fair, and it is not scientific. It is not a reasonable analysis to act upon, especially considering the risks, i.e. decimating the economies and lives of billions of people in poor and developing nations.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#205

Post by D-Coder » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 1:19 AM UTC

geomark wrote: post #172

selectodude wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like Chicago is about as close to safe as it gets anywhere on earth.

You are joking, of course. A safe place would not have subzero temperatures during cold season. The world is full of much safer places where there are no weather extremes, earthquakes, or other natural disasters. Of course, you must also consider manmade disasters like overreaching government, civil unrest, and if there are oil reserves you risk invasion by other countries to liberate the population.

"The world is full of much safer places where there are no weather extremes, earthquakes, or other natural disasters."

Examples please? I may want to move to one of these places.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#206

Post by qqqwerty » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 2:46 AM UTC

justsubmit wrote: post #204

qqqwerty wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't care if it fits your narrow definition of science. If a planet destroying meteor is hurtling towards earth, is that reproducible or falsifiable? Should we do nothing until you personally are convinced that it has been scientifically proven that it will destroy the planet. If we convert our entire energy and transportation sectors to renewable energy and climate change turns out to be a hoax, we still get clea…

> I don't care if it fits your narrow definition of science. 1. That's not my definition of science--it's the definition of science. 2. If your argument is not based on science, what is it based on? > If a planet destroying meteor is hurtling towards earth, is that reproducible or falsifiable? That scenario would be a matter of Newtonian physics, which any astronomer could run the numbers for. Newtonian physics is in…

Nice one, demand that I provide irrefutable proof for my claims, while providing no evidence for your own. I should know better than to engage with climate trolls, but I have some time to kill, so here we go.

> 1. That's not my definition of science--it's the definition of science.

Definition of science: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/science

> That scenario would be a matter of Newtonian physics, which any astronomer could run the numbers for.

Please provide citations and evidence for these extraordinary claims. And no, academic references don't count because they are obviously biased due to them trying to advanced their own careers. I will only accept citations from 2-bit think tanks funded by mega-corporations that have obvious financial interests at stake.

> Should we do what you demand when you demand it because you personally are convinced that the planet is going to be destroyed?

Yes.

> i.e. decimating the economies and lives of billions of people in poor and developing nations.

Please use science to back up that claim. Until then, clean energy is the way forward. Its already cheaper[1], healthier[2], and creates more jobs[3] than fossil fuel.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-19/solar-and... [2] https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fu... [3] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#207

Post by sbierwagen » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 3:29 AM UTC

selimthegrim wrote: post #96

Animats wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest flood insurance beneficiary is the Houston TX area. "More flood insurance funds have been paid here than in any other National Flood Insurance Program-participating community."[1] "After the 1940's, the Harris County area did not suffer what would be considered a widespread, regional flood, that is, until June 2001." Since then, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2015, 2016, and right now. Houston way overbuilt in f…

Two of these are not like the others - are the ports (I count Galveston and South Louisiana as part of their nearby bigger cities) just going to be allowed to vanish?

Yes.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#208

Post by EdwardDiego » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 4:04 AM UTC

kls wrote: post #201

EdwardDiego wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've only lived through nearly 1.5 climatic periods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate#Definition The plural of anecdote isn't data.

And I was not alive in the 1930's (absolutely the worst decade for major storms). But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in... Those where the two generations that saw the most sever storms. I am sorry but it's going to take a l…

> But I know that things have not changes and they are certainly not more sever than the 1930's storms or for that matter the 1700's storms referenced in my families diaries.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z.epdf?auth...

> Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale

I'm not sure if you're expecting "Day After Tomorrow" sized storms or what, but the actual data points to changes in hurricane behaviour due to the warming climate.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#209

Post by CydeWeys » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 2:54 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #171

CydeWeys wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious connection to the climate crisis is that global warming is causing ice to melt and thus sea levels to rise. Rising seas are catastrophic for buildings and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas, which because of its geography Florida has more of than anywhere else in the US. The world is on the way to becoming uninhabitable for modern human civilization, and we're the cause. It happens that the majorit…

I looked it up, and current sea level rise is around 3mm/year, which adds up to a foot per century. More than I thought, but hardly a non outrunnable flood. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

There are non-linear feedback cycles at play here, plus our emissions of greenhouse-causing gases are still increasing as well. The sea level rise is currently on track to continue increasing every year, with a total of a lot greater than a foot by end of century.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#210

Post by refurb » Mon, Sep 23, 2019, 7:03 PM UTC

cure wrote: post #200

refurb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the taxes scale with income and a low income person would, in no way, cover the costs, Medicare and to an extent Social Security are a wealth transfer to the poor.

"Wealth" transfers to the poor to keep people alive and in good health and help lift them out of poverty are great policy. We need a lot more of those, because there are too many poor people, and they are suffering. The US is the richest country on earth, and this situation is plain wrong. In this particular case, though, any transfers are more 'chump change' than 'wealth' from the rich: Social Security tax is only l…

I’m not arguing against the wealth transfers, simply stating that the OP comment that “the gov’t is for the rich” is wrong.