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Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

forbes.com

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Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#111

Post by WorldMaker »

mises wrote: post #106
imtringued wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Future lithium batteries won't use cobalt.

Any source on this? I understand there alternative technologies, but most have disadvantages in terms of power density, longevity, price, etc.

Cobalt reduction has already been happening at a rapid pace. 2018 article mentioning Tesla cut their Cobalt needs by volume over 60%: http://www.digitaljournal.com/tech-and-science/technology/te...

Even if we can't get Cobalt to 0% (and there is plenty of research into other battery composites happening right now), the problems with Cobalt seem less to do with scarcity and a lot more to do with geopolitics (Cobalt is primarily sourced today as byproduct extracts of mines for minerals such as nickel in countries like Columbia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo). There's even indications that cobalt could be recycled from existing battery composites (as we do today already for lithium), but no economic incentive to do such because it isn't scarce enough to try.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#112

Post by woodandsteel »

kristianp wrote: post #34

The Forbes summary of the report it's covering says this only covers light duty vehicles and up to 40% of oil production. So still plenty of demand for oil for long haul ships and trucks I imagine.

No, this also is where things are going for trucks, it just will happen maybe 5 years later.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#113

Post by woodandsteel »

IloveHN84 wrote: post #53

But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on). That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom

The price problem is because the batteries are so expensive, but they are rapidly getting cheaper. They dropped 35& in 2018. The experts say around 2023 ev's will be sticker-price comparable with ice autos at the high end, and in succeeding years move down the line to smaller ones.

The auto industry realizes this is going to happen, and much of it is scrambling like crazy to be ready when it happens.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#114

Post by woodandsteel »

seventhtiger wrote: post #78
neltnerb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the cost of extracting it is too high, it stays in the ground. Otherwise, it gets used as a precursor for higher value products like plastics. The caloric value of a hydrocarbon is approximately the minimum price it can be sold for. Almost any other use will give higher returns to justify paying a higher price. Though hopefully it doesn't just mean more plastic everything, that would be disappointing.

Saudi Arabia extracts oil at $7-$15/barrel. The price should go up over time, but constant innovation in exploration and extraction drives it down also. Their reserves haven't gone down for 20 years because they are constantly exploring more fields. Currently their economy can probably remain stable until as low as $70/barrel for long periods of time although growth would be difficult. If their diversification effort…

>Oil is not going away this century.

No, it is going to go away. That is because most governments are scared to death of global climate change and are passing laws to do away with fossil fuel consumption. It's not happening all at once, but basically as fast as the technology comes into place to replace fossil fuels.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#115

Post by WorldMaker »

kristianp wrote: post #34

The Forbes summary of the report it's covering says this only covers light duty vehicles and up to 40% of oil production. So still plenty of demand for oil for long haul ships and trucks I imagine.

Some of the more sustainable long haul truck routes are likely going to go electric.

Hydrogen fuel cells likely won't be cost effective for cars, but may disrupt diesel in long haul ships and may be competitive against fast charging for the wilder long haul trucking routes.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#116

Post by WorldMaker »

emptybits wrote: post #41

I have questions about the environmental impact of EV batteries when it comes time to replace or dispose of them. I've read a few things, including an old statement by Tesla on the topic.[1] > Tesla: "our lithium ion cells contain no heavy metals, nor any toxic materials. In fact, our cells and Energy Storage System, by law, could be disposed of by putting them in a landfill. However, we have no intention of landfill…

Lithium-ion battery construction has been constantly changing since its invention in the 90s, but the basics have been the same rather consistently. The batteries are fairly universally "non-toxic" assortments of "light" metals and salts in organic (Carbon-based) solvents. (Lithium itself is Atomic Number 3 on the periodic table; it's an incredibly common light metal. Cobalt and Nickel in the high-20s are generally the highest atomic numbers you see in any of the battery formulas, and many of the compounds are "organic". Neither of which is a direct link between atomic number and organic nature to toxicity of the final compounds using it, see ethanol, but as a first order approximation it's an okay start.)

None of the big battery manufacturers (LG Chem and Panasonic are too other huge manufacturers to compare to Tesla for instance) are doing much at all different from Tesla.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#Environmen...

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#117

Post by WorldMaker »

henrikschroder wrote: post #108
doctor_eval wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see the claim that we need fossil fuels for airlines and rockets raised frequently, but once we have widespread renewable electricity, what’s the barrier to creating fuel from air and water, using electricity? AFAIK, it’s not really fossil fuels that are needed for planes and rockets, but high energy density liquid fuels, and these can surely be created renewably once we have a renewable energy infrastructure. Or h…

> what’s the barrier to creating fuel from air and water, using electricity? > it’s not really fossil fuels that are needed for planes and rockets, but high energy density liquid fuels The energy density of liquid hydrogen is really low, so that idea won't work. You want hydrocarbons of some sort, because they have the required energy density, so you could probably switch planes to run on some sort of biodiesel inste…

The energy density doesn't matter if the engine efficiency goes up. Early experiments with electric engines for planes seem to suggest that efficiency may go up enough that hydrogen fuel cells may be viable, whether or not battery tech gets there.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#118

Post by WorldMaker »

IloveHN84 wrote: post #53

But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on). That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom

VW seems to think the efficiencies of scale for EV production will catch up real fast to ICE vehicles. They think as soon as next year (and almost definitely by 2021) their EV cars will be cheaper than their equivalent ICE models.

There is going to be a really interesting tipping point in the very near future where the simplicity of electric drive trains is going to outcompete the very complicated supply chains of ICE engine parts. I've got a feeling VW is correct.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#119

Post by Gibbon1 »

api wrote: post #13
Gibbon1 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thing I read about the history of oil is energy return on investment went from about 125:1 in 1920 to about 10:1 now and tar sands are worse than that. If countries start slapping carbon taxes on oil, you can quickly see where that goes.

It costs so much less to drive an EV per mile largely because we get electricity from sources with a much higher EROEI than present day oil. Gas, coal, solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro are all much better. The low energy return of current oil is priced in. BTW it's not just obtaining the oil but refining it. Oil refineries use a ton of power usually from electricity, gas, or by burning some of the oil itself. Heavier…

Yes. From an energy efficiency point of view we'd be better off burning the oil used to make gasoline in a thermal power plant.

Your comment about Tar Sands reminds me of a quote I read a long time ago about the price of coal being linked strongly to the price of diesel. Not to mention fracking boom is just a way to turn free central bank loans into Nat Gas.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#120

Post by Gibbon1 »

doctor_eval wrote: post #98
Gibbon1 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Israeli company Eviation is claiming their yet to fly electric plane will have a range of 500 miles. I'm reserving judgement till I see it. If they pull that off it's a line in the sand.

This electric aircraft gets 60 minutes endurance and is flying today (apparently): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-04/first-electric-plane-...

Be interesting to talk to someone that has real experience with those.
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