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Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

forbes.com

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Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#61

Post by lnsru »

IloveHN84 wrote: post #53

But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on). That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom

One probably needs to develop and produce EVs in cheaper country than Germany. BMW and VW engineers earn ~100k € early, they are unionized and can’t be fired. As a result one gets ID.3 for 40k€. That’s already very expensive car for most Germans despite some pre-orders: https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c...

Last but not least: electricity. If you don’t have a garage, EV does not make sense. No easy overnight charging, I don’t want to park mile or tho away my car for few hours just for charging. And taxes! Most of petrol/diesel price in Germany are taxes, electricity is taxed much lower. Can government loose this stream of income that easy? Or electricity will be taxed same way in the future?

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#62

Post by [deleted] »

localhost wrote: post #19
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

That really is a remarkable visualization! So much so that I had to compute it for myself - 27,000 liters of gasoline will move an average car 287,000 km assuming 9.4L/100km which is the average 2017 fuel economy for a "car, light truck, SUV" in the US.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_automobiles

[deleted]

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#63

Post by perfunctory »

klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

> much easier to transport

I understand this to mean “cheaper to transport at scale”. You need to truck gasoline to a gas station every time. Once cables are laid, electricity transport is practically free.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#64

Post by kwhitefoot »

jhoechtl wrote: post #38
inflatableDodo wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. A cube 3 meters on a side can also contain almost 160,000 meters squared of solar cell wafers, given a common wafer thickness of around 170 micrometers. Assuming around ten square meters per car, that could keep nearly 16,000 cars on the road for decades. edit - to take this further, a standard shipping container…

> given a common wafer thickness of around 170 micrometers > So that comes to under 14,000 shipping containers full of wafers, which could fit in one single ship delivery, for all of the vehicles in the USA. Taking the thickness of 170 micrometers and extrapolating this measure of a solar waffer to the needs of US cars is just ... unreal. The OP came up with a serious relation. How many containers would be needed whe…

About 40 times as many. So 40 ships.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#65

Post by pkulak »

klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of gas cans hurtling down the highway?

I guess that's a valid point, but mailing DVDs still lost out to streaming, same as trucking and piping gas will lose to wiring.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#66

Post by nordsieck »

> Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered

I know the article was about cars, but fossil fuel will always have a place as aviation fuel. The only thing I can currently see ending that trend is widespread use of vacuum tunnel trains.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#67

Post by onion2k »

JackPoach wrote: post #56

The entire article is 100% bullshit and has nothing to do with EV per se. All you need to do is look at general electricity prices, which have been going up, not down, especially in the countries that have the highest renewable rate (Denmark or Germany). https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-el... Once electricity prices start collapsing and battery capacity issues are resolved, I'll start believi…

Here in the UK the price of petrol has gone up more than 50% in the past 20 years. So long as electricity is increasing in price more slowly its still more attractive as a fuel source.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#68

Post by doctor_eval »

nordsieck wrote: post #66

> Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered I know the article was about cars, but fossil fuel will always have a place as aviation fuel. The only thing I can currently see ending that trend is widespread use of vacuum tunnel trains.

I see the claim that we need fossil fuels for airlines and rockets raised frequently, but once we have widespread renewable electricity, what’s the barrier to creating fuel from air and water, using electricity?

AFAIK, it’s not really fossil fuels that are needed for planes and rockets, but high energy density liquid fuels, and these can surely be created renewably once we have a renewable energy infrastructure.

Or have I missed something?

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#69

Post by fromthestart »

onion2k wrote: post #67
JackPoach wrote: post #56

The entire article is 100% bullshit and has nothing to do with EV per se. All you need to do is look at general electricity prices, which have been going up, not down, especially in the countries that have the highest renewable rate (Denmark or Germany). https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-el... Once electricity prices start collapsing and battery capacity issues are resolved, I'll start believi…

Here in the UK the price of petrol has gone up more than 50% in the past 20 years. So long as electricity is increasing in price more slowly its still more attractive as a fuel source.

I imagine that has more to with taxes than anything else. Adjusted for inflation, petroleum is quite low compared to it's price over much of the last 3-4 decades.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#70

Post by onion2k »

fromthestart wrote: post #69
onion2k wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the UK the price of petrol has gone up more than 50% in the past 20 years. So long as electricity is increasing in price more slowly its still more attractive as a fuel source.

I imagine that has more to with taxes than anything else. Adjusted for inflation, petroleum is quite low compared to it's price over much of the last 3-4 decades.

The underlying cause doesn't make any difference to the consumer though. If you're saying people don't want electric cars because the cost of electricity is increasing you have to weigh that against the cost of alternatives, and electricity is still better.
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