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Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

forbes.com

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Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#51

Post by Iv »

emptybits wrote: post #41

I have questions about the environmental impact of EV batteries when it comes time to replace or dispose of them. I've read a few things, including an old statement by Tesla on the topic.[1] > Tesla: "our lithium ion cells contain no heavy metals, nor any toxic materials. In fact, our cells and Energy Storage System, by law, could be disposed of by putting them in a landfill. However, we have no intention of landfill…

There is a lot of FUD spread over EVs right now. There seems to be a lot of people hating to see them branded as "green" technology. I think both the oil industry and the "return to nature"-type ecologists don't like this narrative, but from all I have seen, in terms of environmentalism, EVs are a huge step up.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#52

Post by NotSammyHagar »

HALtheWise wrote: post #33
ccsnags wrote: post #25

Lithium batteries aren’t green at all. Going to EVs just changes the impact on the environment. If we can’t solve the end of life issues with lithium batteries, we need to look at them as a technology adjacent to petroleum when it pertains to environmental impact. A true step forward would be an innovation of power storage itself, rather than the mechanisms around it. Build a better gas tank.

It seems likely that the end of life for vehicle lithium ion batteries will look roughly similar to end of life for vehicle lead acid batteries today. Namely, lead acid batteries are recycled at a rate of 99.3% in the US, making them the most recycled consumer good. The demand obviously doesn't exist right now because so few electric cars have reached end of life, but it seems like the transitioning the world to batt…

tesla's plan for old car packs that lost some range is to turn them into home battery packs.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#53

Post by IloveHN84 »

But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on).

That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#54

Post by seszett »

tzs wrote: post #37
HALtheWise wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and the grandparent's calculation can be accomplished by simply dividing the fuel volume by the "area" of the car's efficiency (or multiplying if using MPG, which is inverse area) https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%283m%29%5E3*24.9mpg

Pico hectares are a good unit of area to use for this. For a car that gets N miles/gallon, for 1/N gallons/mile, that works out to 235/N pico hectares. That results in nice small, but not too small, numbers for most current cars, around 50 pico hectares for a Humvee in the city to around 4 pico hectares for a Prius on the highway.

Square centimeters or millimeters seem easier to visualise. The area represents the size of the tube that feeds the engine to get this mileage. You could even express it in the form of a radius.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#56

Post by JackPoach »

The entire article is 100% bullshit and has nothing to do with EV per se. All you need to do is look at general electricity prices, which have been going up, not down, especially in the countries that have the highest renewable rate (Denmark or Germany). https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-el...

Once electricity prices start collapsing and battery capacity issues are resolved, I'll start believing the story.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#57

Post by paganel »

Diederich wrote: post #21
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

With existing infrastructure, for most locations, electricity is far easier to transport than gas. Even with some necessary scaling to support widespread car charging, electrical infrastructure is far more robust, redundant and safe than the gas.

You should define “most locations”, because in my opinion that term does not include an entire continent, Africa, where power blackouts are more than common (that is where the power network had indeed arrived). You can also add an entire sub-continent, India, which granted doesn’t fare as bad as Africa but which also has its share of power cuts. And probably some parts of South America too, Venezuela most likely. This US- and Europe-centric view doesn’t do anyone any good.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#59

Post by dwaltrip »

JackPoach wrote: post #56

The entire article is 100% bullshit and has nothing to do with EV per se. All you need to do is look at general electricity prices, which have been going up, not down, especially in the countries that have the highest renewable rate (Denmark or Germany). https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Line-graph-of-average-el... Once electricity prices start collapsing and battery capacity issues are resolved, I'll start believi…

Time is not an axis in the graphs you linked, so they don't support your statement.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#60

Post by feedbeef »

vvanders wrote: post #18
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

It's a shame that we don't have the technology to pull energy from the sun and turn it into electricity.

Or from the air.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wireless_System

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla_electric_car_hoax

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