Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#141

Post by dsfyu404ed » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:32 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #126

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game As long as they have food, water and the will to fight. They can play the long game too if they are so inclined. Eventually the CCP will get tired of the expensive, resource sucking bridge to nowhere. Sure, China could carpet bomb HK but the more you destroy it the les…

China has far too much to lose to back down on this one. One could argue the HK protests threaten the survival of the Chinese Communist Party. Far better for them to lose HK and be condemned globally than lose the all of China.

But the question is how far are both sides willing to go with the violence?

The further the CCP goes the more they risk deepening the resolve of your opponent (especially with a highly united population as in the case in HK). So far it appears that all escalations have done just that. The crux of the issue is that the people of HK do not want to be ruled over by the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people. Any escalation by the CCP confirms to the people of HK that the CCP is in fact the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people, not the new friendly CCP that does not drive tanks on people. So what does the CCP do then? They either back down or try to up the violence hoping it'll be too much for them. By upping the violence the CCP is gambling that they draw throw in the towel before HK does. At some point (only recognizable in hindsight) the line between protests/riot and open revolt will be crossed. Beyond that point it's fundamentally a gamble that a strong majority of people in HK would rather accept subjugation than die. Since this is somewhat an existential issue for them they may very well choose the latter. How does the CCP "win" against that? People who accept that they are probably going to die resisting are un-govern-able. Your soldiers can patrol the streets and they will still take pot-shots at you. Every time you get one another will pop up. There is no way to "win" against that unless your definition of "win" includes complete eradication. The only historical occurrence I can think of where a people who had resigned to death wound up surrendering involved strong central leadership telling them to surrender.

Obviously it's a shit situation no matter how you look at it with outcomes ranging from bad to worse in the short and medium term.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#142

Post by gruez » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:32 PM UTC

auslander wrote: post #132

Tip for protesters: paint cocktails. Bottles with hard to remove paint. I bet police will run out of uniforms quickly. They wont be seen on streets in painted suits and face shields.

What paint is hard to wash off? You can remove most with acetone or paint thinner (mineral spirits).

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#143

Post by i_am_proteus » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:35 PM UTC

coldtea wrote: post #136

i_am_proteus wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this sarcasm? While no authoritarian government can exist with no consent of the government, the PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.

Huh? If we're strict, it has plenty of avenues, including courts and elections [1]. They might be nominal, but legally they do exist and operate: [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

Elections are meaningless if the public can't decide who runs.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#144

Post by andrekandre » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:35 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #133

nailer wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong needs people in the PRC to start demanding their own representation. The CCP has might, but not enough to take on the Chinese people a second time. You can't be a people's republic if the people didn't vote for you.

Is this sarcasm? While no authoritarian government can exist with no consent of the government, the PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.

that’s basically true, but it does seem china does have some nominal democracy at local levels, which then in turn elect upper levels and so on [1]

so, while indirect, there does seem some nominal way to disagree as you say

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#145

Post by billfruit » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:37 PM UTC

tobtoh wrote: post #72

dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

This is what I find the missing perspective in the coverage of this issue, I think instead of any hard actions, Chinese Govt is likely to just wait, perhaps for years and see the protests lose steam, while doing a few cursory measures to dissipate the protests. There is no sense of urgency the Government is showing towards tackling the protests.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#146

Post by xxxpupugo » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:37 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

Most important thing for CCP right now is have to this settle.

Formal withdrawal of this bill will at least meet a huge demand of the general public. As to other demands, the support will be waning. That would be what the central government wants.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#147

Post by leftyted » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:37 PM UTC

anvandare wrote: post #62

dragonsh wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. This is endorsed and approved by Beijing, she already declared the bill dead this is just a matter of wording. Legally it can be brought back as laws are always evolving and Hong Kong needs an extradition treaty with other jurisdiction including another system in its own country. For Mainland Chinese citizen the narrative will be altered, but will still be seen as…

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

> Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time."

The post you responded to did not say "don't resist". It said "don't use violence".

Peaceful protest has some track record of bringing down systems, ending regimes, and enacting lasting change. Violent protest has a worse track record; it mainly alienates the man on the street and it cannot build consensus.

War can bring about lasting change, but only if your side wins. The difference between war and violent protest is that war implies two sides, each of which has a strong consensus. Violent protest only implies factions. Eliding this difference is a mistake.

This is not to say that violence is unjustified, just that violent protests almost never enact lasting change (because they do not create consensus).

> All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun

All political power emanates from consensus. Violence and coercion can only replace consensus for short periods of time. Consensus can be established and maintained through propaganda and brainwashing - which is frightening and complicates the picture.

If Mao was right then there would be no difference between a gunman and a police officer with a gun. Of course there is every difference in the world between those two figures, a fact proven by how differently we react to them.

> All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to revolt and string up the members of an oppressive regime from lantern poles. The Founding Fathers understood that more than anything else. The First Amendment is worthless without the Second Amendment.

I agree: sovereignty is defined by the ability to make exceptions. Citizens are only sovereign insofar as they can choose to remove themselves from their obligation to their nation.

My sense is that peaceful protests are the best way to bring about lasting change in China. What the anti-PRC groups need to do is build consensus. Once they've done that, if change does not follow, then war is on the table. But until consensus exists, I believe that violence will fail spectacularly.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#148

Post by auslander » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:43 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #142

auslander wrote: post #132

Tip for protesters: paint cocktails. Bottles with hard to remove paint. I bet police will run out of uniforms quickly. They wont be seen on streets in painted suits and face shields.

What paint is hard to wash off? You can remove most with acetone or paint thinner (mineral spirits).

> Tip for protesters: paint cocktails. Bottles with hard to remove paint. I bet police will run out of uniforms quickly. They wont be seen on streets in painted suits and face shields.

Dunno, but graffiti is a pain to wash off the walls.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#149

Post by zajd » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:44 PM UTC

leftyted wrote: post #147

anvandare wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>only peaceful non-violent struggle can bring about real change. Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." All political power emanates from the barrel of a gun. All civil power emanates from the people's latent threat to rev…

> Utterly false, but persistently preached by those in power to ensure there's never any real threat to their position. "Just lie down while I stomp your neck. Don't resist. We'll discuss your objections later, at a more convenient time." The post you responded to did not say "don't resist". It said "don't use violence". Peaceful protest has some track record of bringing down systems, ending regimes, and enacting las…

> Violent protest has a worse track record; it mainly alienates the man on the street and it cannot build consensus.

Crack open a history book some day my friend, I think you'll find quite a different story. Now, material circumstances have changed over the centuries which definitely changes the equation, but violent protest has overthrown countless regimes throughout history and if I were a betting man, I'd say we haven't seen the end of them yet.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#150

Post by dirtyid » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 1:44 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #141

refurb wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has far too much to lose to back down on this one. One could argue the HK protests threaten the survival of the Chinese Communist Party. Far better for them to lose HK and be condemned globally than lose the all of China.

But the question is how far are both sides willing to go with the violence? The further the CCP goes the more they risk deepening the resolve of your opponent (especially with a highly united population as in the case in HK). So far it appears that all escalations have done just that. The crux of the issue is that the people of HK do not want to be ruled over by the iron fisted CCP that drives tanks on people. Any es…

China relocated millions of urban youth to country side reeducation camps during the cultural revolution. If push comes to shove, it's well within the capability of the CPC to relocate the problem population in HK. The fact is, Beijing has not used any physical levers yet.