Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

forbes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 124 posts

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#71

Post by Thlom »

lnsru wrote: post #61
IloveHN84 wrote: post #53

But all the small electric cars are just starting at the shamed price of 35/40k € ( Peugeot 208, VW ID.3 and so on). That is a huge barrier of entrance. At the same price, one can buy a BMW or Audi. We need an economic model to let the EV industry boom

One probably needs to develop and produce EVs in cheaper country than Germany. BMW and VW engineers earn ~100k € early, they are unionized and can’t be fired. As a result one gets ID.3 for 40k€. That’s already very expensive car for most Germans despite some pre-orders: https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/vw-zwickau-factory-electric-c... Last but not least: electricity. If you don’t have a garage, EV does not make sense.…

With range now at 500km+ for many cars that's not a huge issue for most people. If you can't charge at home, maybe you can charge at work, at least sometimes? Or the grocery store has a fast charger so you can charge when you shop? Or the shopping mall or whatever. Unless you have an extreme commute you don't have to charge every day.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#72

Post by trothamel »

Diederich wrote: post #21
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

With existing infrastructure, for most locations, electricity is far easier to transport than gas. Even with some necessary scaling to support widespread car charging, electrical infrastructure is far more robust, redundant and safe than the gas.

Not sure that's true. A gallon of gas has 33.4 kWh in it, and the US limits fuel pumps to 10 gallons per minute - it's moving 334 watt-hours per minute, or moving 20 megawatts.

It looks like electrical equipment of that scale tends to confined to substations, power plants, and other controlled areas.

When it comes to robustness, you often see power after a hurricane supplied by gasoline powered generators, with the gasoline supplied by any means necessary. (When the last hurricane hit here, gasoline was available for quite a long time before the grid was repaired.)

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#73

Post by dagw »

Iv wrote: post #44
klwejchkwejrhc wrote: post #16

>renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand Hmm, not sure about that "much easier to transport" part. A cube 3 meters on a side can contain enough gasoline to power the average car for its entire lifespan. The gasoline is a liquid, it is relatively easy to move it between containers. Any tec…

That's a nice image, but you are making a case for storage, not transport. Transportation of (flammable) liquids require either vehicles (and hence roads or rails if you go inland) down to the last mile. Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Also if you consider the logistics of bringing energy to different places of a building, wires are much easier to lay down than pipes.

Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build.

Have you tried?

The marginal cost of driving an existing truck 10 mile down an existing road is negligible. Getting electricity to a place that is even half a mile from the nearest place that currently has electricity can be incredibly expensive and time consuming. Even just applying for the right permits and getting the go ahead from the local power company to start pricing out the job can take months.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#74

Post by ggm »

dagw wrote: post #73
Iv wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a nice image, but you are making a case for storage, not transport. Transportation of (flammable) liquids require either vehicles (and hence roads or rails if you go inland) down to the last mile. Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Also if you consider the logistics of bringing energy to different places of a building, wires are much easier to lay down than pipes.

Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Have you tried? The marginal cost of driving an existing truck 10 mile down an existing road is negligible. Getting electricity to a place that is even half a mile from the nearest place that currently has electricity can be incredibly expensive and time consuming. Even just applying for the right permits and getting the go ahead from the local power com…

Why did you compare existing sunk cost with non existing future Capex? The road will need replacing. The truck sending fuel will need replacing. These costs have to be borne. Yes a road exists. But electricity supply also exists.

Compare like with like please.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#76

Post by olau »

doctor_eval wrote: post #68
nordsieck wrote: post #66

> Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered I know the article was about cars, but fossil fuel will always have a place as aviation fuel. The only thing I can currently see ending that trend is widespread use of vacuum tunnel trains.

I see the claim that we need fossil fuels for airlines and rockets raised frequently, but once we have widespread renewable electricity, what’s the barrier to creating fuel from air and water, using electricity? AFAIK, it’s not really fossil fuels that are needed for planes and rockets, but high energy density liquid fuels, and these can surely be created renewably once we have a renewable energy infrastructure. Or h…

Yes.

And small electric planes are in fact beginning to show up. It is my understanding that going electric enables more efficient designs, and with those one or two decades of further battery tech development might actually get us large planes too.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#77

Post by Iv »

dagw wrote: post #73
Iv wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a nice image, but you are making a case for storage, not transport. Transportation of (flammable) liquids require either vehicles (and hence roads or rails if you go inland) down to the last mile. Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Also if you consider the logistics of bringing energy to different places of a building, wires are much easier to lay down than pipes.

Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Have you tried? The marginal cost of driving an existing truck 10 mile down an existing road is negligible. Getting electricity to a place that is even half a mile from the nearest place that currently has electricity can be incredibly expensive and time consuming. Even just applying for the right permits and getting the go ahead from the local power com…

Tried what? Running a wire vs building a road?

Of course non-existent wire vs existing road is not competitive.

If both exist, electricity wins. If neither exists, electricity wins. And electricity has that added advantage that you can buy an equipment that will produce it in place without consuming additional resources.

The only case where fuel is competitive is when roads exist, electricity distribution doesn't, and diesel generators are installed.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#78

Post by seventhtiger »

neltnerb wrote: post #12
psadri wrote: post #2

The question on my mind is what else will this freed up oil will be used for? One area could be cheaper fuel for aviation? More plastics? This of course ignores the environmental cost of continuing to use oil.

If the cost of extracting it is too high, it stays in the ground. Otherwise, it gets used as a precursor for higher value products like plastics. The caloric value of a hydrocarbon is approximately the minimum price it can be sold for. Almost any other use will give higher returns to justify paying a higher price. Though hopefully it doesn't just mean more plastic everything, that would be disappointing.

Saudi Arabia extracts oil at $7-$15/barrel. The price should go up over time, but constant innovation in exploration and extraction drives it down also. Their reserves haven't gone down for 20 years because they are constantly exploring more fields.

Currently their economy can probably remain stable until as low as $70/barrel for long periods of time although growth would be difficult. If their diversification efforts succeed in the next decade they will be less reliant and will be able to sustain much lower prices.

Every last drop in the Persian Gulf is economical for the foreseeable future. Fuel is the least profitable and they are already switching to petrochemicals. Oil is not going away this century.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#79

Post by YokoZar »

Iv wrote: post #77
dagw wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity requires a wire, which is far less costly to build. Have you tried? The marginal cost of driving an existing truck 10 mile down an existing road is negligible. Getting electricity to a place that is even half a mile from the nearest place that currently has electricity can be incredibly expensive and time consuming. Even just applying for the right permits and getting the go ahead from the local power com…

Tried what? Running a wire vs building a road? Of course non-existent wire vs existing road is not competitive. If both exist, electricity wins. If neither exists, electricity wins. And electricity has that added advantage that you can buy an equipment that will produce it in place without consuming additional resources. The only case where fuel is competitive is when roads exist, electricity distribution doesn't, an…

Since you need the road for the car to drive on, it's kind of fair to assume the road is a given.

Re: Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days as a Transport Fuel Are Numbered

#80

Post by adrianN »

nordsieck wrote: post #66

> Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered I know the article was about cars, but fossil fuel will always have a place as aviation fuel. The only thing I can currently see ending that trend is widespread use of vacuum tunnel trains.

Hydrocarbons will have a place as aviation fuel for the foreseeable future. It is unlikely that they'll be made with fossil carbon for much longer.
Post reply on HN