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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Affirm loan product for peloton is 0% only (with no late fees in any circumstance).

Instead of $1,995 up front, it's $3,783 over 39 months due to a subscription contract bundled with the financing. This is a very clever way to claim "no interest" but actually charge 27% APR. There are absolutely customers who buy this but can't afford it.

That is some interesting SaaS+hardware financial wizardry.

As you said, very clever.

Re: Peloton S-1

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people get too confident and overextend themselves. It sounds like you are stereotyping Peloton purchasers into one group, then assuming that the majority of them can't afford nice things. What if you look at it from the flip side and say "people buying $2.4k in-house bikes have a lot of money and all is well in the world"?

People with lots of money don't buy on credit because the credit is expensive. So it really comes down to whether most purchases are on credit or not. US consumer debt peaked in 2008/9, dropped until 2014 and started rising again - it's now higher than 2008/9. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-debt-is-now-br...

> People with lots of money don't buy on credit

Interesting, but lots of wealthy people do finance their purchases, especially if they are active investors.

Someone elsewhere in the thread mentioned that the Affirm rate is de-facto 0% if you factor in the subscription for the full-term. Taking that as fact (apparently it's changed now, so can't 100% confirm), you'd have to be pretty anti-debt (or lacking in cashflow) to pay in full on that rather than earn interest on the balance for 3 years if you intended to book the subscription anyway.

Re: Peloton S-1

#183
post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

I had no idea! I had to go find it for myself: https://www.onepeloton.com/membership $19.49/mo gets you all the content. It's double that ($39) to make use of the bike's live metrics/dashboard/leaderboard, plus the bike itself is $2245. This is really interesting to me, as I've heard quite a few people say that the content is what they really like.

I have been using a cheap stationary bike ($200) plus an ipad running free indoor biking workout videos for about 6 years now. I love it - so much so that I created a website to store all the best motivational content I can find for endurance training workouts.

I'm doing Startup School this summer with the project - Slipstream https://slpstream.com/

The mission is to make it easier for people to get a workout done with a motivational content assist. Most of the content is free access, some is from Netflix/Amazon Prime Video and others. I don't produce content, just recommend the best I can find.

In some ways it could be seen as an alternative to Peloton for people who don't want to add another subscription. Or those who would rather use their own equipment.

Initial features are a filter so you can narrow your search by media type (podcasts, documentaries, guided workouts) featured sport, access type (free/Netflix/Amazon Prime etc.) duration, etc. Also a playlist/bookmarking feature where you can cue up a series of videos to roll through during your workout or bookmark podcasts or other content for later.

Roadmap/wishlist is to build a community where users can recommend content to the main site and to each other. Also to monetize via ad sales for promoted posts and featured sponsor/athlete pages where they could feature their content and product recommendations.

I'd love any feedback from readers of this thread who have used Peloton or spent time thinking about it or using alternatives.

p.s. I have a ton more content on my to-add list. If you have any suggestions you can submit content on the site https://slpstream.com/contact/

Thanks!

Re: Peloton S-1

#184
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps a better investment would be to buy a road bike for $2,000. Spend $245 on a trainer and gear. Finally, get the subscription to the classes, and now you have both Peleton classes and a road bike.

Perhaps. How do road bikes on trainers handle out of saddle riding? Many spinning classes involve out of saddle riding.

This question was asked numerous times on every bike/trainer related discussion board. They handle just fine. I have my carbon bike on a trainer like 5 years already every winter and part of spring

Re: Peloton S-1

#185
post #103

I’m a mega bear on this. It’s Juicero 2.0 The bike’s only have a lifetime of a couple years and the experience isn’t that great. The promise of software upgrades only take it so far until planned obsolescence kicks in. This is just creating a fleet of useless metal that will have software vulnerabilities up the wazoo in a decades time.

I'm genuinely curious:

> The bike’s only have a lifetime of a couple years

What's your source for this figure?

> and the experience isn’t that great.

According to whom? You? Or the legions of apparently very satisfied subscribers?

Re: Peloton S-1

#186

I have been waiting for essentially this, but with racing games onscreen. Does anyone know if they allow, or plan on allowing third party apps and games? I can see a game like Mario Kart being very popular.

That would be amazing... I've never tried a spin class but if I knew that I could play Mario Kart or Burnout or something like that on the bike... what an idea!

Re: Peloton S-1

#188
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. How do road bikes on trainers handle out of saddle riding? Many spinning classes involve out of saddle riding.

A modern smart trainer will continually vary the resistance level based on software cues to simulate inclines, head/tailwinds and the effects of drafting. If your Zwift ride arrives at a steep climb, you'll need to downshift and get out of the saddle to keep up, just as you would do in the real world. Peloton has a mechanical knob that controls the resistance. It's clear that a lot of people love the Peloton experien…

"Thing is bad at something it's not built at all for." Peloton is a fancy spin class bike it was never meant for actual training about road riding, beyond the aerobic training aspect it's completely separate from biking.

Re: Peloton S-1

#189
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER (capital purchases by manufacturing) It isn’t even clear that there is a risk of a recession according to some economic indicators.

In 2008, this indicator didn't turn down until the recession was well underway.

What about earlier ones? 2008 was a recession because the bottom fell out of the credit market after the subprime bubble popped not because of larger trends so it makes sense that capital investments didn't decline until they just couldn't get credit.

Re: Peloton S-1

#190
post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

I have it and I like how the whole package works together -- in particular, how certain teachers are very careful to show how to keep good form for your back etc. When I see a guy on the same exact machine as me, showing bad form like a slightly curved back or whatever with the heels, and then correcting to the proper form, referencing the same bike, on a giant Android tablet in front of me, that is very helpful. And…

Want to know another awesome product?

An actual road bike. You can, like, go outside and stuff.

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