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Peloton S-1

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Re: Peloton S-1

#151

Post by dave_aiello »

uptown wrote: post #4

The Peloton "How I Built This" episode is well worth a listen for anyone interested in the company. https://www.npr.org/2019/04/05/710439824/live-episode-peloto...

Good call.

At 33:30, John Foley and Guy Raz start talking about the Kickstarter and how it didn't achieve its goals.

At 35:00, they talk about the the initial pricing for the bike being breakeven ($1,200) and how that didn't work. The feedback was "at $1,200 [the bike] 'seems cheap', 'it sounds cheap.' And so, we said, well, let's increase the price...."

You can listen to more of the podcast, unpack this, and analyze what the reveals about that the demographics of the customers with whom they've connected so far. Without any intent to be critical, the HN readers who think the bike is too expensive have the opposite reaction to the people who became customers.

I suspect the average Peloton customer has more money than time.

Re: Peloton S-1

#152

Post by lonelappde »

gamblor956 wrote: post #47
Alex3917 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

This is nothing like Juicero. Peloton addresses two real needs in the exercise marketplace: home-based classes, and high-quality exercise machines. It simply combined both into one product. There is huge demand for the former, especially from white-collar workers with high demands on their free time, and a a fair amount of demand for the latter. At $2000, a Peloton bike is $1000 to $2000 cheaper than the cheapest car…

There's absolutely no reason to buy an expensive fast stationary bike. It's an oxymoron.

Re: Peloton S-1

#153

Post by lonelappde »

Brendinooo wrote: post #44
Alex3917 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

It's way too expensive for me and I have no interest in doing cardio indoors, but I think you're missing out on the value of the digital side of the product. I think exercise bikes and treadmills are dreadfully boring, but what Peloton offers is exactly targeted at that problem. Adding an array of things to do and a social aspect has to be a big deal, and if that's all packaged together in a high end package that "ju…

I can watch Netflix or YouTube (exercise motivation vids or general interest vids) on my tablet to keep me busy while I stationary bike.

Re: Peloton S-1

#154

Post by lonelappde »

Judgmentality wrote: post #37
Alex3917 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the surface this is basically the Juicero of fitness equipment. If you want a good piece of workout equipment, buy a Concept2 erg. If you want a bike, you can get a carbon-frame bike for the same amount of money and then just get a trainer for it. Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. The one argument in its favor is that youth sports are usually very heavily subsidized by masters sports. So if you we…

> Ostensibly there is zero reason for this to exist. It's a lot more convenient to exercise in your living room than go outside or go to the gym. I thought Guitar Hero was stupid and people should just buy a guitar, but people loved it.

GH is $50, not $2000

Re: Peloton S-1

#155

Post by lonelappde »

gamblor956 wrote: post #50
jimbob45 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like you're onto something. They take an iPad, slap it on an exercise bike, and charge $2000 for it. I could do that for the cost of the parts. The only thing protecting their business model is their exclusive patent on the idea. Perhaps the patent system is what is truly at fault here?

Ipad: $800 (for similar size screen) Quality bike of similar component parts: $800+. Trainer: $800. You're already $400 behind the cost of a Peloton, which is only $2000... If you have access to wholesale prices for these parts, sure you could build your own Peloton at home. But using off-the-shelf parts you're just wasting money.

Why do you need a quality bike? You don't need it to be fast or efficient or have good shocks or tires if it's stationery.

Re: Peloton S-1

#156

Post by jdietrich »

uptown wrote: post #106
SCAQTony wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps a better investment would be to buy a road bike for $2,000. Spend $245 on a trainer and gear. Finally, get the subscription to the classes, and now you have both Peleton classes and a road bike.

Perhaps. How do road bikes on trainers handle out of saddle riding? Many spinning classes involve out of saddle riding.

A modern smart trainer will continually vary the resistance level based on software cues to simulate inclines, head/tailwinds and the effects of drafting. If your Zwift ride arrives at a steep climb, you'll need to downshift and get out of the saddle to keep up, just as you would do in the real world.

Peloton has a mechanical knob that controls the resistance.

It's clear that a lot of people love the Peloton experience, but it's a pretty lousy training tool for any kind of real cycling.

Re: Peloton S-1

#157

Post by jdietrich »

kjbfojbejib wrote: post #84
uptown wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a couple writeups on the web. Here’s one I used: https://www.sippingandshopping.org/my-peloton-bike-alternati... Presumably that post has affiliate links. It’s not my page. I guess they’ve raised the subscription price. I think I’m grandfathered in at $13/mo paid via iTunes which I preload with discounted iTunes cards to knock another 15-20% off the price paid. I do wish I had the metrics and integrated solut…

> I do wish I had the metrics and integrated solution. The only metric that matters is how many workouts did you do today, or this week. Unless perhaps you're planning on entering some sort of competitive spinning event all those numbers don't add up to anything.

>The only metric that matters is how many workouts did you do today, or this week.

Not if you're actually serious about going faster on a bike. Power data (as provided by basically any non-Peloton smart trainer) is incredibly useful in maximising the effectiveness of workouts and measuring your fitness. A high-end smart trainer like the Wattbike will also give you data on power delivery through the pedal stroke and left/right power balance, which has real implications for performance.

Re: Peloton S-1

#158

Post by etjossem »

RobPfeifer wrote: post #118
etjossem wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely this. A bubble doesn't look like one until it pops, so you can't just say "everyone's buying $2000 spin bikes, everything must be fine." For starters, Peloton does a majority of its sales through Affirm and other consumer financing instruments, and books them as revenue. It's more accurate to say "everyone is buying $2000 spin bikes using 30% APR installment loans." In the risks section, Peloton says that…

The Affirm loan product for peloton is 0% only (with no late fees in any circumstance).

Instead of $1,995 up front, it's $3,783 over 39 months due to a subscription contract bundled with the financing. This is a very clever way to claim "no interest" but actually charge 27% APR. There are absolutely customers who buy this but can't afford it.

Re: Peloton S-1

#159

Post by sfblah »

lonelappde wrote: post #150
uptown wrote: post #11

Under the risks section: "We derive a significant majority of our revenue from sales of our Bike and a decline in sales of our Bike would negatively affect our future revenue and operating results;" What many people don't know is that you can access all their classes using your own exercise bike and their apps, paying a little over 1/4 of the normal monthly subscription fee. The limitations of this approach is that y…

Peloton's absurd price is the only reason it is popular. It's for people who want a song and dance with their exercise instead of focusing on working out.

This is exactly right. Good comment.

Re: Peloton S-1

#160

Post by xeromal »

spunker540 wrote: post #149
stefan_ wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In particular, Peloton's target market is overwhelmingly female . You won't find it in this S1, but this alone is why you can straight up disregard everything you will read on HN today about their business model. No, it turns out women don't buy carbon bikes, a standalone trainer, wrench a cassette on it, put the bike on, hook up a tablet somewhere, install a power meter, ... it's the ole "rsync is superior to Dropbo…

I think your rsync-dropbox analogy is a good one, but I also found your statement about how it's a gender thing to be somewhat sexist, (it almost sounds as if you're implying that rsync is for men and dropbox is for women because in general men are more inclined to do difficult things than women).

I think he's harkening more to the standard try-hard neckbeard analogy than just genders. Usually women aren't lumped into that category. I think it's nuanced, but I don't think he meant any harm when writing.
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