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Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

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Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#271

Post by pmoriarty »

intopieces wrote: post #226
dep_b wrote: post #81

As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.

This was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Please, please do not take a free China for granted. Do not think that change — that democracy and freedom — is…

"The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline."

I wouldn't be so quick to chalk this up to some sort of spontaneous decision originating with the Chinese people.

Remember that any sort of political dissent or organization tends to be quickly and effectively quashed in China by the authorities. Leaders and activists are imprisoned, tortured, disappeared, or "reeducated". The media and education systems are tightly controlled to only show and teach what the authorities want, and as a result the rest of the population (minus the "counterrevolutinary" leaders and activists, who've been weeded out) has been manipulated to think the way the authorities want them to think and say things the authorities want them to say, and if they don't there are very real consequences.

That said, as long as mainland China is prosperous and more and more people are lifted out of poverty, it's unlikely to have a real revolution. HK is in a different position, as they were already prosperous and have faced worsening conditions since they've been under the Chinese yoke.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#272

Post by gurkendoktor »

krageon wrote: post #151
gurkendoktor wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has nukes. Absolutely nothing will happen China has shown (again) in their treatment of Hong Kong that they don't care about past agreements. The least that anyone can do, even in the presence of nukes, is to get their business out of China, and that is already happening to some degree. And of course be welcoming to people who choose to emigrate from Hong Kong.

China was always going to annex Hong Kong eventually, this is something almost everyone with any interest in this particular situation has known for many years. Spinning that particular situation in a reason to boycott a country (and replace it with what? India isn't exactly a paragon of virtue and neither is the US, and let us never speak of the stain that is Russia) is a strange mental place to go to.

It wasn't going to "annex Hong Kong eventually", but in 2047. Changing a timeline by decades is exactly the stuff that businesses are allergic to, and it won't help this trend:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/07/16/europe-joi...

I don't see what's controversial about that. The bigger question is whether this will hurt China at all; time will tell.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#273

Post by the-dude »

chewz wrote: post #209
jbay808 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other than the US and Britain and a token force from Australia, which western countries invaded Iraq?

Estonia, Salvador, Bulgaria, Moldova, Albania, Ukraine, Denmark, Czech Republic, South Korea, Tonga, Azerbaijan, Singapore, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Macedonia, Latvia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Mongolia, Georgia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Italy, Spain, Thailand, Philippines, Iceland... and some more https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93...

That can't be right : the countries you list might have occupied Iraq at one point in time, but did not partake in the invasion.

It was the US, UK, AU and PL : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#274

Post by nabla9 »

intopieces wrote: post #226
dep_b wrote: post #81

As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.

This was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Please, please do not take a free China for granted. Do not think that change — that democracy and freedom — is…

As life conditions improve, the change is inevitable. Not liberal democracy, but some radical change.

Chinese middle class may not demand democracy but they are clearly unhappy with the judiciary. Some kinds of checks and balances and independent juridical system is where it may start.

Maybe we should look how some European monarchies gradually transformed over centuries.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#275

Post by chewz »

pgeorgi wrote: post #260
chewz wrote: post #231

West wasn't ready to die for Danzig in 1939 and isn't ready to die for Hong-Kong in 2019. The result could be similar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Die_for_Danzig%3F

Claiming > West wasn't ready to die for Danzig in 1939 by linking a Wikipedia that argues that this slogan was a fringe opinion that was promptly disavowed by political leaders and had _very_ limited political or societal impact in general doesn't really help make a case.

Still the fact is that West appeased Hitler and didn't strike when it had a chance in 1939. The result was long war with millions of victims.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeasement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#276

Post by justicezyx »

dep_b wrote: post #81

As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.

> Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous.

No. HK people are not enjoying enough middle-class comfort and prosperity.

Precisely, HK's income inequality is even worse than mainland China (0.537 vs. 0.467). And because HK has historically been more liberal, it's a subject of many rich and powerful, especially the demand from mainland people drives the real estate price even further [3].

HK's violent street protest is because there isn't a strong and significant middle class group. Otherwise, we all know for sure that middle class are never politically radical, nor are they willing to sacrifice their livelihood for the so-called freedom.

[1] https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/06/09/hong-kong-household-in...

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/250400/inequality-of-inc...

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/correction-not-a-crisis-in-h...

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#277

Post by resters »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #171
loyukfai wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did protest start to become common in the states?

Well in 1688 Quakers in America protested against slavery. 1773: Boston Tea Party. Temperance in the 1800's. Women's Vote in 1913. But they entered the public awareness in 1963 with the March on Washington, and haven't let up since.

> and haven't let up since.

Or one could observe that it has completely let up and now most Americans are cynical about protests and cheer on authoritarian figures from both parties.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#278

Post by the_watcher »

noio wrote: post #241
big_chungus wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit sad, but I believe "protests" have lost their meaning. All of what you described were meaningful events, but it these days some one is always protesting something. For instance, there are "women's marches" every year turning out tons of people in a society where equal rights are constitutionally enshrined. That probably doesn't merit such an event. My concern is that if, Heaven forbid, there is ever again…

Are you talking about the US? I though the Equal Rights Amendment was not yet ratified, and that equal rights are thus not actually 'constitutionally enshrined'?

The ERA is not the only way or attempt in the Constitution at enshrining equal rights. The ERA is about sex specifically, which is arguably already covered by the text of the 14th Amendment (some may disagree about the 14th Amendment in practice, but it's hard to argue that the text doesn't cover sex).

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#279

Post by ocschwar »

woah wrote: post #220
netsharc wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that a matter of semantics.. if a Polish highway being built has a sign next to it that says it is 20% sponsored by the EU, doesn't that mean 1 out of every 5 Zloty the roadbuilder is earning comes from the EU?

And Alabama is heavily subsidized by New York City. So what?

Well, Poland and Alabama both have Putin's malicious attention when it comes to political interference.

Re: Chinese military entering Shenzen, just across the border with Hong Kong

#280

Post by lambdasquirrel »

Jgrubb wrote: post #88
dep_b wrote: post #81

As incomes rise in China people will demand other things from the government than food, shelter and a comfortable middle class life. Hong Kong was ahead of the rest of China since they have been living pretty liberal under UK rule and were more prosperous. Whatever they do in Hong Kong now will not stop from things happening all over China at a given point.

Never underestimate the persuasive power of a regime murdering several thousand people in plain sight. I remember thinking the same thing about the Arab Spring in 2009.

AFAICT, that’s ironically that’s the main reason why the CCP can paint the protesters in a bad light.

Look at what happened in Libya, Syria, Egypt, etc. Do you want your country to become like that? Do you want to welcome an American intervention, and the joy and prosperity it brought to Iraq? Do you want to invite Western management of capitalism and the success it wrought in Russia in the 90’s?

You can disagree with the CCP’s premise, but US actions in the Middle East, and perceived US meddling in the world has done more to reinforce the CCP’s rule than any other country. And if there’s one thing East Asian cultures really dislike in society, it’s uncleanliness and disharmony. In particular, China’s history is one civil war and famine after another, with a period of peace in between, and the West seems to fundamentally misunderstand how they think over there.

I’d wager that the CCP can open fire with machine guns on the protesters and they might even be cheered on in the mainland. But they probably won’t, perhaps even fearing in the back of their mind what an example that will set in some later time. How would they justify that? That it’s okay to light into American-supported protesters? Who have had it so good for so long in the gilded city of theirs? And make no mistake, there is a tone of anti-mainland on the HK’ers part that can be easily construed as snobbery as well. That would all be a sort of nationalism you can’t walk back on easily.

To that end, you should not suppose that when a revolution in China — as it inevitably will — will be produce a government friendly to your values. It did not happen in Russia, it hasn’t been happening anywhere in the Middle East, even in Iraq where the US poured a trillion into the effort, and Europe is arguably weaker for what has been happening there as well.

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