Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry • Hacker News Board

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#181

Post by chunkyLafunga » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:27 PM UTC

Fjolsvith wrote: post #107

maypeacepreva1l wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am curious how you justify your position by looking at few members of the team. Trade is a complex issue and Trump single handedly is jeopardizing this sensitive topic by openly declaring trade wars with multiple nations in open platform like Twitter. Where were those members when that was and is still happening?

You are only seeing half of Trump's hand by looking at Twitter. Trump has a front channel which is Twitter (et. al.) and a back channel which you nor I am privy to. He uses both of these to achieve results. Also, assuming that Trump doesn't utilize advisers seems to be willful ignorance. Trump studies a topic in depth before making a decision, and he very much listens to experts in that study.

really?????? Mr. I know more about.... (fill in the blanks)... than everyone else, listens to experts, give me a break.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#182

Post by pinkfoot » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:28 PM UTC

LMYahooTFY wrote: post #163

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American companies have access to the Chinese market. If you go to any major Chinese city, that will be obvious to you pretty quickly. American brands are everywhere. US companies do very well for themselves in the Chinese market. The reason for the trade imbalance is not Chinese protectionism, but rather structural issues in the United States and the Dollar's role as global reserve currency.

> American brands are everywhere. Some American brands are everywhere.... Obviously some have been heavily restricted, most prominently internet media companies.

China Mobile would also point out how heavily restricted Chinese telco brands are in the USA.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#183

Post by jjwhitaker » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:35 PM UTC

ptah wrote: post #56

>To ease the blow, Micron appears to have found a workaround. It said it had recently resumed some shipments to Huawei based on its interpretation of the Trump administration’s restrictions, noting that some goods produced by American companies overseas are not always considered American-made. This sounds like the trade war is discouraging US-based manufacturing

That makes sense. With import tariffs in both countries aimed at goods from the other a firm may find it economically viable to shift production (like Apple) to another country with costs lower than tax paid to customs.

That will force US firms to move production out of China and/or the US to cut costs long term, which makes sense. It takes a lot to build a steel mill or DRAM plant and those projects will probably try to weather the storm but other countries can make shirts and plastic toys easily enough. For Micron, they already have manufacturing capacity outside the US but not in China. Defending their legal argument of being a US company that doesn't make US goods is probably hugely cheaper than tariffs.

Tariffs probably shouldn't be used like they are here anyway. They can be an incredibly powerful negotiation tactics when applied surgically to industries where production can't shift or is specialized to the target country. Like sanctions they can push a deal from on or off the table but they work best when the countries/economies are mismatched like Iran vs the US+EU.

When applied like a blanket you just end up taxing imports without a plan and hurting everyone. There was no obvious need to do so here especially as the lopsided trade deficit (which is not explicitly bad) lends so much leverage to China who does have cash on hand to invest in industry to offset losses while the US has a spiking deficit once again like with the last few GOP administrations.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#184

Post by chunkyLafunga » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:37 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #140

tomp wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why dproblem 's reply is not just downvoted, but flagged... Literally Trump's doing nothing else that retaliating to China's own trade war that they've been waging for the past decade+... Except within a much more powerful and ruthless political system.

I understand that and I agree China's trade practices were unfair and needed to be addressed. The way to do that is with co-ordinated and concerted international pressure based on consensus. Up against a united international front, China would have little option but to concede. However Trump is a nationalist and a unilateralist so he's simply incapable of doing it. Incidentally this is why nationalists are almost uni…

I couldn't agree with you more, the only way to deal with China is a united front, and China knows that, that's the reason they have been reducing tariffs for import from other countries.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#185

Post by chunkyLafunga » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:44 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #16

I am pretty sure that China is going to take a temporary hit but in the end they will emerge stronger than ever. I think China will also redouble on their efforts to be full self-sufficient in all high tech areas, even if they have to open up for a sanction relief deal, their population will so favor local competitors, that it won't matter. China's rise will continue and dominant until their demographic bubble bursts…

They are already leading in 5G technology, chinese companies are spending more in R and D, its only a matter of time that they will be able to wean them selves from buying/stealing tech.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#186

Post by hugi » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:49 PM UTC

Fjolsvith wrote: post #97

hugi wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the US seems to really envy them, getting off to a slow start with just a few measly Mexican kids in their camps.

I'm pretty sure the occupants of the Chinese concentration camps didn't climb a fence to get in there.

lol

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#187

Post by chunkyLafunga » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:51 PM UTC

jjwhitaker wrote: post #183

ptah wrote: post #56

>To ease the blow, Micron appears to have found a workaround. It said it had recently resumed some shipments to Huawei based on its interpretation of the Trump administration’s restrictions, noting that some goods produced by American companies overseas are not always considered American-made. This sounds like the trade war is discouraging US-based manufacturing

That makes sense. With import tariffs in both countries aimed at goods from the other a firm may find it economically viable to shift production (like Apple) to another country with costs lower than tax paid to customs. That will force US firms to move production out of China and/or the US to cut costs long term, which makes sense. It takes a lot to build a steel mill or DRAM plant and those projects will probably tr…

If you look at how China has been applying tariffs on US goods, its surgical, they only tariff goods that they know they can get somewhere else, they haven't put tariffs on anything they they know they can only get from the US.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#188

Post by wolco » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:56 PM UTC

fatbird wrote: post #102

mistermann wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think an argument could be made that Republicans, or at least conservatives, have now become the defenders of free speech while "the left" seems not just comfortable with but intent on increasing censorship, at least certain kinds. I will note that this isn't a complete slam dunk of an argument, I would say the left in the 60's was motivated more by the general principle of free speech, whereas I would say the righ…

Most here at HN think of the left as wanting more censorship in order to avoid hurtful speech, but that's not generally how the left thinks of it. On the left, the view is that the practice of maximizing freedom of speech by tolerating extreme speech, has the effect of reducing the freedom of expression of the non-extreme, non-powerful constituencies. In other words, protecting freedom of expression by politely toler…

They believe in maximizing group speech in the largest diverse group as possible.

This is what happens with religion. Everyone is welcome and encouraged to believe these truths and questioning them will get you kicked out or ex-communicated or at best ignored and re-educated.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#189

Post by mistermann » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

maypeacepreva1l wrote: post #146

mistermann wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am curious how you justify your position by looking at few members of the team. If you review my comment carefully, you may notice (especially prior to my edit) that I haven't stated a particularly strong or distinct "position". Rather, I was asking a specific question about the specific literal words of someone else's stated position/belief. I suspect that what has happened here in both cases is that subconsciou…

You are suggesting Trump is doing this based on recommendation of his team or in depth analysis of the topic. Your proof being members of his team. Even though trade is complex issue, people will understand careful diplomacy. What Trump is doing is like carrying a sledge hammer and out in full swing against trading nations. There is no pattern or logic to it, other than scare tactics. If you can point out to why you…

See edit above.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#190

Post by wolco » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 6:03 PM UTC

danaris wrote: post #160

fatbird wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most here at HN think of the left as wanting more censorship in order to avoid hurtful speech, but that's not generally how the left thinks of it. On the left, the view is that the practice of maximizing freedom of speech by tolerating extreme speech, has the effect of reducing the freedom of expression of the non-extreme, non-powerful constituencies. In other words, protecting freedom of expression by politely toler…

This is exactly correct, but unfortunately, because your first sentence is true, you're getting significantly downvoted. It is an example of the paradox of tolerance: If a group believes in tolerance, absolutely, to the point that they tolerate intolerance , then over time, those who are intolerant will tend to gain power within the group and the tolerance will be eroded (except, of course, the tolerance of those int…

If people put there own needs first you end up with a selfish group that doesn't serve society only themselves. People believing in an abstract idea can rally society around important causes.