Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry • Hacker News Board

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#91

Post by olefoo » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 1:49 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #83

typon wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

It is easy to complain generally, but is is better to be specific about what ways you think America is not free. Americans still enjoy great freedom of speech and association, for example. No Lèse-majesté in the land of the free. There is a lot of propaganda but that isn't necessarily inconsistent with freedom. The real issue is there is a risk that economically speaking America is less free than China. For all that…

> That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law

The rule of law is looking pretty tattered and worn in the US of A right now. What with the President committing obstruction of justice in plain view and his AG declaring that a sitting President may not be indicted for any crime.

Not to mention the grotesque violations of human rights that are happening at the network of concentration camps the current administration has repurposed.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#92

Post by Fjolsvith » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 1:55 PM UTC

spease wrote: post #82

BigChiefSmokem wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theres a good reason why we shouldn’t use direct democracy and the Founders where very clear about that.

You mean the concern that the people might elect a demagogue...?

After the next 6 years of "America being greater", I am sure that your concern will definitely be a sticking point to returning to a majority rule election system.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#93

Post by andrewla » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 1:59 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #74

typon wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did. It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule. It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

> America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote.

This is technically correct. Less accurate, but implied, is that a majority of voters wanted a different president. That may be the case, but the evidence is not sufficient to confirm or reject it.

First off is that turnout is very low relative to the number of eligible voters. Secondly is that the electoral college and states' decision to only do "all-or-nothing" apportionment means that it's a totally rational decision to stay home if your state is not close, since your vote has no chance of affecting the election besides the value of signalling that opposition to the consensus exists.

If Lessig's scheme [1] works out to break the winner-take-all apportionment, we could at least start to see some meaningful turnouts because the battle for a single electoral vote can be a close contest. More likely to succeed by less interesting (because your vote does not contribute to a single outcome but just to the collective) we have the interstate compact [2], which this year has made good progress towards achieving a majority.

[1] https://equalvotes.us

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta...

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#94

Post by mikekchar » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:00 PM UTC

mistermann wrote: post #86

geogra4 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your last paragraph is very much missed by trump and his team.

I'm curious what your thinking is behind this. Ok, maybe you're a believer in the Trump's an idiot meme, fine, but do you actually think not a single person on Trump's trade team understands that trade wars are a high risk undertaking, that it might not be a complete cakewalk? Take Robert Lighthizer for example: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighth... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robe…

Not the OP, and I would not have put it like the OP did, but I can't help but think of the tariffs put in place on memory chips back in the late 80s. In fact, I had to Google the date to make sure I got it right and in doing so, I noticed articles saying that Trump is comparing what he's doing with the tariffs that Regan put in place. Those tariffs had the effect of completely destroying the last of the US memory chip production. The parallels are kind of interesting.

I actually have no good insight to add as I have no idea if the tariffs that Trump has put in place will have the desired effect. I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess. I think it's an area where even an expert can embarrass themselves by claiming that they can predict what will happen -- and I'm definitely no expert. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds, though.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#95

Post by maypeacepreva1l » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:01 PM UTC

mistermann wrote: post #86

geogra4 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your last paragraph is very much missed by trump and his team.

I'm curious what your thinking is behind this. Ok, maybe you're a believer in the Trump's an idiot meme, fine, but do you actually think not a single person on Trump's trade team understands that trade wars are a high risk undertaking, that it might not be a complete cakewalk? Take Robert Lighthizer for example: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighth... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robe…

I am curious how you justify your position by looking at few members of the team. Trade is a complex issue and Trump single handedly is jeopardizing this sensitive topic by openly declaring trade wars with multiple nations in open platform like Twitter. Where were those members when that was and is still happening?

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#96

Post by adinobro » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:02 PM UTC

tekkk wrote: post #38

pjc50 wrote: post #9

This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…

Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering. So it's not very symmetric free trade with China, therefore giving some justification for this silly trade war. It's understandable though from China's perspective, that they aren't willing to give up important strategic sectors like social media or internet se…

There are stacks of US companies that have made a significant entry into China:

  * Coke
  * Starbucks (the largest one in the world is currently in Shanghai)
  * KFC
  * McDonalds
  * Pizza Hut
  * Domino's Pizza
  * US movies regularly make as much money in China as they do in the US.
  * General Motors sells more cars in China than in the US.

Have they put in place limits that they are legally allowed to put in place based in WTO rules? Yes.

Part of the reason that AWS has two separate companies is because China, the US & the EU have laws like the CLOUD Act, GDPR and CDPR. It is easier to keep all companies seperate or at least siloed which is what most large companies do.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#97

Post by Fjolsvith » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:05 PM UTC

hugi wrote: post #67

dractori wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has over a million people in concentration camps right now https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps

And the US seems to really envy them, getting off to a slow start with just a few measly Mexican kids in their camps.

I'm pretty sure the occupants of the Chinese concentration camps didn't climb a fence to get in there.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#98

Post by benj111 » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:05 PM UTC

cinquemb wrote: post #77

benj111 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"profits from semiconductor companies that came from lines released pre-2000 vs after" If you look at industrial applications though. The machine you start designing today probably will use chips designed at least 5 years ago, if its another 5 years before your machine hits the market, that's 10 years before the end consumer even gets their hands on the product. Then you're going to be selling that machine for 10 yea…

>I would question why they haven't attracted investment in such a situation. I wouldn't say there isn't investment in new industries/tech upstream, but that it isn't in anything at a point that's driving consumer demand/profits. >To put it more directly, what do you know that people with billions to invest, and access the experts in the field don't? I'm interested in brain computer interfaces (worked/consulted in mul…

"its not hard to see how $10-100 billion or more of other peoples money mostly being burned"

Creative destruction is both a weakness and a strength though.

Yes you have billions being thrown at the wall and seeing what sticks, but some of it will stick, and based on past experience will more than offset what fell to the floor.

The Hedge fund you mentioned, if you're right should be very successful, that will attract more money, until eventually there will be too much money going into these underfunded areas.

You seem to be complaining about essential features of capitalism, on one level you may be correct, just like observing that eating too much pizza will make you fat, but just like the fat, it's an inherent 'feature' that you can't really fix.

Ps "I wouldn't say there isn't investment in new industries/tech upstream, but that it isn't in anything at a point that's driving consumer demand/profits"

Much handwringing has been had complaining about the short termism of the markets, investing long term is good, yes ideally there should be a constant pipeline of new products, I don't think you can write off the industry that there isn't though.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#99

Post by OrgNet » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:05 PM UTC

seren wrote: post #19

I believe this not only affecting the US. I still have not quite understood the deal around ARM, that will stop cooperating with Huawei. This is a UK based company, owned by a Japanese conglomerate, Softbank, but they were still affected because they have a development center in Texas. The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ba…

What if they decide to say that anyone selling to China is not allowed to sell to the USA?

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#100

Post by adventured » Fri, Jun 28, 2019, 2:06 PM UTC

olefoo wrote: post #91

roenxi wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is easy to complain generally, but is is better to be specific about what ways you think America is not free. Americans still enjoy great freedom of speech and association, for example. No Lèse-majesté in the land of the free. There is a lot of propaganda but that isn't necessarily inconsistent with freedom. The real issue is there is a risk that economically speaking America is less free than China. For all that…

> That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law The rule of law is looking pretty tattered and worn in the US of A right now. What with the President committing obstruction of justice in plain view and his AG declaring that a sitting President may not be indicted for any crime. Not to mention the grotesque violations of human rights that are happening at the network of concentration camps the current…

The US is not running a network of concentration camps.

A hundred thousand illegal immigrants per month are being caught crossing into the US through the southern border.

No other liberal democracy - from Canada to Finland to Japan to Australia - would tolerate such a flood of illegal immigration. Not even remotely close. Canada freaks out when a couple thousand illegal immigrants cross into its territory from the US in a given month.

Holding illegal immigrants in detention facilities, because there is nowhere else to put them until they can be processed, is not the same thing as a concentration camp. Claiming that they're the same thing is a gross abuse of the term and its history.