Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 223 posts

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#81

Post by mistermann »

danaris wrote: post #55
wil421 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget the Republican and Democratic parties kinda did a flip. I’m not sure if Nixon’s 1960s Republican party was the same as it is today. It was certainly starting to head the way it is today in the 1960s.

The Republican and Democratic parties did a flip around the turn of the 20th century. What's happened since the 1960s is more that the Republican party has been charging madly off into the far right (and, in some cases, simply into looney-land), while the Democratic party has shuffled nervously rightward after them. You'll note that it's far from true now to say that the Republicans are doing much of anything that th…

I think an argument could be made that Republicans, or at least conservatives, have now become the defenders of free speech while "the left" seems not just comfortable with but intent on increasing censorship, at least certain kinds.

I will note that this isn't a complete slam dunk of an argument, I would say the left in the 60's was motivated more by the general principle of free speech, whereas I would say the right today is more motivated by self-benefit. And also I suppose it doesn't go without saying: the first amendment and the general principles of free speech / censorship are similar but distinct ideas.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#82

Post by spease »

BigChiefSmokem wrote: post #80
bluejekyll wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did. It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule. It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

Theres a good reason why we shouldn’t use direct democracy and the Founders where very clear about that.

You mean the concern that the people might elect a demagogue...?

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#83

Post by roenxi »

typon wrote: post #51
dproblem wrote: post #41

[flagged]

Unbelievable how Americans can be so brainwashed about their country's status in the world yet believe that they're completely "free"

It is easy to complain generally, but is is better to be specific about what ways you think America is not free. Americans still enjoy great freedom of speech and association, for example. No Lèse-majesté in the land of the free. There is a lot of propaganda but that isn't necessarily inconsistent with freedom.

The real issue is there is a risk that economically speaking America is less free than China. For all that what China does with intellectual property is illegal under American law, it is very free. The US would for sure like them to be a little less free with IP. America's policies over interest rates also look decidedly like the sort of thing that a centrally planned economy would try and execute; it handicaps building savings which might give China an advantage if they are more middle-class-savings-tolerant.

That is balanced by the strictly superior American rule of law, for all its warts. But America has given themselves some interesting competitive handicaps.

POSTSCRIPT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_reven... For reference, China has a ratio of 4:1 private to public income vs America with a 2.6:1 ratio. Technically, China might be running a smaller government. Or lying, it is hard to know.

POSTPOSTSCRIPT Hong Kong and Taiwan are nearly 9:1. Capitalist paradise is in Asia. Nothing lower down the list looks appealing to me.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#84

Post by sangnoir »

tekkk wrote: post #38
pjc50 wrote: post #9

This is the thing that economists have been pointing out for decades: at the country scale, allowing free trade provides productivity benefits to both sides, and restricting it affects both sides. You can't have a trade war without domestic casualties. What's crazier is that the strategy of economically integrating China with the world was a Rebublican economic-liberal one to start with. The plan was to make the rest…

Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering. So it's not very symmetric free trade with China, therefore giving some justification for this silly trade war. It's understandable though from China's perspective, that they aren't willing to give up important strategic sectors like social media or internet se…

> Well sure American and other companies have tried to gain market share in China, but China has effectively stifled a lot of foreign competitors from entering.

"National Interest" is the key phrase, and the US has similar protective barriers in key industries. Food security is one such area that the US protects, and to that end, it provides a lot of agricultural subsidies preventing a lot of foreign farmers from entering the American market. The pearl-clutching when China does the same in their national interest is lacking in self-awareness.

The US agricultural subsidies have interesting first- and second-order effects (cheap corn syrup, obesity and corporate farm consolidation) - but I digress.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#85

Post by wil421 »

danaris wrote: post #55
wil421 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget the Republican and Democratic parties kinda did a flip. I’m not sure if Nixon’s 1960s Republican party was the same as it is today. It was certainly starting to head the way it is today in the 1960s.

The Republican and Democratic parties did a flip around the turn of the 20th century. What's happened since the 1960s is more that the Republican party has been charging madly off into the far right (and, in some cases, simply into looney-land), while the Democratic party has shuffled nervously rightward after them. You'll note that it's far from true now to say that the Republicans are doing much of anything that th…

>So, sometime between the 1860s and 1936, the (Democratic) party of small government became the party of big government, and the (Republican) party of big government became rhetorically committed to curbing federal power. How did this switch happen?

>Eric Rauchway, professor of American history at the University of California, Davis, pins the transition to the turn of the 20th century, when a highly influential Democrat named William Jennings Bryan blurred party lines by emphasizing the government's role in ensuring social justice through expansions of federal power — traditionally, a Republican stance.

The article[1] goes on the state both parties started changing stances to try and win the new Western states.

[1]https://www.livescience.com/34241-democratic-republican-part...

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#86

Post by mistermann »

geogra4 wrote: post #26
seren wrote: post #19

I believe this not only affecting the US. I still have not quite understood the deal around ARM, that will stop cooperating with Huawei. This is a UK based company, owned by a Japanese conglomerate, Softbank, but they were still affected because they have a development center in Texas. The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ba…

I think your last paragraph is very much missed by trump and his team.

I'm curious what your thinking is behind this. Ok, maybe you're a believer in the Trump's an idiot meme, fine, but do you actually think not a single person on Trump's trade team understands that trade wars are a high risk undertaking, that it might not be a complete cakewalk?

Take Robert Lighthizer for example:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/22/china-japan-lighth...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/18/watch-robert-lighthizer-test...

I wouldn't for a moment think he doesn't understand the risks involved, so I would be very interested to know what your thinking is...perhaps you're aware of something I'm not?

EDIT: I find the pattern of pattern of downvoting on political topics increasingly disappointing. The specific point of contention here is now whether this trade war strategy will turn out to be a wise move, or could have been executed in a more intelligent manner (I personally hold no certainty on either), it is whether:

"The logical conclusion would be that if you are a global company and want to keep selling to China (or to whoever will get a trade ban or sanction), you should not incorporate any US tech, or have US development teams. This seems to be quite counterproductive from the US point of view, it means that investing in the US expose you to additional risks. "

...is very much missed by trump and his team.

From a "pedantically" logical perspective, I would interpret a downvote as a belief that no one on Trump's team is able to understand or has not thought of this (and many other obvious) possible negative consequences.

More likely I suspect I am reading way too much meaning into downvotes and the actual sentiment is something more casual along the lines of "you're just wrong", but the level of discourse, partisanship and epistemic humility on such topics, often accompanied by an air of intellectual superiority, seems to me like far less than what HN is capable of if we were able to set aside our understandable frustrations. If we can't discuss these topics in a non-tribal, evidence-based manner, then how does one hold the belief that the general public "should" do so? I should also note that I'm far from guilt-free on this matter, but I have been making a sincere effort to be more consistently objective in such discussions, and I would hope that is reflected in my words, provided one is able to set aside our differences in opinions.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#87

Post by adventured »

ohlookabird wrote: post #45
goodside wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Domestic steel and coal production, which is why Trump is uniquely popular in the rural areas surrounding Pittsburgh.

I am not so sure about that. These are graphs for steel production in the US: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/steel-production Looking at 5 years or more there doesn't seem to be such big increase in steel production. And coal is in decline: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-produc... Also I read quite a few articles over the last year about closing down of coal mines, mainly in PA and…

The US steel industry is in better economic shape now than it has been in decades.

Nucor is nearly worth more than ArcelorMittal and earned more last quarter than ArcelorMittal did. Unthinkable just a few years ago.

Nucor's sales jumped from $16b to $25b in two years up through fiscal 2018. Net income jumped from $80m in 2015, to $2.3 billion in 2018 (operating income went from $654m to $3.3b).

US Steel Corporation saw its sales jump from $10b to $14b over two years through 2018, net income jumped from negative $1.6b in 2015 to positive $1.1b (operating income went from -$525m to +$950m over that time).

The US steel industry has been a disaster for decades. Now it's one of the strongest in the world financially. China's steel companies are hemorrhaging and require constant state support stimulus by comparison.

We can either have a healthy, strong domestic steel industry, or we can do nothing and watch China put it into the ground through dumping and massive state subsidies. I don't agree with any state protectionism. So long as China gets away with what they've been doing for decades in industries like steel, I agree with protecting important domestic industries. Steel companies (whether they're in the US or elsewhere) are directly competing with the Chinese state, the US state should intervene given the playing field is very uneven.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#89

Post by onemoresoop »

BigChiefSmokem wrote: post #80
bluejekyll wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America did not elect this administration by a majority of the popular vote. The electoral college did. It’s an artifact of the original founding of the country where there were checks and balances put in place to deny direct democratic rule. It’s been slowly rolled back over many years, but until we get rid of the electoral college, it always has the possibility of ignoring the will of the people.

Theres a good reason why we shouldn’t use direct democracy and the Founders where very clear about that.

All these tools from the founding fathers were abused and misused.

Re: Trade War Has Damaged U.S. Chip Industry

#90

Post by sangnoir »

gambiting wrote: post #22
bhouston wrote: post #16

I am pretty sure that China is going to take a temporary hit but in the end they will emerge stronger than ever. I think China will also redouble on their efforts to be full self-sufficient in all high tech areas, even if they have to open up for a sanction relief deal, their population will so favor local competitors, that it won't matter. China's rise will continue and dominant until their demographic bubble bursts…

Yes, I'm curious what might happen if China gets to a level where they have the best tech, but are not interested in sharing it.

Going by history[1], I'd guess that the "respect for IP" by the west might get a bit squishy, and become sacrosanct in China.

1. Hollywood's current stance on IP has reversed from when it was founded and actively undermining Edison's cinematography IP. Same goes for aircraft engineering in France in light of the Wright brothers patent war, and the inchoate American industry vs British IP.

Post reply on HN