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Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

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Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#31

Post by barry-cotter »

enraged_camel wrote: post #28
rasz wrote: post #16

If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term, even in the face of daily car fires.

I take it you are not familiar with the Arab Spring protests?

The failed democratic revolutions that lead to massive loss of life in the countries where they fizzled out (Egypt), hundreds of thousands of deaths where the US supported them (Syria, Libya) and one democratic transition (Tunisia)? The Arab Spring was, in toto, a disaster. If you want to discourage revolutions by all means publicise it.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#32

Post by seanmcdirmid »

csomar wrote: post #25
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…

> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation…

> From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan.

Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways.

The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used to, it doesn't do that much anymore).

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#33

Post by JumpCrisscross »

DeonPenny wrote: post #30
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…

CCP military is already in the city. They have been building bases in the city since before 2014

> CCP military is already in the city

Rolling in the military as in deploying it against peaceful protesters. A second Tiananmen Square. They have the forces but are constrained in projecting them.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#34

Post by phyalow »

DeonPenny wrote: post #30
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…

CCP military is already in the city. They have been building bases in the city since before 2014

Indeed, the PLA's main garrison (ex. British Army) sits directly in front of Merrill Lynch's Hong Kong Tower (BAML), the irony is not lost on Hong Kongers for sure.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#35

Post by barry-cotter »

rider5 wrote: post #18
randyrand wrote: post #12

It’ll be an unfair fight of China brings troops into this.

Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute nightmare

Guerrilla warfare relies on willingness to abide by the laws of armed conflict for its effectiveness. If you’re willing to kill everyone and the rebellious population realises it you win. See Chechnya. Also, Hong Kong is a city. In cities guerrilla warfare just plain doesn’t work. If it did the Israelis would not have been able to occupy the Gaza Strip and West Bank for decades. This without the willingness to disregard international law that harvesting Falun Gong organs or keeping millions in concentration camps in Xinjiang shows the CCP very obviously has.

Guerrilla warfare only works against weak states or strong ones that will follow international law. The British won the Boer war. The PLA has more men and Hong Kong is a lot smaller than South Africa or even just the Orange after State. Hong Kong cannot win a guerrilla war.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#36

Post by csomar »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32
csomar wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation…

> From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways. The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used t…

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C...

Taiwan existed because of the US. Basically, the other side of the civil war got defeated and come hiding in Taiwan behind US military. Otherwise, it'd have been invaded by China since.

It seems currently that there is no official military presence. However, there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances

I think it's enough to deter China from attacking Taiwan.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#37

Post by mc32 »

andrekandre wrote: post #22
rider5 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute nightmare

the result then basically being that they just end up destroying what they sought...

They don’t only seek to incorporate HK but also as important or moreso to quash what they see as an incompatible political system.

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#38

Post by [deleted] »

csomar wrote: post #36
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways. The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used t…

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C... Taiwan existed because of the US. Basically, the other side of the civil war got defeated and come hiding in Taiwan behind US military. Otherwise, it'd have been invaded by China since. It seems currently that there is no official military presence. However, there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances I think it's enough to deter China…

[deleted]

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#39

Post by petre »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #29
csomar wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation…

> Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong It is. But re-integration remains a goal for Beijing. If not realistically, then at least politically. The more aggressive Xi has been with Hong Kong, the more Taiwan has stiffened. Rolling tanks into Hong Kong would give Taiwan legitimate cover for being supplied weapons. For a variety of reasons, China doesn’t want that. That, in turn, gives the protesters leverage…

Taiwan is supplied with weapons. US and Taiwanese gov't officials take Xi's threats quite seriously. No need for legitimate cover.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-...

Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure

#40

Post by lyrr »

barry-cotter wrote: post #35
rider5 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute nightmare

Guerrilla warfare relies on willingness to abide by the laws of armed conflict for its effectiveness. If you’re willing to kill everyone and the rebellious population realises it you win. See Chechnya. Also, Hong Kong is a city. In cities guerrilla warfare just plain doesn’t work. If it did the Israelis would not have been able to occupy the Gaza Strip and West Bank for decades. This without the willingness to disreg…

Total BS. Irish War of Independence is a good example of guerrilla warfare beating the oppressor, and the British did not subscribe to 'laws of armed conflict' in the slightest:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_(1920)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Cork

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