It’ll be an unfair fight of China brings troops into this.
What troops? China would never use military force to suppress their citizens! Never ever!!!!!!!!
Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
21–30 of 66 posts
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#22Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#23If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term, even in the face of daily car fires.
> If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term
Peaceful protest can be judged on four goals: "(1) the extent to which the relevant outgroup (e.g., policy makers) would be influenced by the collective action (intergroup concerns), (2) the extent to which relevant third parties would be influenced by the collective action (broader societal concerns), (3) the extent to which the collective action would be successful in building an oppositional movement (intragroup concerns), and (4) the extent to which the collective action would be successful in expressing one’s values (individual concerns)" [1].
The Yellow Vest protests resulted in direct action (1) when Macron backed down on the proposed fuel-tax increase [2]. Hong Kong isn't a full democracy and Beijing is ruled by a dictator. Direct influence is thus unrealistic.
On influencing third parties (2), however, the protesters have leverage. By threatening Hong Kong's economy, they can swing the Legislative Council's tycoons [3]. International visibility, in turn, deters Beijing with the thread of sanctions and, potentially, military support (if not for Hong Kong, then Taiwan).
On building an opposition movement (3), we're witnessing a permanent political change in Hong Kong. The LC recently removed opposition candidates with minimal fanfare [4]. That will be difficult to replicate.
On (4), we again have a clear win in forging a Hong Kong identity built upon peaceful democratic solidarity. That shows brightly against Beijing's violent and autocratic alternative. (And has influence outside Hong Kong [5].)
[1] http://eprints.qut.edu.au/3815/1/3815.pdf
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/french-go...
[3] https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/as-hong-kong-erupted-ov...
[4] https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3013437...
[5] https://www.ft.com/content/2feba0a6-8eba-11e9-a24d-b42f641ec...
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wouldn’t guerilla warfare in the alleys and tight buildings be an absolute nightmare
the result then basically being that they just end up destroying what they sought...
> they just end up destroying what they sought
Cities are people, not buildings. This underlines the Swiss defense strategy, for instance [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Redoubt_%28Switzerlan...
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#25To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically "disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of intelligence Beijing has collected over these last few days and what sort of operations they have in mind. The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand.
> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…
> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan.
From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong.
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#26If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term, even in the face of daily car fires.
At least until the next election. Where the next guy will make a ton of promises to fix things and then once the shine of a new politician wears off and the lack of actual results become obvious, it’s time for a new politician to fix things! I also wouldn’t use France for an analogy here. They protest over literally everything. The politicians there must learn quickly how to ignore them. This doesn’t happened often i…
I also wouldn’t use France for an analogy here. They protest over literally everything. The politicians there must learn quickly how to ignore them.
Sounds like some sites like YouTube should take a look at how politicians in France cope with protesters.
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#27If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term, even in the face of daily car fires.
No you can't. However strong the dictatorship is. Hong Kong protest is 2million out of 7million. If you had the same proportions in France, you'd have 20millions.
At 20m in France, the president will probably resign in 2-3 days. If not from the street pressure, then from his allies pressure.
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#28If Yellow Vests movement taught us anything, is that you can ignore protests long term, even in the face of daily car fires.
I take it you are not familiar with the Arab Spring protests?
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…
> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation…
> Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong
It is. But re-integration remains a goal for Beijing. If not realistically, then at least politically.
The more aggressive Xi has been with Hong Kong, the more Taiwan has stiffened. Rolling tanks into Hong Kong would give Taiwan legitimate cover for being supplied weapons. For a variety of reasons, China doesn’t want that. That, in turn, gives the protesters leverage.
Re: Hong Kong Protesters Keep Up the Pressure
#30To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically "disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of intelligence Beijing has collected over these last few days and what sort of operations they have in mind. The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand.
> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went o…
CCP military is already in the city. They have been building bases in the city since before 2014