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The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

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Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#191

Post by rossdavidh »

ineedasername wrote: post #64

I'm not sure the author's suggestion that potential students be diverted to trades/coding bootcampts etc., will solve too much, and instead may simply shift the problem into those trade industries as well. Somewhere in the ballpark of 2,000,000 students earn a bachelors degree each year. Let's say 25% of students should be diverted into trade schools instead. That will mean an additional 500,000 student per year ente…

1) if it does turn out to be true that we need "fewer workers", that's great, we just move to a 30-hour work week (or 20, or whatever). We once had 6-day work weeks, or sometimes even 7, and it was productivity gains that allowed us to move to 5. We can move again.

2) But, I'm not sure it's even true. We mostly got to where we are by having all the manufacturing done in 3rd world countries for pennies. It's not that it doesn't take a lot of hours, it's just that we pay little for it. Which is great, if you're one of those who has a job, but bad in lots of other ways.

3) Regarding automation, it should be noted that the manufacturing did not, by and large, go to the countries with the best robots, or even the most reliable electricity for automation. It went to where the environmental, health, and safety laws were laxest, and the cost of labor was lowest. This suggests that there is still plenty of labor that needs doing, we just are run by an elite that doesn't want to pay for it.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#192

Post by fizzbuzz123 »

jseliger wrote: post #138
ineedasername wrote: post #64

I'm not sure the author's suggestion that potential students be diverted to trades/coding bootcampts etc., will solve too much, and instead may simply shift the problem into those trade industries as well. Somewhere in the ballpark of 2,000,000 students earn a bachelors degree each year. Let's say 25% of students should be diverted into trade schools instead. That will mean an additional 500,000 student per year ente…

There are two books that cover this subject well: The Case Against Education : https://jakeseliger.com/2018/03/12/the-case-against-educatio... , which argues that most "education" is really signaling, not human capital acquisition, and Paying for the Party : https://jakeseliger.com/2014/04/27/paying-for-the-party-eliz... , which argues that many schools have evolved some substantive majors and some non-substantive ma…

Tell that to the Billionaire class who have taken virtually all the productivity gains of the past 50 years for themselves. Keynes was right, we should be living in luxury right now working 15 hour weeks but instead we have a handful of Uber Wealthy people gorging themselves.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#193

Post by fizzbuzz123 »

uoaei wrote: post #159
jseliger wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two books that cover this subject well: The Case Against Education : https://jakeseliger.com/2018/03/12/the-case-against-educatio... , which argues that most "education" is really signaling, not human capital acquisition, and Paying for the Party : https://jakeseliger.com/2014/04/27/paying-for-the-party-eliz... , which argues that many schools have evolved some substantive majors and some non-substantive ma…

It behooves one to read the comment thread replying to Dr. Krugman's post. Many arguments emphasizing the disparity between real output vs. employment in manufacturing. Paul Krugman is wrong surprisingly often about these sorts of things. He cherry-picks one graph and says that this graph, combined with the opinions of cherry-picked esteemed colleagues, supports his conclusion, when ample evidence exists and is provi…

Oh dang guys the comment section dunked on a Nobel Winning Economist. Lol

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#194

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

alexhutcheson wrote: post #168
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying new is basically a fools game now. Take note of vehicles with proven longevity and snatch them up when the depreciation makes them affordable.

With the rate at which electronic safety features are advancing, I think the advantages of buying used have fallen a bit. A new base-model Corolla currently has more electronic safety features than a high-trim 3-4 year old Avalon or Lexus. That's a recent phenomenon, though, and it might be a temporary condition if the rate of improvement of those systems slows down.

How did everybody manage to convince themselves that they need these expensive add-ons? You need seatbelts, airbags, and impact absorption. That was perfected 20 years ago. Everything else is a luxury not needed for driving.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#196

Post by entropea »

Atheros wrote: post #160
0xffff2 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that for my most recent vehicle purchase (paid cash, no loan) the dealer left their own anti-theft device installed. From what I could gather online, they use them for anti-theft on the lot and then can try to upsell you on a service that uses the same hardware during the sale. It's wired directly into the ignition system. Despite having a computer engineering degree and enough experience to be reasonably conf…

If you're smart and capable enough to reverse engineer the device, there's a 95% chance you're smart and capable enough to have a job that pays enough to not need ultra high-interest car loans.

I don't think that's true. There are a lot of smart people in not very good jobs who can't break through, or people who have self learned skills in some fields but not enough to get a job that's paying to do that. I could do this easily, but I'm stuck in a $52k/year IT job in Seattle trying to move up.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#197

Post by mangotrees »

mars4rp wrote: post #155
ineedasername wrote: post #64

I'm not sure the author's suggestion that potential students be diverted to trades/coding bootcampts etc., will solve too much, and instead may simply shift the problem into those trade industries as well. Somewhere in the ballpark of 2,000,000 students earn a bachelors degree each year. Let's say 25% of students should be diverted into trade schools instead. That will mean an additional 500,000 student per year ente…

That is not so bad to depress some of those wages, my plumber is making $2k/Day. I don't know too many people making that kind of money even in tech, let alone other disciplines!

I believe you're confusing top-line revenues and profits available for the tradesman. As it stands, you're asserting that your plumber makes approximately 14x the average plumber in America, and 10x the average plumber in San Francisco. This is unlikely to be correct.

In a similar vein, Apple takes in over $2,000,000 of revenue per employee, but Genius Bar employees are not taking that amount home. I mention this solely because it uses the same reasoning evident in your initial claims.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#198

Post by burfog »

chrisco255 wrote: post #76
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this were 10yr ago I'd agree. The 80s gave us computers. The 90s gave us good simulation software and the engineers used that to build us reliable cars. The early 2000s gave us plastic interior and exterior trim that didn't rattle and fall apart in short order. Since then we've tacked more gears onto automatic transmissions, hybrids have become more mainstream, sedans and wagons have been replaced with small SUVs…

Gas mileage is better, backup cams are standard (and required), the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11 years (up from 8 years in the 90s), so they are more reliable and last longer, better airbags (side curtains are standard nowadays), better anti-corrosion technology, adaptive cruise control, lane assist, auto parallel parking, partial autopilot, bluetooth standard, etc.

I disagree on a few of those.

The backup cams affect my night vision. When I back out of a parking space at night, I'm hit with the glare. I need my vision to drive!

Humans adapt to adaptive cruise control, lane assist, auto parallel parking, partial autopilot, and any other safety feature. So we get more texting while driving and other dangerous behavior. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#199

Post by AimForTheBushes »

jogjayr wrote: post #55
ikeyany wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For starters, H1Bs are cheaper to hire. Also, they're more desperate to stay in the US, so they won't demand too much and won't walk away from poor conditions. That also fixes with the population issue since middle class Americans can't really afford to have kids.

> For starters, H1Bs are cheaper to hire Citation needed, because this is a sweepingly broad statement. To hire an H1B you need to pay the prevailing wage, usually at least $60k, which is more than an entry-level non-STEM college grad is going to be paid outside the Bay Area (it should still be increased to something like $90-95k IMO but that's a different issue). In addition to that, there are thousands of dollars i…

In my anecdotal experience, the business axes a position and downgrades responsibilities to a lower title. So what a Sr. DBA did before would go to a regular DBA or even a Jr. DBA. It doesn't matter what the prevailing wage for a title is when responsibilities are loosely coupled.

I think the best way to counter the abuse is to increase the premium ($100k+) and allow H1Bs to move between companies.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#200

Post by mars4rp »

mangotrees wrote: post #197
mars4rp wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not so bad to depress some of those wages, my plumber is making $2k/Day. I don't know too many people making that kind of money even in tech, let alone other disciplines!

I believe you're confusing top-line revenues and profits available for the tradesman. As it stands, you're asserting that your plumber makes approximately 14x the average plumber in America, and 10x the average plumber in San Francisco. This is unlikely to be correct. In a similar vein, Apple takes in over $2,000,000 of revenue per employee, but Genius Bar employees are not taking that amount home. I mention this sol…

I kind of agree with your point, but you really think an average licensed plumber in SF makes $200/day???
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