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The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

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Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#161

Post by alexhutcheson »

howard941 wrote: post #21
robohoe wrote: post #2

One thing that I noticed in this article and charts was the unprecedented growth of auto loans. They too have skyrocketed. That seems like another "bubble" waiting to happen.

The problem is getting worse. It used to be hard to get 5 year loans for new cars. 8 year loans are pretty common. With the vehicle failing to reach the loan's end of life these new loans roll in the old loan's deficiency until someone defaults. A still relevant earlier discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14476381

Is it common for modern used cars to not last 8 years? I know lots of people driving cars that are 10-15 years old at this point.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#162

Post by leetcrew »

thrower123 wrote: post #79
chrisco255 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas mileage is better, backup cams are standard (and required), the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11 years (up from 8 years in the 90s), so they are more reliable and last longer, better airbags (side curtains are standard nowadays), better anti-corrosion technology, adaptive cruise control, lane assist, auto parallel parking, partial autopilot, bluetooth standard, etc.

Gas mileage is a very marginal improvement in any of the vehicles I'm interested in, on the order of 16 mpg then to maybe 20, now. Bodywork is plastic or aluminum, so it is less repairable, but there's the anti-corrosion factor. Everything else listed I would want to actively avoid in my next vehicle.

> Gas mileage is a very marginal improvement in any of the vehicles I'm interested in, on the order of 16 mpg then to maybe 20, now.

this says more about the vehicles you're interested in than the overall trend in vehicle efficiency. I get ~34mpg out of my hot hatch with a heavy right foot.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#163

Post by Calloutman »

epicureanideal wrote: post #131
rotskoff wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably worthwhile to think about scale in this context: There are only 85000 H-1B visas issued each year by the US; 20k of those are reserved for people with advanced degrees [1]. Given that there are an estimated 3.87 million software developers working in the USA [2], this seems unlikely to be the root cause of the inability of some graduates to find entry level software jobs. 1. https://www.uscis.gov/workin…

But how long are those visas good for? If it's multiple years, then we really need to count how many active H1Bs there are, not the number issued yearly. I just Googled and found this article: https://qz.com/949589/the-h-1b-visa-cap-tells-you-very-littl... ... which indicates that about 500,000 H1B visas are currently valid. If those were to all go to tech workers, that would be about 1/7 of all software developers,…

There are a lot more technical jobs that require a degree than 3m software developers. There are dozens of different types of engineering and scientific domains apart from software development.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#164

Post by alexhutcheson »

robohoe wrote: post #66
mdorazio wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some quick numbers here. Inflation over the last 20 years was about 54%, so I would expect an apples-to-apples vehicle to cost that much more today than it did in 1999. If you look at the CPI-based numbers for cars from 2000 to 2019, in real dollars it's barely gone up [1]. I think what you're seeing is that the cars getting advertised, and more specifically the cars that you want are more expensive than they used to…

Except it's hard to find base model cars anywhere.

The Costco Auto Program[1] can be good for that.

[1] https://www.costcoauto.com

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#166

Post by 7373737373 »

rotskoff wrote: post #115
roel_v wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it possible that 2.5% of the workforce is a programmer? One out of every 40 people?

It's a good question: you can see a fairly granular breakdown of the workforce by industry [here]( https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm ). There are about 5.1 million people working in "Computer and mathematical occupations", the majority of whom are developers.

I created a tree map out of it: https://void4.github.io/allgermans/americans.html

Previously, one with all Germans: https://void4.github.io/allgermans/Germany.html

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#167

Post by war1025 »

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #151
war1025 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That all seems pretty true. People have spent that past decade telling me that I'm going to be less well off than my parents, though. So I guess my opinion is that it's best to just accept it and adjust your lifestyle accordingly. We still live like kings compared to most of human history. Also, the social safety net in the US isn't great, but it definitely exists. You can be a pretty big screw up and still have a ro…

>People have spent that past decade telling me that I'm going to be less well off than my parents, though. So I guess my opinion is that it's best to just accept it and adjust your lifestyle accordingly. If I told you I was going to beat you up and steal your money every night, it doesn't mean you should just smile and accept it as inevitable, even if that's really my plan. >We still live like kings compared to most…

> If I told you I was going to beat you up and steal your money every night, it doesn't mean you should just smile and accept it as inevitable, even if that's really my plan

I didn't say smile and accept it. I said "adjust your lifestyle". The rules changed, so how you play needs to change with it.

If you tell me you're going to beat me up and take my money every time you see me, I'm going to make sure we don't cross paths.

My point is that there is no reason to be surprised at what is happening because people have been telling us that is what will happen.

The fact is, there are a bunch of people who are in effect living a life of "He told me he'd beat me up and take my money every day, and sure enough every time I see him, he beats me up and takes my money, but maybe tomorrow he won't!"

When someone shows you their cards, take advantage of it, is all I'm saying.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#168

Post by alexhutcheson »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #54
thrower123 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the last twenty years, new vehicle prices have doubled. My eyes just about roll out of my head when I see what the sticker price is for a new truck or minivan. I assume people must be leasing more than they used to, because I can't see any other way to get the payment down into a palatable $500/month range.

Buying new is basically a fools game now. Take note of vehicles with proven longevity and snatch them up when the depreciation makes them affordable.

With the rate at which electronic safety features are advancing, I think the advantages of buying used have fallen a bit. A new base-model Corolla currently has more electronic safety features than a high-trim 3-4 year old Avalon or Lexus. That's a recent phenomenon, though, and it might be a temporary condition if the rate of improvement of those systems slows down.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#169

Post by fzeroracer »

mcguire wrote: post #153
leakybit wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the entry level market for devs is very saturated.

If they're making more than any other job you can get with 3-6 mos. of training, the market is not saturated.

That's a fallacious argument though, because at the lower end tech jobs pay more than other careers but result in you being exploited by corporations looking to drive wages down.

When I graduated, there were companies offering me 30-40k a year in cities like Seattle. I have friends that could tell you the same story, some who took the opportunity because of the entry level market being saturated.

Bootcamp graduates are often placed in incredibly exploitative contracting environments (often in companies that also underpay, abuse and threaten H1Bs) which are farmed out to larger companies looking to get work done cheap. Though this has just been my personal experience and that of my friends. They leverage desperation.

Re: The student loan crisis is really an underemployment catastrophe

#170

Post by dragontamer »

mikeash wrote: post #146
dragontamer wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the stock-market has a bid-ask spread. A perfectly efficient market will push the bids higher and the asks lower. Stocks for example only have a spread of a couple of pennies. As the markets get less and less efficient, you become more reliant on middle-men to perform transactions. In the dark ages, people would pay 1-pound of gold for 1-pound of salt. In the case of modern society: bonds (and other derivatives)…

So, by definition, 110% of “fair market value” is fair if someone buys at that price? Doesn’t that mean the scare-quoted “fair market value” isn’t?

In my eyes, "fair market value" is roughly (bid_price + ask_price) / 2. In effect, "fair market value" is a survey-result, based on how much buyers are bidding and how much sellers are asking.

80% to 110% isn't a perfect split between the buyer and seller, but its "within expectations".

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