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China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

reuters.com

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Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#91

Post by geowwy »

Terr_ wrote: post #76
geowwy wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely won't be parking their navy off the west coast. They have nothing to gain and the cost will be huge. China is being aggressive in the South China Sea because they're insecure about the US navy being so close. If things escalate then the US navy can start a blockade and stop virtually all trade between China and the outside world. China wants to get control of the surrounding seas so its shipping route…

> west coast [...] South China Sea Or to use Occam's Razor: There's a greater density of assets to control, nearer at hand.

Yep that's correct. And the main asset that navies protect are trade routes. So you can see that they would want to protect the South China Sea since that's their gateway to the world. But the West Coast really only connects to America, who wouldn't trade with them anyway if they took over the West Coast. So it would be totally counter-productive to send ships there.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#92

Post by hodgesrm »

vondur wrote: post #9

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. In theory, we just have to make more advanced weapon technology available to some our allies in the region. I'd support helping India modernize their military with equipment, training and joint exercises.

> The US still has a huge Navy compared to China

At this point the most likely result of Sino-American naval conflict would be a bloody stalemate. Missiles really change the equation for surface ships as the article correctly points out. I would not like to be on a US carrier anywhere near the Chinese coast in the event of a war. They are likely to end up like the Prince of Wales and Repulse. [1]

On the other hand it does not seem likely that the Chinese fleet could deal with US submarines, so it's not clear how they could protect their own shipping.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_Prince_of_Wales_and...

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#93

Post by AlexCoventry »

stcredzero wrote: post #88
lurquer wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The air support for the US Navy, on the other hand, is slightly better than the Royal Air Force of 1890. And, the ICBMs, satellites, and submarines are a tad bit more sophisticated. Other than that, though, your analysis is spot on. (Well, to be fair, the US Navy has made some remarkable inroads with the whole scurvey thing...)

I hope we don't also forget how we beat scurvy, then have to rediscover it.

I hear vitamins cause autism in sailors.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#94

Post by AlexCoventry »

drenvuk wrote: post #2

Great. I doubt this is the beginning of WW3 but considering what's happening with Vietnam and Myanmar I'd bet that we'll have a new hegemony that Taiwan falls under if nothing changes in the next 5 years or so. Does anyone have any books on the economics of war/war of economics and such? I'm wondering where else this could go.

Sort of tangential, but Silent Invasion is about PRC soft-power influence on Australian politics.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#95

Post by Sabinus »

chriselles wrote: post #64
kuzehanka wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Retribution with what? If the carriers are taken out the US has no way to project any kind of meaningful force in that region. Any scenario (unlikely as it may be) that involves china successfully destroying 2 US carriers would also involve their confidence in being able to destroy the rest in their coastal region.

If there is clear attribution for the sinking of a US carrier the offenders would get glassed with a Trident D5.

If there is clear attribution for the nuking of a country, the offenders will be glassed by multiple warheads. Nukes aren't ever a sane response to escalating traditional tensions.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#96

Post by gonyea »

AYBABTME wrote: post #72
est31 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt they'll stop at their home waters. What they consider home waters will just move more and more towards the US west coast. Right now the conflict is closer to them than it is to the USA but things may change rapidly.

Doesn't seem likely to me if history is anything. China doesn't seem interested in ruling over its neighbours, as long as they're friendly. I'm no expert but for all I've read on its history, it seems to traditionally be interested in commerce and be content with that.

China has a long history of imperialism. They even tried attacking Vietnam after its war with the US and failed.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#97

Post by Ultramanoid »

Ultramanoid wrote: post #82
geowwy wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They definitely won't be parking their navy off the west coast. They have nothing to gain and the cost will be huge. China is being aggressive in the South China Sea because they're insecure about the US navy being so close. If things escalate then the US navy can start a blockade and stop virtually all trade between China and the outside world. China wants to get control of the surrounding seas so its shipping route…

China can be many things, 'insecure' is not one of them. Maybe try 'patient'. Edit : From a Chinese perspective, the Pax Americana has been a blip in history.

Edit : Downvotes are fine, but would like to hear the arguments against the facts of the region.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#98

Post by kodz4 »

ilaksh wrote: post #86
kodz4 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Europe has figured out how to redirect all that energy into football so other paradigms are possible. Before that discovery they spent most of history killing each other every 3 months or so.

I'm glad you brought Europe up. Because I think that maybe I didn't quite make my ultimate point. Its true that Europeans used to fight each other much more. That's also true of most areas of the planet. I think that for the main part you have Europeans working together now under NATO. I believe that actually the most core reason for NATO is common genetic and ethnic heritage. In fact, to me the major global factions…

We are a at new point, compared to those in the past thanks to the level of interconnectedness.

Its very hard to actually see how much things are connected until things break down and the connections reveal themselves.

Applying deadly force in such a context is much more unpredictable than in the past. Even though we have enough examples of what happens (Read Niall Fergusons the Square and the Tower) the scale of interconnectedness and interdependencies as massive.

Think of the 2008 financial crisis, nobody cared about the banks, they even let two fail but the chain reaction it set off scared the shit out of everyone. Finance Ministers and Federal Banks in ever corner of the world across all kinds of difference were all of a sudden guaranteeing matching safegaurds and stimulus packages. From Russia to India to China. Same story will repeat with any kind military conflict between say US and Mexico, the actual interdepedencies will reveal themselves beyond the legacy reasons for grouping such as language, culture etc. It's a delusion that the connections can be severed. And sooner or later people learn that the hard way. It's good for health in the long run.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#99

Post by staunch »

Balero wrote: post #11
staunch wrote: post #8

What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no benign explanation. China has long had enough conventional power to defend itself and more than enough nuclear weapons to hold up its side of MAD. It really just looks a lot like the king of China is preparing to start a war. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst case he's planning to take all of As…

"No one can sleep well until the U.S. massively revamps its nuclear triad and either Japan or Europe create their own highly independent nuclear response capability. The future of humanity is currently relying on a single point of failure and it may already be too late." Both the UK and France have a completely independent nuclear response. "What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's…

> Both the UK and France have a completely independent nuclear response.

Small nuclear arsenals that are not highly redundant. They do not have MAD-level nuclear forces.

> None of these countries have kings.

This is just semantics, they do have kings in all but name.

> Russia is a waning power...

They have enough tactical nukes to take out every major military force in Europe and enough conventional forces to clean up what's left.

> China, whilst growing fast, does not have the capability to project power...

They don't have to project power at all. They just have to disarm the militaries of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which are all on their doorstep.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#100

Post by NotSammyHagar »

Ultramanoid wrote: post #97
Ultramanoid wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China can be many things, 'insecure' is not one of them. Maybe try 'patient'. Edit : From a Chinese perspective, the Pax Americana has been a blip in history.

Edit : Downvotes are fine, but would like to hear the arguments against the facts of the region.

China hasn't been a single govt or people, they have had very different ones over time, of course many different regional languages over time before the 20th centry. They aren't one single culture than went x thousand years. Of course they do have an ancient and proud culture with many achievements and led the world at various times but they weren't just one group. Just like there were dozens maybe 100s of different political entities and countries and philosophies going from Greeks to Rome to modern America and European countries. There wasn't one continuous 'people' for more than 2k years there either.
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