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China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

reuters.com

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Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#81

Post by lurquer »

stcredzero wrote: post #20
i_am_proteus wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bear in mind, though, that the US Navy operates in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean and occasionally Arctic. The US Navy often operates far from US naval port facilities. The Chinese fleet is concentrated almost entirely in the Western Pacific, near its naval ports.

The US faces many of the logistic and economic challenges the British faced when they ruled the world's oceans.

The air support for the US Navy, on the other hand, is slightly better than the Royal Air Force of 1890. And, the ICBMs, satellites, and submarines are a tad bit more sophisticated. Other than that, though, your analysis is spot on. (Well, to be fair, the US Navy has made some remarkable inroads with the whole scurvey thing...)

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#82

Post by Ultramanoid »

geowwy wrote: post #74
est31 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt they'll stop at their home waters. What they consider home waters will just move more and more towards the US west coast. Right now the conflict is closer to them than it is to the USA but things may change rapidly.

They definitely won't be parking their navy off the west coast. They have nothing to gain and the cost will be huge. China is being aggressive in the South China Sea because they're insecure about the US navy being so close. If things escalate then the US navy can start a blockade and stop virtually all trade between China and the outside world. China wants to get control of the surrounding seas so its shipping route…

China can be many things, 'insecure' is not one of them. Maybe try 'patient'.

Edit : From a Chinese perspective, the Pax Americana has been a blip in history.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#83

Post by dflock »

expressrunning wrote: post #56
dflock wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you owe the bank $10k, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $10b, you own the bank. Sanctions against China would be fairly painful for the rest of the world, too.

Sanctions against Russia didn't have much impacts on European/US consumers. Tariffs against China didn't have much impacts on European/US consumers. You get the idea.

> Sanctions against Russia didn't have much impacts on European/US consumers.

Russia isn't an export/manufacturing powerhouse, unlike China. The one thing that Russia does export that EU consumers are about - oil & gas - isn't subject to sanctions.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#84

Post by Bendingo »

expressrunning wrote: post #39
ilaksh wrote: post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

That’s not true. Economic sanctions is the ultimate weapon these days. Look at Ukraine and Russia. Russia is now in its 5th year of sanction from EU and US and others. As a result, a withering economy and massive population outflow for Russia. Also look at the effects of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Both are collapsing. Imagine the effects of sanction on an economy as big as China.

> a withering economy [...] for Russia

The Russian economy is growing, not withering: "Although economic sanctions tightened, [...] Russian economy expanded at a 1.6 percent pace in the year just ended," - [1] (or [2] if you think rt.com is fake news).

> massive population outflow for Russia

It is true that Russia population is decreasing, although Poland, Germany, Hungary, Japan etc are decreasing even more [3]. It's hyperbolic to describe this as "massive".

[1] - https://www.rt.com/business/448357-russian-economy-grows-san...

[2] - http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/01/08/da...

[3] - https://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=24

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#85

Post by mr_toad »

Balero wrote: post #11
staunch wrote: post #8

What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's no benign explanation. China has long had enough conventional power to defend itself and more than enough nuclear weapons to hold up its side of MAD. It really just looks a lot like the king of China is preparing to start a war. It seems like in the best case he is preparing to take Taiwan and in the worst case he's planning to take all of As…

"No one can sleep well until the U.S. massively revamps its nuclear triad and either Japan or Europe create their own highly independent nuclear response capability. The future of humanity is currently relying on a single point of failure and it may already be too late." Both the UK and France have a completely independent nuclear response. "What is so worrying about China's massive military build up is that there's…

A simpler explanation for the Chinese military build-up might be the same as the explanation for the USAs disproportionate military spending - a military/industrial complex that furthers the careers of the rich and powerful.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#86

Post by ilaksh »

kodz4 wrote: post #22
ilaksh wrote: post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

Well Europe has figured out how to redirect all that energy into football so other paradigms are possible. Before that discovery they spent most of history killing each other every 3 months or so.

I'm glad you brought Europe up. Because I think that maybe I didn't quite make my ultimate point.

Its true that Europeans used to fight each other much more. That's also true of most areas of the planet.

I think that for the main part you have Europeans working together now under NATO.

I believe that actually the most core reason for NATO is common genetic and ethnic heritage. In fact, to me the major global factions are essentially just ancient tribal disputes write large.

Now, this may make sense if you have a sort of 19th century Social Darwinistic pre-gentic-science eugenic worldview where human life has little value to you and each group is essentially an ant colony battling it out so that the greatest "subspecies" may procreate.

But we understand now that humans are humans. We have instantaneous global communications with increasingly effective translation systems. Our technology provides a relative abundance for much of the population.

Would it make sense for this paradigm of deadly force to apply to the people who live on your block? No, of course not. What about within your city? No. What about between the United States and Canada? It seems unlikely.

But if I bring up the example of the United States and Mexico? The idea that there might be mass killing to resolve conflicts would be much more palatable for many people unfortunately. And I think it comes down to ethnic and cultural differences. In other words, they have different family histories, look different, speak a different language.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#87

Post by ilaksh »

darawk wrote: post #21
ilaksh wrote: post #17

I guess it's probably not very realistic but to me the only way to get to real security that you can count on to last is to change the whole paradigm. I mean the basic premise is that the bottom line for control is deadly force. Maybe there really is no alternative but I think it's worth mentioning that as long is that is the operating mode, there is no real security for human life. You can certainly have extended pe…

You can't change that paradigm. Everything ultimately cashes out in force, unless you want to invent a new universe with new physics or something.

But not _everything_. Is your city going to invade a neighboring city if it decides it wants a better property tax base?

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#88

Post by stcredzero »

lurquer wrote: post #81
stcredzero wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US faces many of the logistic and economic challenges the British faced when they ruled the world's oceans.

The air support for the US Navy, on the other hand, is slightly better than the Royal Air Force of 1890. And, the ICBMs, satellites, and submarines are a tad bit more sophisticated. Other than that, though, your analysis is spot on. (Well, to be fair, the US Navy has made some remarkable inroads with the whole scurvey thing...)

I hope we don't also forget how we beat scurvy, then have to rediscover it.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#89

Post by stcredzero »

expressrunning wrote: post #35
stcredzero wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US still has a huge Navy compared to China, and far more allies in the region than China does. This might well change if China takes back Taiwan. If that happens, China could engineer a situation where it's better for the local powers to cozy up to China, than to take the side of the distant US. Even though the US, as a distant hegemon, is the better option, the US might not have the power to keep China at bay an…

Taiwan Can Win a War With China “One of the central hurdles facing the offensive is surprise. The PLA simply will not have it. The invasion will happen in April or October. Because of the challenges posed by the strait’s weather, a transport fleet can only make it across the strait in one of these two four-week windows.“ “There are only 13 beaches on Taiwan’s western coast that the PLA could possibly land at. Each of…

There is a serious proposal for the Mainland Chinese to unilaterally build a civilian tunnel to Taiwan. If the Taiwanese bomb it, the Chinese have a pretext for retaliation. That might be tricky.

Re: China’s vast fleet is tipping the balance in the Pacific

#90

Post by stcredzero »

roenxi wrote: post #41
stcredzero wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realize that their system of government isn’t great and violates human rights on a massive scale, but in terms of foreign policy and the actual usage of their military for the past several decades, they’ve been a lot more reasonable and done far less damage than the us has. Basically, because the US geopolitical strategy has kept them in check. Give them access to the world's oceans and the global stage to play in,…

If they behave exactly like the United States that would be scary. Between Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria the US attempts to flatten about 1-1.5 countries per decade in the Middle East. If China used that strategy in South America, I'm not sure the US military would smile and quietly appreciate the parallels. They'd be angry.

Basically everyone who gets to be world hegemon ends up acting like bastards a little or a lot.
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