Live data from Hacker News

Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

arstechnica.com

71–80 of 131 posts

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#71
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC is already doing risk 5nm production and 3nm seems entirely viable. We won't see a 'wall' until sometime after 3nm (~2025). Depending on whom you talk to, 2nm and smaller process sizes are also viable. I wouldn't expect any serious shift away from silicon processes till 2030.

>"TSMC is already doing risk 5nm production and 3nm seems entirely viable." What is "risk production?" Is this similar to prototyping? I'm not familiar with this term. Thanks

maybe autocorrect of "risc"? I'm not familiar with the term as written either.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#72
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression is that they know moore's gravy train is over and they're scrambling to figure out new tricks to allow them to sell a new generation of processors every year. Personally, while I'm a little disappointed that processors 20 years from now might not be 4+ orders of magnitude faster than the one I have now, I wouldn't mind being able to buy a computer and not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I…

> not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I think we're pretty close to this point already I think we're already there. Ivy Bridge machines from 2012 can still get the job done today if paired with a solid complement of RAM and an SSD. Graphics is really the only area where those older machines are starting to be a limfac, as their inability to drive the latest 4K+ displays is starting to be more of an iss…

Agree 100%. I have an ivy bridge gaming desktop built 2013. I've upgraded the GPU twice and the RAM once. The performance gains on the CPU side just don't seem worth the money.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#73
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC is already doing risk 5nm production and 3nm seems entirely viable. We won't see a 'wall' until sometime after 3nm (~2025). Depending on whom you talk to, 2nm and smaller process sizes are also viable. I wouldn't expect any serious shift away from silicon processes till 2030.

>"TSMC is already doing risk 5nm production and 3nm seems entirely viable." What is "risk production?" Is this similar to prototyping? I'm not familiar with this term. Thanks

It's analogous to a release candidate in software. Basically means the fab line has passed all tests and run some test chips but hasn't actually done a production run of anything yet. The risk of issues / bad yield is higher than it would be after a few million chips have been run through the fab to work out all the kinks.

In practical terms it means they aren't building low cost consumer products yet, they are probably building low volume high $ parts that desperately need 5nm. They are also probably doing a bunch of IP verification runs, confirming process designs for all the building blocks that are used to build SoCs: ARM cores, memory controllers, IO controllers, etc.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#74
post #3

What are Intel and other semiconductors planning to pivot to when they can no longer reduce process size at a reasonable pace (i.e. now)? Is there a plan, or is it an existential wall?

Artificial support linkage with Windows 10, build X releases, and introduction of native 4K and higher resolutions.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#75
post #18
post #2

Semiaccurate claims that this is entirely Intel marketing fluff, and that in reality Intel can't get 10nm yield up to useful levels, now or ever. (that's a tl;dr for https://www.semiaccurate.com/2019/04/25/leaked-roadmap-shows... )

My understanding is that Intel is doing OK with smaller die size 10nm (Cannon Lake-U / Ice Lake-U) for Ultrabooks. But for bigger dies such as HEDT or server CPUs, the Ice Lake SP is still pretty much in the air with Intel's vague timeline of "sooner than expected end of 2020" claim.

Canon Lake is the opposite of OK. Its turbo modes are much lower than the previous gen, and it clocks itself lower by 600 MHz under the same workloads.

Intel's first crack at 10nm was a jaw-dropping affair for how poorly it showed.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#76
post #13
post #3

What are Intel and other semiconductors planning to pivot to when they can no longer reduce process size at a reasonable pace (i.e. now)? Is there a plan, or is it an existential wall?

My impression is that they know moore's gravy train is over and they're scrambling to figure out new tricks to allow them to sell a new generation of processors every year. Personally, while I'm a little disappointed that processors 20 years from now might not be 4+ orders of magnitude faster than the one I have now, I wouldn't mind being able to buy a computer and not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I…

> I wouldn't mind being able to buy a computer and not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I think we're pretty close to this point already).

I used an i5-2500k for 7 years. Only retired it because the rest of the computer was falling apart and I had already had too many computers. I think that a CPU built in $CURRENT_YEAR will be completely usable in 10 years.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone uses Macbooks. There are plenty of laptops with easily replaceable batteries and sane keyboards. Not even talking about real computers, where you can replace everything without any tools.

But at the same time, I'm considering replacing my 2015 HP laptop because my "A" key stopped working, and the cost to replace the keyboard is 25% the cost of a new laptop, which I'll need anyway in another year or two even if the keyboard were fixed.

Well I don't know what's up with your model, but I can get a replacement keyboard for my seven year old laptop for $25.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#78
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so the partner can test/validate the cpu, it's so the partners can test/validate their designs using the cpu. i.e. It's hard to test/validate a laptop design if no CPUs exist that work with it.

I'd say it's equally hard to validate a laptop design if all the CPUs are hidden away in some stockpile.

They are stockpiling working chips to prepare to send them to the OEMs for verification. Intel probably has to send out tens of thousands of CPUs for this, every OEM is going to want hundreds to verify their systems before they start mass production. It's an indicator that Intel thinks they have worked out the major yield issues and is preparing for production runs.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#79
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression is that they know moore's gravy train is over and they're scrambling to figure out new tricks to allow them to sell a new generation of processors every year. Personally, while I'm a little disappointed that processors 20 years from now might not be 4+ orders of magnitude faster than the one I have now, I wouldn't mind being able to buy a computer and not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I…

> I wouldn't mind being able to buy a computer and not have to worry about upgrading it for 10 years (I think we're pretty close to this point already). I used an i5-2500k for 7 years. Only retired it because the rest of the computer was falling apart and I had already had too many computers. I think that a CPU built in $CURRENT_YEAR will be completely usable in 10 years.

Memory and graphics are the limiting factors these days moreso than CPU.

Re: Intel Stockpiling 10nm Chips

#80
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semiaccurate is anti-Intel, they are not a bias free source of information.

The leaked roadmap is not from SemiAccurate though, it's from here: https://tweakers.net/nieuws/151984/roadmap-toont-dat-intel-i... If you had read the SemiAccurate article you would know that.

According to that image,10nm isn't due until 2Q 2021, in Tiger Lake and Rocket Lake U series and Y series.
Post reply on HN