Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#491

Post by sorenjan » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:25 AM UTC

aaomidi wrote: post #154

sorenjan wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with software updates in cars is that they change the car's behavior, and you end up with a car that did one thing yesterday, and a different thing today. Like steering into a barrier. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8a0jfh/autopil...

These videos are getting old, boring, and annoying. Everyone who drives a tesla knows how their car behaves. I don't expect it to see that barrier when I'm driving my model 3. Listen - it's hard to imagine what it's actually like to drive a Tesla and learning what it can or can't do. Everyone driving a tesla right now knows that the autopilot is more like a rookie co-pilot that needs monitoring and checking all along…

So you missed the point about how it started behaving differently overnight after an update? Getting people used to one behavior and then changing it without their knowledge is fine in mobile apps, not so much when it's driving your car in traffic.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#492

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:28 AM UTC

whttheuuu wrote: post #381

jaabe wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EV are still too expensive and Tesla ridiculously so. That’s not a problem if you can’t keep up with demand, but competition creeps up. Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less? We need better leadership though. I live in Denmark where EVs aren’t very widespread because of taxes. In Norway more than half of new vehicles sold are EV. Norway has more money than us, but they didn’t really…

"Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" Lol, is this a serious question?

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#493

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:29 AM UTC

tertius wrote: post #479

sliken wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google "tesla profit over time". You'll see losses from 2011-2013 (12 quarters or so) and a profit, that was the ramp up to the model S. Then a series of losses up to 2016 (13 quarters) where they shipped the model X. Then a series of losses up to 2018 (7 quarters) then 2 quarters of profit for the model 3. So generally Tesla has large costs for expanding battery production and new assembly lines for new models, and…

> If they stopped expanding they would be quite profitable. That's like saying if I stop eating I'd lose weight. Yes, but pretty soon I'll die. If they need to invest 1b to make 100m we know where that ends up. They can't scale back in the long term. Well, they can but they're not doing it right. It's hard to fix manufacturing after you're in the hole as deep as they are.

I don't follow, stolen from another comment on this post:

Quarter: Model 3 shipped ======= ============ Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0

If Tesla stopped hugely spending R&D for new products and new products they would be quite profitable. Keep in mind that 63,000 model 3 cars were likely on average $52k = $3.25B. 20% gross margin = $693M. Ah, found the actual number, automotive revenue = $ 3,723,861,000 but that includes the model X and Y as well as the 3.

Sure there would be some expense keeping the products up to date, but nothing like what is required to ramp up volumes and adding products like they have been doing.

So basically Tesla has been heavily reinvesting their revenue into future growth... and it's been working. If needed, they could slow growth and increase profit. Many of the Tesla competitors in the luxury segment would LOVE to fail and "only" ship 63,000 cars costing $50k each.

Tesla doesn't need new factories and products to not die, they could easily exist by keeping the model 3, S, and X up to date. Seems a poor decision to not finish the Y, but they could greatly reduce costs by changing an existing model 3 production line into a model Y production line. The cost should be greatly reduced since they share around 75% of the same parts.

So why can't they scale back? They just repaid $920M, they have $2.2B on hand, and had a automobile revenue of $3.7B with a 20% gross margin this quarter.

I don't get the "hole" they are in. Sure they will likely need loans to grow as crazy fast as they are (from last place to first in 7 years in the luxury/premium segment). But they could decide to just grow slower, why would that kill them?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#494

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:31 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #486

sliken wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard c…

Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ? It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#495

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:33 AM UTC

taneq wrote: post #482

sliken wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, it is huge. Potential market at $36k vs $28k is quite a bit smaller. At least Tesla bundled in autopilot at zero extra cost. It's not as good as originally promised, but still a pretty good deal in my opinion. Just depends how much people are willing to spend for good acceleration, avoiding trips to gas stations, and avoiding spending $1000-$1200 of gas per year. Of course electricity is not free either. My l…

> At least Tesla bundled in autopilot at zero extra cost. For about 15 minutes, before they rolled that back. Honestly that's the biggest red flag, to me - the chaotic mix of announcements, retractions, chops and changes to their pricing and marketing strategy. As an outsider it feels like the company has cool tech but lacks adult supervision.

Er, what? Go to https://www.tesla.com/model3, click on buy, next, next. You should see: "Autopilot Included". The car costs $39,500.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#496

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:38 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #486

sliken wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard c…

Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ? It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years…

Agreed. But Tesla IS doing really well on what consumers care about. Search for "Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other auto brand's, according to Consumer Reports" or similar articles.

Especially for first time electric car buyers, they really do seem rather worried about moving from a 488 mile range (like a honda accord) to a 240-370 mile range (Tesla). I suspect mostly because they haven't internalized the impact of being able to start each day with a full "tank".

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#497

Post by navigatesol » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:40 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #327

dogsgobork wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pool of people that put down $1000 thinking they were going to buy a $35k car, has to be much larger than the people willing to plunk down $2500 for a $48k car (the cheapest pre-order currently available). The multi year wait for the $35k version to be available (and quickly abandoned) can't help.

With the model 3 the deposit made a huge difference in delivery time. The production ramp was painfully slow (production hell) becuase it was a completely different car than the model S and X that Tesla was producing. Because of the slow ramp the incentive for a deposit was quite large. There was also pretty minimal competition for the model 3, mostly the chevy bolt which most don't really consider in the same class.…

>The production ramp for the Y is expected to be much better than the model 3. There's two announced locations (Reno and China). Tesla also has substantial experience building the model 3, and the Y shared about 75% of the parts. Additionally the model Y is a very conservative design. Same motors, same batteries, same nav, same display, same steering wheel, same seats, same autonomous hardware, same sensors, etc. The announced differences I've heard of are low tech tings like the chassis and suspension. Nothing crazy like the model X gull wing doors to throw a schedule off.

So let's see if I have this right: they reveal the Model Y 1.5 months ago, and say it's available in ~1 month of purchasing. From what everyone says, they hacked up a Model 3 and people drove in a prototype. Now we hear Tesla don't even know if they're going to build it in China or California. But don't worry, they've ordered all the tooling and machinery, even though they don't know which factory it'll be built in.

I'm am constantly astonished that people still believe what is happening over there. What will it take for people to realize this is a desperate company?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#498

Post by navigatesol » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:44 AM UTC

sytelus wrote: post #295

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #81

Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…

I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. Some analysts are saying random things like impact of tax credit and competition coming in to EV market. I still don't see anything close to Tesla offering in EV space, at least in US. They really need to focus on offering EV at $18K price point wit…

>I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later.

That's what you conclude after seeing them produce more cars than they delivered last quarter, with inventory build-ups all over the country, and quarter-over-quarter decrease in revenues, even though they slashed prices? That they still can't keep up with demand?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#499

Post by gchq-7703 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:45 AM UTC

pbreit wrote: post #389

golfer wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specifically what remains? They are basically the only OEM pushing self driving without lidar. Their manufacturing facilities are childish compared to other large automakers. Solar City, powerwall, and the solar roof are huge money losers and barely make a dent in the P&L statement. Maybe just the brand name? But will the brand have the cache once it suffers bankruptcy? Maybe it will.

First US car company in 60 years, electric at that. Best crash test ratings. Highest owner satisfaction. First US-owned factory in China. Built in about 6 months. Ability and willingness to use OTA updates. Willingness and ability to put auto-pilot on the road for consumers. Ridiculous performance. Better chip than Nvidia. Top 2 auto battery supplier. Best selling lux car in US (ICE or EV). Dramatically better batter…

Sorry, what does `FSD` refer to?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#500

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:46 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #487

sliken wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Closer. No supercharging network, tiny screen (7" vs 15"), no AWD, slower (0-60 in 7.6 vs 5.5 seconds). At least the range is close (258 vs 300). Tesla does pretty well on safety (passive and active) as well. My main concern was did Hyundai skimp on the cooling and battery management system like Nissan did with the leaf. The result with leaf was rapidly degrading batteries that lost more than 25% in the first 3 years…

No evidence that consumers want a large screen instead of physical knobs. And seriously who on earth cares about acceleration beyond a certain point. I mean come on. Nobody is drag racing their car on the way to the supermarket to buy groceries.

If Elon called me up and asked how to improve the model 3 (or future model Y), I'd definitely mention a few more buttons, or maybe a dial. Sure I want buttons, knobs, AND a big screen... but not enough to pay $80k and up for a model S. So given the choice between a model 3 and the competitors (ICE or electric) I have a hard time finding something better.

I'm hoping there's a model Y killer out before the model Y ships, but if not I think I'll be really happy in a Y.

As for the acceleration. I'm married and have a kid. I drive pretty conservatively. I haven't had an accident of any kind or even a speeding ticket in 20 years. I did however find numerous occasions to floor the model S I was renting and every time it resulted in a huge grin. I'd wouldn't trade that acceleration for say a Hyundai electric that has a 0-60 in 7.6 seconds just for some extra knobs/buttons. Nor is the Hyundai cheap, starts around $38k. In a traditional ICE car the acceleration has significant down sides, cost, MPG, noise, weight, size, packaging efficiency, etc. On a Tesla the acceleration there's not nearly as much of a downside.