Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by benj111 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:00 AM UTC

_Codemonkeyism wrote: post #222

bufferoverflow wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither did Amazon for many years. They are scaling up.

Tesla has no network effects as a marketplace and doesn't drive competitors out of the market. Both things Amazon traded their profits in for.

There are network effects, maybe not as strong, but they're there. Theres the supercharger network, if you have one car of a certain brand in your house hold, the others are probably disproportionately likely to be of the same brand, and this can radiate out to friends, family and work colleagues. Theres probably a 'no one got fired for buying IBM' element also. Tesla is kind of the default electric car, you aren't going to be judged harshly for buying one because most ev buyers do.

I'm struggling to think of any individual car manufacturer that has driven other manufacturers out of the market. The market doesn't really work in a way, capital requirements are too high, lead times too long, to make that possible. Its still reasonable for them to forgo short term profits, just not quite to the same extent as the winner takes all nature of the internet.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by taneq » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:01 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #471

dannyw wrote: post #454

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People expected $35k before incentives. That means an out of pocket cost of approx $28k. People did not expect $36k. $28k vs $36k is HUGE.

Agreed, it is huge. Potential market at $36k vs $28k is quite a bit smaller. At least Tesla bundled in autopilot at zero extra cost. It's not as good as originally promised, but still a pretty good deal in my opinion. Just depends how much people are willing to spend for good acceleration, avoiding trips to gas stations, and avoiding spending $1000-$1200 of gas per year. Of course electricity is not free either. My l…

> At least Tesla bundled in autopilot at zero extra cost.

For about 15 minutes, before they rolled that back.

Honestly that's the biggest red flag, to me - the chaotic mix of announcements, retractions, chops and changes to their pricing and marketing strategy. As an outsider it feels like the company has cool tech but lacks adult supervision.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by aedron » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:02 AM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #407

radium3d wrote: post #252

Seasonal 4th to 1st quarter may have been a loss but these numbers stand out to me as being a bit more important. Cars sold: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Revenue Q1 2019: $4.5 billion Q1 2018: $3.4 billion Q1 2017: $2.7 billion Q1 2016: $1.6 billion Q1 2015: $1.1 billion Q1 2014: $713 million Q1 2013: $562 million Q1 2012: $30…

Yep, the numbers that matter continue to trend up. More importantly, at this point those numbers are becoming a huge problem for essentially all their competitors. Most of these are at this point bleeding market share to Tesla that they are trying to recover from by launching products that clearly are a lot less competitive and are probably being sold at a loss right now. They are going to be bleeding cash while they…

If Tesla is selling cars at or below cost in order to increase the quoted numbers, that is obviously a very bad place to be for Tesla.

Someone upthread quoted that half the cars were sold in the last ten days of Q1, after a big price drop. Combine this with hemorrhaging cash, then I would definitely not say that the above is the only numbers that matter.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by hef19898 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:02 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #201

nihonde wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My take: Panasonic is moving its chips from Tesla to Toyota/Mazda and betting the incumbent Japanese makers will be better positioned to capitalize on EV sales over the long term. It’s not strange for a 100+ year old company playing the long game. I also think Tesla’s function for many of its suppliers was to prove that Americans will buy EVs, and their expectations are fairly low about how much more Tesla will accom…

Well the weird thing is Panasonic is complaining about not selling enough batteries. Seems kinda crazy considering the rapid scale of Tesla's ramp up, not to mention secondary uses like powerwalls and grid sized battery systems.

I won't speculate why Panasonic is putting the brakes on. Could be anything from financing to some new guy at Panasonic not liking the color choices of the Model Y.

But it is telling us something that the most integrated of Tesla's partners is putting on the brakes. And I remember some reports about less then optimal conditions in the giga factory. And these conditions, even if they are only half true, would the opposite of what Japanese companies would like to see

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by hef19898 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:08 AM UTC

karkisuni wrote: post #348

foota wrote: post #312

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I read that the plant is operating way below what the capacity should be, so this could be a reflection of them trying to improve on their utilization of what they have now instead of throwing money at the problem.

That was the explanation Elon gave via twitter: "Pana cell lines at Giga are only at ~24GWh/yr & have been a constraint on Model 3 output since July [...] Tesla won’t spend money on more capacity until existing lines get closer to 35GWh theoretical." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056 Not sure I understand the difference in costs between 2 lines at full capacity vs 3 lines at 66% capacity. Obviou…

From a cost perspective two lines at 90%+ are better then three at 66%. But considering that Panasonic is putting the brakes on might as well be the result rather than the cause of Tesla's struggles.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by threeseed » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:08 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #365

Waterluvian wrote: post #339

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Your last sentence is what interests me the most. How many people will be out $1000 or $2500 if Tesla goes under? I'm assuming deposits are about as low a priority as you can get for recovering money in a bankruptcy?

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard c…

Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ?

It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by threeseed » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:09 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #477

michaelt wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). I suspect that's because Tesla have had batteries on the road for much longer than Audi, meaning they've got better data to base the battery-life-vs-discharge-depth trade-off on. After all, everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get…

Closer. No supercharging network, tiny screen (7" vs 15"), no AWD, slower (0-60 in 7.6 vs 5.5 seconds). At least the range is close (258 vs 300). Tesla does pretty well on safety (passive and active) as well. My main concern was did Hyundai skimp on the cooling and battery management system like Nissan did with the leaf. The result with leaf was rapidly degrading batteries that lost more than 25% in the first 3 years…

No evidence that consumers want a large screen instead of physical knobs.

And seriously who on earth cares about acceleration beyond a certain point. I mean come on. Nobody is drag racing their car on the way to the supermarket to buy groceries.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by TheTruth1234 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:10 AM UTC

tomcam wrote: post #414

base698 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought a Model S last year and around the time of weedgate I decided the risk was too great and sold the car. It seems from the used market that the value has plummeted. The one I bought is easy $40k less just a year old. Repairs and parts availability is one of the biggest risks. Could easily see situations where a small fender bender causes a total loss.

Don’t understand the downvotes? Not original poster so I hope I can bring this up.

Commenting on year 1 depreciation is like commenting that 2+2=4.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by sorenjan » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:16 AM UTC

kohtatsu wrote: post #308

sorenjan wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen this thread [0] that's supposedly about their backend? Doesn't sound like years ahead, it sounds like an overstretched software startup chasing the latest silicon valley trends. How well will their cars work in 20 years? Will they have sorted out the service issues in five years? Besides, when the other car manufacturers starts putting out electric cars with interiors that consists of more than a cost s…

Wait–let subcontrators worry about developing state-of-the-art capabilities for them? FWIW I think they should be way more conservative with how they advertise Autopilot, but the only way something like that is getting shipped at this stage is from in-house.

My point was that there's no reason Tesla needs to be first to market with self driving cars, they already have a unique selling point in their electric cars. The car industry is full of suppliers doing all kinds of advanced stuff. Ferrari uses dampers from MagneRide and Öhlins, brakes from Brembo, transmissions from Graziano, and so on. Rimac makes hybrid drive trains, Bosch makes ABS and ESC, few brands makes their own seats, and so on.

Bosch have their own autonomous driving development. I don't know how far along they are compared to Tesla, partly because Elon likes to boast where others prefer to hold back, but so what if Tesla would've been a few years later with self driving than others?

https://www.bosch-mobility-solutions.com/en/highlights/autom...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

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Post by sorenjan » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 10:23 AM UTC

kylecordes wrote: post #191

sorenjan wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen this thread [0] that's supposedly about their backend? Doesn't sound like years ahead, it sounds like an overstretched software startup chasing the latest silicon valley trends. How well will their cars work in 20 years? Will they have sorted out the service issues in five years? Besides, when the other car manufacturers starts putting out electric cars with interiors that consists of more than a cost s…

I don't understand why some perceive the big screen as a "cost-saving touchscreen". It's so much bigger than any other car uses, I would guess other makers perceive it as a "way too expensive touchscreen”. I do not know the actual manufacturing cost comparison between the Tesla big screen and the corresponding set of buttons and other cars, but I think the key difference is a radically minimalist design aesthetic. I…

I could understand if they just replaced the infotainment with a big screen like in the model S, but the only reason they replaced the gauge cluster with a section in the center screen is to save costs. Comparing for example with the interiors from Audi A3, Mercedes A class, or Volvo XC40 they all look much more finished and developed and practical, where the Tesla model 3 looks like an unfinished afterthought.