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Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

nytimes.com

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Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#241

Post by mdorazio »

aaomidi wrote: post #154
sorenjan wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with software updates in cars is that they change the car's behavior, and you end up with a car that did one thing yesterday, and a different thing today. Like steering into a barrier. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8a0jfh/autopil...

These videos are getting old, boring, and annoying. Everyone who drives a tesla knows how their car behaves. I don't expect it to see that barrier when I'm driving my model 3. Listen - it's hard to imagine what it's actually like to drive a Tesla and learning what it can or can't do. Everyone driving a tesla right now knows that the autopilot is more like a rookie co-pilot that needs monitoring and checking all along…

Are you actually serious right now? The number of people I see driving a Tesla on the freeway and doing anything other than monitoring and checking all along the way is ridiculous. A huge percentage of Tesla drivers absolutely do not know, or care, that autopilot requires constant attention.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#243

Post by robertcope »

aaomidi wrote: post #154
sorenjan wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with software updates in cars is that they change the car's behavior, and you end up with a car that did one thing yesterday, and a different thing today. Like steering into a barrier. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8a0jfh/autopil...

These videos are getting old, boring, and annoying. Everyone who drives a tesla knows how their car behaves. I don't expect it to see that barrier when I'm driving my model 3. Listen - it's hard to imagine what it's actually like to drive a Tesla and learning what it can or can't do. Everyone driving a tesla right now knows that the autopilot is more like a rookie co-pilot that needs monitoring and checking all along…

Tell that to the woman I saw driving down I-45 recently in a Tesla. Going well under the flow of traffic in the left lane, doing her makeup, completely not paying attention to anything but herself.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#244

Post by taneq »

2bitencryption wrote: post #17
S_A_P wrote: post #14

As someone who does not have any stake in Tesla, I dont see a path forward for them without a company with the bank account on the scale of Apple/Google/Amazon funding them. Bootstrapping software is hard, hardware is harder, cars are 10x harder than those squared...

I think the smartest thing Musk ever did for Tesla was to start sending rockets into space and landing them over and over. It really makes you think, "Hey, if they can do all that rocket science, they can probably make a sedan." (This is mostly a joke... but it's also not entirely a joke)

That's actually a very good point - Tesla's current "halo car" isn't the Model S or the Roadster 2.0, it's the Falcon Heavy.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#245

Post by mamon »

sliken wrote: post #171
slg wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any Audi, Porsche, or BMW on the horizon that will be close to competing on price with the Model 3? They all seem to be targeting the Model S/X market and Tesla's results seem to be showing that market is shrinking.

I agree, but from what I can tell the Audi, Porsche, and BMW are targeting where the model S was... not where it is today. I.e. range in the 200-260 miles, not 370. Seems likely by the time any of the competition is shipping in reasonable numbers (already hearing complaints of limited battery supply from the German companies) there's likely to be a model S with the improve battery pack based on the same tech as the m…

It seems that beating Tesla in range game is quite easy[1] I think BMW or Audi don't do that simply because they do not care enough - they optimize for different use case, i.e. daily commute, not 1500 miles road trips.

[1] https://electrek.co/2018/09/07/bmw-i3-100-kwh-battery-pack-l...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#246

Post by dogsgobork »

rjdagost wrote: post #229
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #81

Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…

This wasn't reported much, but Tesla also expanded their ABL (Asset Based Lending) credit agreement by $500M in March 2019: https://ir.tesla.com/node/19561/html Without that, they would have $500M less cash on hand. They shipped half of their cars in the final 10 days of Q1. Finances must have been pretty tight at the start of March. That was around the time they announced they are closing all stores, firing sales pe…

The pool of people that put down $1000 thinking they were going to buy a $35k car, has to be much larger than the people willing to plunk down $2500 for a $48k car (the cheapest pre-order currently available).

The multi year wait for the $35k version to be available (and quickly abandoned) can't help.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#247

Post by yeefest »

kylecordes wrote: post #176
S_A_P wrote: post #14

As someone who does not have any stake in Tesla, I dont see a path forward for them without a company with the bank account on the scale of Apple/Google/Amazon funding them. Bootstrapping software is hard, hardware is harder, cars are 10x harder than those squared...

Tesla as a part of Apple (whose cash stuck between mattress cushions far exceeds the market cap of Tesla) would be unstoppable. Also, a Tesla car is an iPhone in a world of flip phones. The Tesla design ethos fits Apple pretty nicely.

Imagine a Tesla with iOS as its OS. Wait... is that good or bad?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#248

Post by mdorazio »

kylecordes wrote: post #191
sorenjan wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen this thread [0] that's supposedly about their backend? Doesn't sound like years ahead, it sounds like an overstretched software startup chasing the latest silicon valley trends. How well will their cars work in 20 years? Will they have sorted out the service issues in five years? Besides, when the other car manufacturers starts putting out electric cars with interiors that consists of more than a cost s…

I don't understand why some perceive the big screen as a "cost-saving touchscreen". It's so much bigger than any other car uses, I would guess other makers perceive it as a "way too expensive touchscreen”. I do not know the actual manufacturing cost comparison between the Tesla big screen and the corresponding set of buttons and other cars, but I think the key difference is a radically minimalist design aesthetic. I…

I've worked on the costing side of things for head units and instrument clusters, so let me weigh in here since there are a couple things at play.

First is that Tesla just straight up doesn't play the traditional head unit provider game. Most OEMs go with one or two hardware suppliers (Denso, Pioneer, Kenwood, etc.) for their head units, pretty much all of which are completely and utterly behind on technology and also ridiculously overpriced for a variety of reasons. They also add expensive OS/software licenses or in-house development for, again, behind the times products to run on the head units and pair with your phone. Tesla, on the other hand, just grabs a good-enough touch screen, powers it with Nvidia hardware, and cranks out some pretty software built on top of Linux that mostly works.

Second is labor cost. Instrument cluster hardware isn't free, but it also isn't terribly expensive for your standard gauges in mass-manufacturing bulk. However, labor is not cheap to actually wire up, place, and test all those gauges. Wiring is one of those things that's hard to automate, so your costs between the hardware and labor boost the BOM cost up quite a bit. Tesla, on the other hand, just runs a single CAN bus connector to their center console display hardware, pulls the info they need to update it, and calls it a day.

The net result is that the total production cost of a single center screen ends up being quite a bit lower than the equivalent head unit + instrument cluster in a traditional car.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#249

Post by sk5t »

Spooky23 wrote: post #217
newsoul2019 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was close to buying a used Tesla from Tesla, but this is making me pause. Am I being unreasonable? I live in the Bay Area where I feel like the only person without a Tesla or two.

I would only lease a Tesla. Why be stuck holding the bag if the proverbial shit hits the fan?

AFAIK Tesla hasn't been friendly to lease arrangements so far. Parts and repair has always been my concern there--other manufacturers have a good history of parts, a robust aftermarket, etc. Porsche's EV will be the one to watch in this regard.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#250

Post by takeda »

rjdagost wrote: post #229
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #81

Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…

This wasn't reported much, but Tesla also expanded their ABL (Asset Based Lending) credit agreement by $500M in March 2019: https://ir.tesla.com/node/19561/html Without that, they would have $500M less cash on hand. They shipped half of their cars in the final 10 days of Q1. Finances must have been pretty tight at the start of March. That was around the time they announced they are closing all stores, firing sales pe…

I wouldn't be surprised, I actually did not even know they revealed model Y.
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